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Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 03:15:26
by longpig
It seems this peakoil thing is a load of crap, Western Canadian Select crude is at $5 a barrel, same price for a bigmac meal. WTI $20 same price as in 2002, when was this site started? what about twilight in the desert, is the oil price lower than when this site started up?

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 03:46:27
by Outcast_Searcher
longpig wrote:It seems this peakoil thing is a load of crap, Western Canadian Select crude is at $5 a barrel, same price for a bigmac meal. WTI $20 same price as in 2002, when was this site started? what about twilight in the desert, is the oil price lower than when this site started up?

Since OPEC got cranked up re disrupting prices in the 70's, over time, as demand has grown, production has followed. Sometimes technology helped, and (with some delay) higher prices from a supply shortage helped too, when demand got ahead.

So yeah, the incessant braying that we're about to run out of oil just never stands up. Demand doesn't rise every year -- a bad economy will drop it (like happened in 2009), but it has sure risen ALMOST every year. (That may well change when EV's take over much of the global car market, but that could take decades).

Re current prices, there is an apparent LARGE decrease in demand, re COVID-19, which will last as long as social distancing is a widespread thing (and no one can accurately forecast that, at least not yet). Also, there's the whole KSA vs. Russia fight over production. So you've got the market anticipating overproduction AND a significant drop in demand -- so prices collapse, at least for now.

But this is kind of a special case, at least as far as COVID-19, so it's not like there is suddenly a huge unexpected global supply of oil (re new reserves) or anything.

...

Two things I've learned re oil prices by observing data / discussion here for over a decade:

1). The price of oil is highly volatile over time. (Don't like it -- it will likely change before very long, and often for reasons few expected).

2). The price of oil is VERY hard to predict ahead of time. We used to have an annual contest and try to pick prices (ranges, timing, etc) for the current year, factoring in the news, etc, every year. Pretty much a random number generator, overall. Fortunes re who was winning and losing would often change wildly from month to month. And year to year.

...

FWIW, most of the folks around here have an interest in things like energy, but no longer view peak oil as an urgent thing -- it takes time, but many people will change their mind if the facts are obvious enough -- for long enough. (But certainly not all, and there are still peak oil in-our-face faithful folks around here.

But views are widespread. I joined mainly to learn stuff about oil and energy to help make me a better long term investor.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 07:16:38
by SeaGypsy
Peak oil happened a few weeks ago. The OP is a moron. Shut your trap & wait.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 07:53:13
by shortonoil
Should this site be shut down


I am absolutely amazed that it hasn't been already. Then again, maybe all these posts are being delivered to a bit bucket? It appears that only "approved" media are being allowed to report, or comment on the virus. Keeping the hoax going is a matter of the utmost national security.

OP may not make it in the real world that is now here. It should invest in a good hard hat that can deflect 2X4s.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 08:05:16
by diemos
Price is not useful.

You can always drop the price by doing things to crush demand. It's production that matters.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 09:35:53
by asg70
shortonoil wrote:I am absolutely amazed that it hasn't been already.


The best thing about shutting down this site would be to deny people like you a soapbox.

The worst part about this site post 2008 is that the nature of the discussion simply doesn't match the domain. This is just a generic doomer site. The actual peakoil content is slim to none. The news links off the homepage also make the site look like a joke. That is probably why the moderators saw fit to allow you to spout your ETP nonsense because ETP has been really the only catalyst to talk about oil in doomy terms. The only really legitimate doomy discussion prior to COVID has been related to AGW and there are plenty of other places where that sort of discussion happens.

In the old days there was a very clearly focused discussion about anticipating Mad Max doom and trying to get ahead of it via preps. It's instructive that despite a few people trying to pump life back into doomerism there's little in the way of prep talk other than Armageddon trolling us with sarcastic #gotgold hashtags. It was much more interesting when people were really interested in reskilling, permaculture, off-grid systems, etc... Now it's just angry flamewars over competing short-term predictions, ideological grandstanding, and conspiracy theories du jour.

I've reached a personal breaking point where I just threw my hands up and started using the ignore filter more aggressively (including on you). The problem is if I ignore all the posters who I feel don't contribute anything useful to the discussion I'm going to be left with maybe 2-3 active posters. I mean, there's a certain sport involved in trying to engage with people who, frankly, lack proper critical thinking skills or the ability to defend their fringe positions, but I'm really exhausted over it. I am not looking for groupthink but I'd at least like to see a genuine debate where it seems like the other side is able to incorporate my rebuttals and evolve their positions, etc... That doesn't happen. People come here to spout dogma and hurl insults if it's not an echo-chamber.

If I didn't have so much extra time on my hands I'd visit less often. I used to come maybe once every week or two, typically on a Sunday morning when I have nothing else on my mind and no other things to do. Prior to COVID if I didn't play whack-a-mole I'd be lucky if there were even 2-3 posts from the more rational members, so the site couldn't really hold my attention more than 5 minutes. There's just not a lot to be gleaned here. The last time I got anything useful was someone posting a link to the COVID dashboard. That's about it.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 10:53:34
by Newfie
ASG,

Welcome to humanity.

There is no escape, wherever you go you will find folks who defy logic. They feel the same about you so it kind of balances out.

There is an old saying:
I don’t trust anybody but me and you and I’m not so sure about you.

I’m no different, I feel most people are not critical thinkers.

I think Men’s Health summer it up pretty well in a survey they did. 87% of males believe they are above average drivers.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 10:56:13
by Newfie
Long pig,

No the site should not be shut down. It is here for the long haul. This Peak Oil phenomena is not and never was a one act play. The GE more like “Days of Our Lives” it evolves over time with new actors. Eventually it will come about and when it does you will be shocked. 8)

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:13:47
by mousepad
Newfie wrote: I feel most people are not critical thinkers.


Practically everybody claims to be a critical thinker. Are they all wrong?
I believe most are right, they are critical thinkers.
But they value different things differently. That's why there are different opinions. Different priorities, different ideas.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:18:42
by Newfie
Mouse,

That’s probably true. Lots of different types of intelligence.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:22:44
by jedrider
Why is Saudi Arabia increasing production when the price of crude is nosediving? I'm not quite understanding the motivation for that. They can't be THAT desperate for cash, can they? Of course, it will crush shale oil production, but that can just be shuddered in place until further production is needed. So, I still don't understand that. The Soviet Union won't collapse again just because of low oil prices. No?

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:42:13
by ROCKMAN
diemos- Yeah, I guess Pig hasn't been around here long enough to have learned that PO has nothing to do with the price of oil. Be it $145/bbl or $18//bbl. Neither of those prices in the recent past eliminated the reality of peak oil. Amazing how many new "experts" pop up at times like this. After working 40+ years in the oil patch just makes me feel really f_cking old. LOL.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:56:06
by JuanP
I did most of my Peak Oil learning at TOD, not here, but TOD is no more, so here I am. I think that Peak Oil is a matter of when, not if, so this site remains relevant. It also serves a social role, IMO, allowing us freaks to come here and gather since most of these issues are not welcome in in person polite conversations.

So, no, this site should not be shut down, IMO, though I agree that a lot of the articles they post on the main page are far out and most of us here are obviously insane, myself included.

Long live peakoil.com!

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 11:59:40
by JuanP
mousepad wrote:
Newfie wrote: I feel most people are not critical thinkers.


Practically everybody claims to be a critical thinker. Are they all wrong?
I believe most are right, they are critical thinkers.
But they value different things differently. That's why there are different opinions. Different priorities, different ideas.


I believe most people are wrong about most things most of the time. When you observe the many different and contradictory positions on any given subject, how could most be right? Our own opinions of our critical thinking skills are no exceptions.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 14:16:57
by asg70
mousepad wrote:But they value different things differently. That's why there are different opinions. Different priorities, different ideas.


You are entitled to your opinions but not your own facts. The post-truth era empowers nuttery on the basis of subjectivity as some sort of human right. That kind of attitude becomes dangerous when masses of people's behavior are driven by obvious falsehoods, like anti-vaxx, AGW denial, etc...

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The peak oil movement at one time was, albeit jumping the gun, basing itself in intellectualism. Al Bartlett and Catton were hardly Alex Jones types. Yes, there was and still is a strong anti-establishment strain among collapsitarians, but the signal to noise ratio of trying to prove a point through data was far better then. Even when it was wrong, like The Oil Drum, I think they put in an honest effort, colored by bias it may have been. Now, however, you have people who seem to thrive on trying to prove that white is black and up is down. Whatever happens on the world stage MUST be fake because this is the filter upon which they view the world. This attitude is just wholly stupid on every level and yet they've really convinced themselves of this, that if they can construct some sort of motive aka "the elites gain X, the enemy of the elites lose Y" then that is all the proof you need. That's what I mean when I say critical thinking skills are lacking. There's no bullshit-meter in these people. People like Onlooker rush off to google, type in a few keywords, pick a cherry, don't give a rat's ass what ulterior motive that cherry may have (gold bug, selling rations, selling books, etc...) and bring it here as if it's somehow a "proof". Opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one and most of them stink. You've got to do better than just link to Zerohedge, PrisonPlanet, InfoWars, or Our Finite World. A key component of being a cult-member is shutting yourself off to anybody but "blessed" sources. The general attitude towards the MSM is part and parcel of that. Trump exploits this as he himself is built out of conspiratorial thinking. But you just build your own reality by trusting "independent" (aka fringe) sources and disregarding official MSM. But that's no different from being a Jehovah's Witness who only trusts what's written in Watchtower magazine. It is not enlightened thinking. It's willful ignorance to further an ingrained philosophy, in this case a deep-seated hatred of the status quo and the powers that be.

But I know full well no matter how often I point these problems out, those that need to get this message the most are going to be the least likely to hear it. That's the nature of cultish thinking. Your mind gets rewired to the point where you're completely closed off from dissenting opinions, no matter how valid they may be. The matter is closed. Epistemic closure, as it were. And that's why we have dueling monologues rather than dialogue here.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 14:46:29
by evilgenius
This site does argue some of the more pressing corollaries to peak oil. We talk about the role of AI, automation, alternative energy and other things in many threads. It isn't just because of global warming that battery power is the future. Whether battery power makes fossil fuels irrelevant or not, peak oil is still somewhere out there in the future. This site has evolved as it has considered how much the ingenuity of man has an impact upon the issue, equally alongside the juxtaposition of the current situation and many members prior statements. People like me said that fracking wouldn't last before fracking started. I have to admit that it has been a game changer. We'll see what happens going forward, but I think it has extended the sort of problems the world may have faced already until at least 2030.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 14:58:53
by Outcast_Searcher
Newfie wrote:I’m no different, I feel most people are not critical thinkers.

I think Men’s Health summer it up pretty well in a survey they did. 87% of males believe they are above average drivers.

The fact that people are irrational, and far more irrational than most realize, including about themselves, is becoming more obvious over time with objective observation from things like the modern field of behavioral economics. Being wildly overconfident and dishonest, even with themselves (often subconsciously) are clear examples.

The internet, re discussion areas, is making this issue far more glaring, but you can see it in lots of places if you look.

I loved "Predictably Irrational", "The Death of Expertise", and "Misbehaving", which really get into the subject with lots and lots of data and examples.

...

And even KNOWING this, it's really hard not to do it.

For example, we now know that people buying liquor are VERY influenced by the way the bottle looks (marketing studies from a fading brand of whiskey figured this out). Yet, I find myself STILL being heavily influenced by the bottle, unless I REALLY PAY ATTENTION and FORCE myself not to be unduly influenced. It's so stupid (re my behavior, knowing this) that it really pisses me off at myself sometimes, and YET, I STILL have to watch myself on this. (Brand, quality reputation, and experience are one thing, but the bottle itself and how it looks is QUITE another).

I steadfastly think I ignore "marketing" (in the obvious places), AND YET, here I was (am) being heavily influenced by marketing RIGHT IN MY FACE, and not fully realizing it. :roll:

Given the typical education level of the populace and the problem being so ingrained, it might be impossible to fix it (i.e. improve awareness of it and get people to consciously try to resist it). It does make life more interesting, and challenging.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:12:11
by asg70
What it does is make me a raging misanthrope. Never underestimate the lack of intelligence of the average person. And the internet has only amplified the voices of dummies. You know how the squeaky wheel gets the grease? Ideologues and nuts are far more motivated to spread their disinfo than the well-adjusted. This is why I don't like when Armageddon or others shit out a dozen posts in succession. It's the tell-tale behavior of someone who is akin to the End is Nigh cardboard guy pacing back and forth shouting at pedestrians all...day...long. As they say, repeat a lie long enough and people start to believe it. The nuts know this somehow innately. Short continues to flog ETP despite losing his bet and taking his site down. Those with the most stamina tend to eventually drown out saner voices and brainwash the masses. Not that peakoil.com has much of a readership anymore but this phenomenon happens everywhere. It fueled the rise of Trump with Pizzagate, etc... How is modern CT popularity any different from 100 years ago with the Protocols of Elders of Zion paving the way to the holocaust? This kind of thing is very dangerous on a macro level. It's enough to make one question freedom of speech because what needs to happen more than anything else is to filter out bullshit rather than having it sit side by side with decent information. This problem has been brewing for so long. Just having a comments section underneath news articles is extremely dangerous as you're always tempted to slide down and read the dueling spin. Everyone's living in their own personal reality distortion field.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:13:09
by mousepad
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yet, I find myself STILL being heavily influenced by the bottle


What's wrong with that? If you like one bottle design more than the other, why not choose it?
That's why there's more than one option available. Because the world is not one size fits all. Even though the hyper efficient globalization crowds would love it. One world factory producing one type of shoe for the whole world at top efficiency. A paradise of equal.

problem being so ingrained, it might be impossible to fix it.

it's not a problem. So don't need fixing.
Each time somebody DOESN'T think according to established pattern there's the potential for innovation.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." - Decca Recording Company on declining to sign the Beatles, 1962

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876

"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." - Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830

"X-rays will prove to be a hoax." - Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." - -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postPosted: Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:16:42
by asg70
And Outcast_Searcher has been pretty good at digging out quotes from this site which turned out to be false. And look at my current sig. How many people still think we're going to have a vaccine ready to go by mid May?