Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
Posted: Tue 30 May 2017, 15:30:34
Haven't been here for years, literally. I used to have a job in a call-centre that allowed me plenty of time in the Internet between calls. Then I got busy getting involved in the local Transition Town, rather than posting stuff on the Internet. I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.
Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.
Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.
2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".
3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.
4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?
Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?
As for the fact that oil prices went down since the big spike, I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed. In fact, I was at a big Financial Times meeting last year, and there was a guy there explaining how part of the reason for low interest rates is to keep oil prices managed, and then going on about how the responsibility for management was going to go from the American Fed to the ECB (it seems to me that one didn't happen, but I'm no financial expert).
So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure. And they've decided the correct response is obfuscation and propaganda, so that the little people don't panic. While managing prices. And, by the way, preparing for WWIII with the last country with significant reserves of oil that doesn't bow to the USA: Russia. Which is why the Russians moved their chess pieces, and put all that effort into getting elected the one guy that might, just might, not go to war with them.
But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.
Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.
Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.
2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".
3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.
4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?
Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?
As for the fact that oil prices went down since the big spike, I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed. In fact, I was at a big Financial Times meeting last year, and there was a guy there explaining how part of the reason for low interest rates is to keep oil prices managed, and then going on about how the responsibility for management was going to go from the American Fed to the ECB (it seems to me that one didn't happen, but I'm no financial expert).
So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure. And they've decided the correct response is obfuscation and propaganda, so that the little people don't panic. While managing prices. And, by the way, preparing for WWIII with the last country with significant reserves of oil that doesn't bow to the USA: Russia. Which is why the Russians moved their chess pieces, and put all that effort into getting elected the one guy that might, just might, not go to war with them.
But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.