Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Peak Oil
1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction of which typically follows a bell-shaped curve, with maximum flow near the middle followed by terminal decline. The "peak" is the point in time of highest flow and supply availability, with shrinking supplies thereafter. "Peak Oil" does not mean no oil, it means less oil.

Discoveries
2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.

Exploration Costs
3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last.

Energy Return On Energy Invested
4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.

Export Land Model
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.

The Consequences of Cheap and Expensive Oil
6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,

7. Increasing oil prices can decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase and/or

8. Increasing oil prices can reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.

Scaling Time
9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.

Unreliable Information
10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.

10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Modern society depends on plentiful, cheap oil.
3. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
4. Easy & cheap oil will be depleted faster than harder and more expensive to produce oil
5. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, once the need becomes generally accepted.
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10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Modern societies and economies depend on plentiful, cheap oil.
3. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
4. Easy & cheap oil will be depleted faster than oil more difficult and expensive to produce.
5. As oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil, reducing exports.
6. The amount of oil used to produce oil steadily increases reducing oil available for useful economic work.
7. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, once the need becomes generally accepted.
8. Oil production data is proprietary and all reported figures are at best mere guesses.
9. In America, when oil costs exceed 4% of real GDP the economy goes into recession.
10.Oil is fungible and can not be stored in meaningful quantities, and so thus is not subject to speculation.

Pops wrote:9. In America, when oil costs exceed 4% of real GDP the economy goes into recession.

radon wrote:

Pops wrote:9. In America, when oil costs exceed 4% of real GDP the economy goes into recession.

Is this relevant?
You can equally say that in some oil-producing countries, when the oil revenues fall below 25% (or whatever % threshold) of GDP, their economy goes into recession.

Pops wrote:

10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Modern societies and economies depend on plentiful, cheap oil.
3. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
4. Easy & cheap oil will be depleted faster than oil more difficult and expensive to produce.
5. As oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil, reducing exports.
6. The amount of oil used to produce oil steadily increases reducing oil available for useful economic work.
7. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, once the need becomes generally accepted.
8. Oil production data is proprietary and all reported figures are at best mere guesses.
9. In America, when oil costs exceed 4% of real GDP the economy goes into recession.
10.Oil is fungible and can not be stored in meaningful quantities, and so thus is not subject to speculation.

I think these should at least be debated I've seen different figures regarding oil/recession, I read one article that seemed to show recessions were more dependent on the rate of in crease than the absolute number.

And of course the speculation thing.

pstarr wrote:

rockdoc123 wrote:how about the simple definition which so many people seem to misunderstand?

it is the point at which global production of oil will reach its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline at an annual rate 6.7%, thus dropping to half in ten short years and essentially zero in forty five.

I believe this is important as it means that economics and technology will have little significant impacts on timing, ultimate value and shape of the peak.

There. I fixed it for you.

pstarr wrote:Oil is fungible and can not be stored in meaningful quantities, and thus is not subject to speculation.

Pstarr said: Oil is fungible and can not be stored in meaningful quantities, and thus is not subject to speculation.

There. I fixed it for you.

When it comes to energy consumption, no single part of the U.S. government comes close to the Department of Defense. Military operations account for about 80 percent of the federal government’s total energy use; last year, the energy budget for the U.S. armed forces reached $13.4 billion.

Queaks wrote:First, by just "not drilling" (or more exactly not pumping) an oil producer can effectively store his whole reserve. If Saudia Arabia were to cease production, essentially storing all oil in their current location, speculators would go crazy!

pstar wrote:But in neither case did either of your affect the prices paid by the refinery for the crude on delivery at the terminal.

thuja wrote:How about...

People who study Peak Oil are not pessimistic malthusians.