MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.
Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.
What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.
Bumped into this revived thread, realized it had been started quite some time ago...and wondered....isn't it amazing that no one was figuring real crude and gasoline prices at 1970's levels again, and the Saudi's being forced to fight for market share with the US independents? Or the US independents having found and brought on the largest producing oil fields in the western hemisphere at this point in time? Profitable airlines? Private planes still flying, record car sales, not only is it NOT about paying more for gas and using less, its more like 1986 where its about finding new ways or burn all the stuff, back then we invented SUVs, now our cars are being forced to become more efficient, and it might take like half a decade to cycle through enough efficient machines and replace them with monster trucks and SUVs to soak up supply enough to cause prices to normalize...say...$50/bbl?
And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.
The only people who really pitched out an idea covering this that I can remember from way back when was Simmons and Deffeyes. They bought figured, and said, near the end of their respective books that once we made it through the initial post peak hump, that the dawn of new technologies and enlightened folk who had made it to the other side would make us happier and wiser and whatnot, a sort of "New Morning" idea. But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.
Posted: Mon 21 Dec 2015, 15:29:20