A personal overview of the peak oil theory
Posted: Sat 23 Nov 2019, 22:59:37
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As I became aware of the depletion principle , peak oil took my interest
depletion , like gravity suck and cannot be avoided , long term
Marion King Hubbert seminal work struck me as prescient , jean Laherrere writting is very precise
both are professional geologist having worked at the top of the oil industry
they were right of course but for a small detail , things turned out to be different
Hubbert considered conventional fields and conventional crude
Laherrere prediction took the new offshore fields in consideration and gave larger estimates
every time some limit was in sight new technologies made new resources exploitable
Peak oiler clung to the obvious , those resources were available because the price of crude was rising
making ever greater investment necessary and decreasing the energy return trending to uneconomical
things turned out differently , the new resources could and do compete with the old conventional on price
further compounding the problem , natural gas, once commonly flared as a waste , became a major market in itself
it would seems that the exploitation went through several stage ,
accessing the easy oil then those which required a bit more nous then some really tricky tech
and finally (?) squeezing hydrocarbon from stone
at each stage the recoverable resources are larger ,
it's like digging a buried pyramid ,starting from the tip and the deeper one get the more there is
the world is now so awash with crude/gas supply ,
it can take three millions barrel of Iranian production out and still see the prices drop
now demand peak is all the rage ,
it's a good theory ...but theories can be right an reality be something else again
As I became aware of the depletion principle , peak oil took my interest
depletion , like gravity suck and cannot be avoided , long term
Marion King Hubbert seminal work struck me as prescient , jean Laherrere writting is very precise
both are professional geologist having worked at the top of the oil industry
they were right of course but for a small detail , things turned out to be different
Hubbert considered conventional fields and conventional crude
Laherrere prediction took the new offshore fields in consideration and gave larger estimates
every time some limit was in sight new technologies made new resources exploitable
Peak oiler clung to the obvious , those resources were available because the price of crude was rising
making ever greater investment necessary and decreasing the energy return trending to uneconomical
things turned out differently , the new resources could and do compete with the old conventional on price
further compounding the problem , natural gas, once commonly flared as a waste , became a major market in itself
it would seems that the exploitation went through several stage ,
accessing the easy oil then those which required a bit more nous then some really tricky tech
and finally (?) squeezing hydrocarbon from stone
at each stage the recoverable resources are larger ,
it's like digging a buried pyramid ,starting from the tip and the deeper one get the more there is
the world is now so awash with crude/gas supply ,
it can take three millions barrel of Iranian production out and still see the prices drop
now demand peak is all the rage ,
it's a good theory ...but theories can be right an reality be something else again