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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 03 Dec 2018, 22:36:19
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Cog wrote:Crude oil price jumped 4% overnight pricipally on the US/China agreement.

Dow futures implied opening up 500 points.

To the extent that crude prices move on implied rates of economic growth, that makes lots of sense.

The terrible stock market "collapse" the doomers were recently calling for (yet again) isn't looking too realistic. Even without adding the implied 50ish S&P points from the pre-markets, whether you look at a year, six months, etc. the market is looking pretty flat, overall.

75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds-cnbc

Word of the truth of the world gets around at the top.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Dec 2018, 05:51:18
by Cog
Except for the fact there are zero real world indicators that a recession is likely.

I heard the same recession prediction in 2017 for the year 2018.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Dec 2018, 10:55:29
by onlooker
Cog wrote:Except for the fact there are zero real world indicators that a recession is likely.

I heard the same recession prediction in 2017 for the year 2018.

Hardly Clog.
The vast imbalances created by 10 years of unceasing goosing will unleash a non-linear avalanche of reversions to the mean and rapid unwinding of extremes.


BY CHARLES HUGH SMITH
POSTED 
SEPTEMBER 15, 2018

The Next Financial Crisis Is Right on Schedule (2019)

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-next-fin ... dule-2019/

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Dec 2018, 11:28:05
by Cog
Have you looked back through Charles Hugh Smith predictions over the last ten years? His website has them. He is consistently wrong. Why any normal human would give him a bit of credence is beyond me.

@onlooker

Seriously dude. You need to unleash yourself from doomer blogs. I know. I used to be a doomer and followed the same blogs. Look at real economic data and liberate yourself from the doomer chains that have imprisoned you.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Dec 2018, 17:48:46
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds-cnbc

Word of the truth of the world gets around at the top.

Dude, get a grip. Every year, various internet "finance" sites bent on selling you something claim a big market crash is coming -- NEXT year.

Funny thing -- once a year, they add one to the year, and keep posting the same da*n ad.

I've been seeing these "ultra-rich" claim ads for quite a few months now.

CNBC is more and more of a liberal-leaning hack site, which will publish anything they believe will make them money. Entertaining, perhaps. Credible, increasingly, not so much.

Re your last statement, how much time do you spend on various conspiracy sites? If the truth were out there, would you know where to find it? (I don't claim I do, but at least I admit it).

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 01:33:36
by asg70


You're linking to the same article in multiple threads again. Don't do that. It's unnecessary and comes across as hysterical Chuck Heston style end-is-nigh spamming.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 04:05:06
by onlooker
asg70 wrote:


You're linking to the same article in multiple threads again. Don't do that. It's unnecessary and comes across as hysterical Chuck Heston style end-is-nigh spamming.

I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 08:39:37
by Cog
It's against common sense. We saw the article in the other thread. No point in posting it again unless you think the rest of us have Alzheimers.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:45:31
by asg70
onlooker wrote:I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:


Because this site gets what, 20 new posts per day maximum? What are the odds the few of us who come here on a regular basis will miss it and will need you to spam multiple threads simultaneously? If it's not against the rules, it should be, and I will flag you mercilessly for it.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 15:58:50
by Outcast_Searcher
onlooker wrote:I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:


Spamming is bad. Period. MMMKay?

Being a jerk is bad, even if you can get away with it because it's not formally against the rules.

For example, I can make my house, yard, etc. VERY ugly and unkempt and weed filled, etc. I can paint things all kinds of weird colors my neighbors hate. After all, it's not illegal.

But how well will I get along with my neighbors then? (Today, I get along with them great, just via a little communication / thoughtfulness about changes. (i.e. "I'm planning to paint my rusting fence black. Does that seem OK to you?") And we all help each other out with various things. How is that not better, in principle?)

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 16:11:02
by onlooker
Well, I thought I was actually doing a service as perhaps one or more posters may focus on one thread and miss or avoid another. I bet you guys would not complain so much if it was a optimistic and cheerful article hmm

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Dec 2018, 16:17:07
by Outcast_Searcher
onlooker wrote:Well, I thought I was actually doing a service as perhaps one or more posters may focus on one thread and miss or avoid another. I bet you guys would not complain so much if it was a optimistic and cheerful article hmm

Well, good to hear that you're coming up with such a "great" justification to post like a jerk,
since that makes it OK. :roll:

And I'd object to you wasting peoples' time and site resources spamming duplicate messages regardless of the tone of the message. There's nothing wrong with posting bad news. But bad news all the time, and very bad predictions all the time to project false claims of doom is just a waste of time and space, IMO.

But I suppose everyone needs hobbies. :|

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:41:45
by Cog
Back in business boys. Sorry onlooker. This was sort of your last hope. :-D

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -Deal.html


Oil prices shot up on Friday after the stubborn holdout Iran agreed to have OPEC reduce oil production by a total of 800,000 bpd, while non-OPEC nations, led by Russia, are reportedly adding another 400,000 bpd of cuts, for a total of 1.2 million bpd OPEC+ production cut.

At 09:31 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was soaring 3.73% at $53.41, while Brent Crude was surging 4.15% at $62.55.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:48:49
by onlooker
Cog wrote:Back in business boys. Sorry onlooker. This was sort of your last hope. :-D

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -Deal.html


Oil prices shot up on Friday after the stubborn holdout Iran agreed to have OPEC reduce oil production by a total of 800,000 bpd, while non-OPEC nations, led by Russia, are reportedly adding another 400,000 bpd of cuts, for a total of 1.2 million bpd OPEC+ production cut.

At 09:31 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was soaring 3.73% at $53.41, while Brent Crude was surging 4.15% at $62.55.

Yep, its a foregone conclusion now :cry:

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 01:42:26
by dissident
Cornucopian wankers. Like that moron in the other thread who thinks that a non inflation adjusted hourly wage graph proves how rosy and great things are. Let's just pretend that debt driven GDP has nothing to do with it. There was something known as the business cycle back in the good old days. For some mysterious reason this cycle has disappeared. One has to ask hard questions as to why. Capitalism has a natural boom and bust cycle. If it is not there, then you don't actually have capitalism, you have some sort of managed capitalism. And this is what we have in the US. An oligarchy which operates oligopolies with full collusion of all levels of government and with orchestrated maneuvering of the banking sector. Anyone who keeps chirping about free markets needs to open up an economics textbook and look up the definition of free market.

The problem with managed capitalism and managed finances is that the managers are not omniscient and inconsistencies that would have been resolved by stochastic processes accumulate as the adjustment is artificially suppressed. We already saw the onset of large scale systemic crisis in 2008. We got Pancho Villa money printing in the US to "solve" this. In fact, nothing has been solved and the managers could just barely stabilize the situation. This didn't last long and the system is destabilizing again.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-m ... dle-class/

(Look at the inflation adjust median incomes for males in the US, it has been falling since the early 1970s. There has been an offset from the increase in female incomes).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/artic ... covery.htm

Figure 10 shows that there has been no recovery in the drop in labor force participation after the 2008 recession. Keep this in mind when looking at all the income statistics. Income statistics do not count people who are not working. So millions of unpaid working age citizens are falling through the cracks.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 09:12:03
by vtsnowedin
dissident wrote:Cornucopian wankers. Like that moron in the other thread who thinks that a non inflation adjusted hourly wage graph proves how rosy and great things are. Let's just pretend that debt driven GDP has nothing to do with it. There was something known as the business cycle back in the good old days. For some mysterious reason this cycle has disappeared. One has to ask hard questions as to why. Capitalism has a natural boom and bust cycle. If it is not there, then you don't actually have capitalism, you have some sort of managed capitalism. And this is what we have in the US. An oligarchy which operates oligopolies with full collusion of all levels of government and with orchestrated maneuvering of the banking sector. Anyone who keeps chirping about free markets needs to open up an economics textbook and look up the definition of free market.

The problem with managed capitalism and managed finances is that the managers are not omniscient and inconsistencies that would have been resolved by stochastic processes accumulate as the adjustment is artificially suppressed. We already saw the onset of large scale systemic crisis in 2008. We got Pancho Villa money printing in the US to "solve" this. In fact, nothing has been solved and the managers could just barely stabilize the situation. This didn't last long and the system is destabilizing again.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-m ... dle-class/

(Look at the inflation adjust median incomes for males in the US, it has been falling since the early 1970s. There has been an offset from the increase in female incomes).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/artic ... covery.htm

Figure 10 shows that there has been no recovery in the drop in labor force participation after the 2008 recession. Keep this in mind when looking at all the income statistics. Income statistics do not count people who are not working. So millions of unpaid working age citizens are falling through the cracks.

And yet with all that gloom and doom there are 156.8 million people in the USA with jobs 129.6 million of them full time 27 million part time. with the average wage at $22.95 / hour. Also the median income in the USA is above $61,000 per family. Apparently the oligarchs forgot to rip off a few of us.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 10:28:41
by Cog
People forget that a lot of baby boomers have either retired or getting ready to. We aren't employed and don't want to be employed.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 11:33:20
by onlooker
Cog wrote:People forget that a lot of baby boomers have either retired or getting ready to. We aren't employed and don't want to be employed.

Social Security: A Ticking Time Bomb
By Stephen Moore

8O
https://www.cato.org/publications/comme ... -time-bomb

Social Security now has an unfunded long-term liability of roughly $5.5 trillion-which is larger than the entire national debt. It is said that demographics are destiny, and nowhere is that more true than in this retirement program. In 1950 there were 17 workers for every retired person. Today there are three. By 2030 there will be just two.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 11:47:36
by Cog
Those two will just have to work harder and be taxed more. Its our gift to the millennials.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postPosted: Mon 10 Dec 2018, 13:22:58
by vtsnowedin
Not just the 44 million that are retired. There are 15 million disabled and another 15 million in college or job training and about 13 million providing care for someone at home. Apparently there are now few stay at home spouses other then those giving care.
At any rate few of these people want or can accept a job with their current conditions.