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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Sat 23 Jan 2016, 11:26:32
by MonteQuest
vtsnowedin wrote:The resultant overcrowded refugee camps that will result will be a breeding ground for disease and war.


Warmer temperatures, due to global climate change, are enhancing the breeding grounds for mosquitoes that are spreading the Zika Virus.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Sat 23 Jan 2016, 11:30:08
by onlooker
In fact if I am not mistaken mosquitoes are threatening different types of disease outbreaks besides the Zika.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 25 Jan 2016, 14:15:02
by JimBof
onlooker wrote:In fact if I am not mistaken mosquitoes are threatening different types of disease outbreaks besides the Zika.


Very true. Last year I had Ross River Fever - Fortunately a mild attack. My Wife has had Ross River Fever and Barmah Forest Virus. They will not kill you but you might wish they had. Mosquitoes are a competent vector. I will try not to get bitten when I am over there in a few months.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 25 Jan 2016, 14:59:12
by onlooker
Not to mention Lime disease from what I have read a very nasty disease.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Tue 27 Dec 2016, 18:48:36
by DesuMaiden
I think it is naive to think that collapse is unlikely to happen because of how oversensitive and overly fragile our socio-economic systems are. In fact, I would be highly surprised if collapse doesn't happen sooner or latter (in fact, it is already happen in certain countries. It is just that certain developed nations like the USA, Canada and Japan haven't felt it yet). Western Europe is already feeling the first signs of collapse as refugees from the Middle East overwhelm their borders. And that's just the tip of the ice berg. Famine, electrical grid shortages and when trucks stop delivering their shipments to retailers is not to far away.

In order for our highly-complex and inter-connected society to function, there must be many interdependent systems working together in almost perfect synchrony. All of these systems depend on a plethora of resources to be maintained. Even if one of these resources is in short supply, the whole system may collapse because of Liebig's Law of the Minimum, which states that "a complex system requires certain inputs to function, and even if one of these inputs were to be missing, the system cannot function anymore". Our society has become so dependent on certain technologies that without them, our society will quickly grind to a halt and collapse. And these technologies cannot function if even one of the natural resources necessary to manufacture or maintain them is no longer present in sufficient quantities.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Wed 28 Dec 2016, 02:32:50
by onlooker
Yes, Desu both in terms of the vitality of the Earth and what it can provide for us, we are degrading those crucial services and resources. What is more we are in the process of permanently damaging the balance and synergy of Earth's biosphere that allows current living beings to exist on Earth.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Tue 03 Jan 2017, 12:47:58
by Revi
pstarr wrote:Desu, the current chaos in the the Middle East (Syria, Libya, Egypt) was sparked by the runup and plateau of $100 oil.

The press wanted to romanticize the rebellion as the 'Arab Spring' Now we'd like to demonize the same as 'terrorism' and 'Isis' (or is it 'Isil'? I forget). It's all the slow grind down. So yes the troubles in the ME will come to Europe. If we are lucky (and the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts stay nasty) then the troubles in Central America and Southern Mexico will not come here to the US


I was just watching a Frontline documentary and they had a guy who started in Gambia and went all the way across the Sahara in the back of a truck and took a boat to Europe. I don't think deserts are the barrier they once were. The Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts are crossed by all sorts of roads nowadays.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 13:34:24
by DesuMaiden
Collapse won't happen? Every unsustainable system eventually collapses. And modern industrial civilization is the most unsustainable Ponzi scheme ever created, so it is inevitable that it will collapse. It is not a matter of IF it collapses but a matter of WHEN it happens. I literally cringe when people think we will ever be colonizing Mars. It just shows how scientifically illiterate most people are that they'll even believe in techno utopian pipedreams like humans colonizing Mars.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 14:40:01
by jedrider
DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen? Every unsustainable system eventually collapses. And modern industrial civilization is the most unsustainable Ponzi scheme ever created, so it is inevitable that it will collapse. It is not a matter of IF it collapses but a matter of WHEN it happens. I literally cringe when people think we will ever be colonizing Mars. It just shows how scientifically illiterate most people are that they'll even believe in techno utopian pipedreams like humans colonizing Mars.


Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 16:44:59
by diemos
jedrider wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen? Every unsustainable system eventually collapses. And modern industrial civilization is the most unsustainable Ponzi scheme ever created, so it is inevitable that it will collapse. It is not a matter of IF it collapses but a matter of WHEN it happens. I literally cringe when people think we will ever be colonizing Mars. It just shows how scientifically illiterate most people are that they'll even believe in techno utopian pipedreams like humans colonizing Mars.


Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.


Collapse is already here, it's just unevenly distributed.

20 years ago there were no shanty towns along my commute route. Now there are.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 16:59:03
by mousepad
diemos wrote:20 years ago there were no shanty towns along my commute route. Now there are.


where is that?

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 17:16:02
by diemos
mousepad wrote:
diemos wrote:20 years ago there were no shanty towns along my commute route. Now there are.


where is that?


https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/5402 ... -43,05.jpg
along the bart line in oakland, ca.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 17:32:05
by mousepad
diemos wrote:
mousepad wrote:
diemos wrote:20 years ago there were no shanty towns along my commute route. Now there are.


where is that?


https://cdn.abcotvs.com/dip/images/5402 ... -43,05.jpg
along the bart line in oakland, ca.


That's no shanty, that's them new tiny homes. Good for the environment. :-)

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 19:14:19
by DesuMaiden
jedrider wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen? Every unsustainable system eventually collapses. And modern industrial civilization is the most unsustainable Ponzi scheme ever created, so it is inevitable that it will collapse. It is not a matter of IF it collapses but a matter of WHEN it happens. I literally cringe when people think we will ever be colonizing Mars. It just shows how scientifically illiterate most people are that they'll even believe in techno utopian pipedreams like humans colonizing Mars.


Also, whether the crash will be slow or fast. I need to read up on the fast/slow thread, but fast seems inevitable, but obviously it will be like a series of water falls when it does happen.

Well, obviously it won't collapse overnight, but there will be signs such as gasoline stations not having a sufficient supply of gasoline, supermarket shelves getting more barren because items from far away places stop being delivered, etc. But our supply chains are so vulnerable that even a mere 10 to 15% shortage of gasoline--or whatever other supply--would cause significant disruption in society. I am just curious how people would react to supply chain breakdowns, resulting in shortages of supplies? Will they finally realize that the party is over? Will they panic? Or will they rationally reduce consumption? That is the question.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 19:35:14
by aadbrd
DesuMaiden wrote:Collapse won't happen?


Why are you necro-ing old threads? This one is from four years ago.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 19:41:45
by Newfie
Aardb,

He is allowed to respond to any thread he wants to.

And you are free to ignore it.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Mon 15 Mar 2021, 19:45:03
by diemos
DesuMaiden wrote:Well, obviously it won't collapse overnight, but there will be signs such as gasoline stations not having a sufficient supply of gasoline, supermarket shelves getting more barren because items from far away places stop being delivered, etc.


That's one possibility. The other is that enough people will be thrown out of the middle class and into poverty that supply will be adequate for demand.

I've always thought that was the path we would follow as it keeps business as usual going for the top as long as possible.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Sun 21 Mar 2021, 10:46:15
by evilgenius
Why start a new thread when one already exists that was created to talk about what you are interested in? I know there are some digressions in almost every thread, but I think the readers would be able to separate those from the new postings. The date difference should be enough to tip people off that they ought not to look back too far in order to understand the context. If they should use the context, the new writer should reference what part of the old postings are relevant to what they are trying to say, of course.

In reference to the thread, I wonder how much shortages will effect people's behavior? There are sort of rolling shortages that go on in my local supermarket. I don't see them really changing people's behavior. They got shocked out of that when they overreacted at the beginning of the pandemic. I think that indicates that shame will still be an effective deterrent to certain behaviors, even if things get bad. Oddly, volatility that offers episodic returns to an "old normal" will practically guarantee it.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Sun 21 Mar 2021, 11:57:16
by aadbrd
It's not just that it's an old thread. He replied to someone who I don't see posting anymore, so what does kind of response is he expecting? He's talking to an empty chair. This forum is full of posts from people who are long gone like this. Whatever...

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 2

Unread postPosted: Sun 21 Mar 2021, 13:49:39
by evilgenius
I've just spent too much time looking for things on this site. Many threads saying the same thing makes it harder. I see your point, though. You have fresh eyes. I used to have those as well.