AdamB wrote: peak demand appears to be right around the corner, according to the likes of WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, etc etc.
Unless we have a prolonged global depression soon, or skyrocketing oil prices, oil demand is nowhere close to peaking on a
global (versus US) basis.
Robert Rapier. August 31, 2017. Oil demand is growing nearly everywhere. Forbes.
I broke down oil demand growth in the past five years (2011-2016) in various regions of the world. I chose the past five years, because those years have marked rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles (EVs). If the near-term peak oil demand hypothesis is true, you might expect to see a slowing of oil demand growth in regions with fast growth in EVs. (For more details on the peak oil demand hypothesis, see Peak Oil And Peak Demand Have Entirely Different Outcomes).
World-wide, oil demand has grown by 6,800,000 barrels per day (69% of that in the Asia Pacific). Consumption increased 16.1% in the Asia Pacific, 16% in Africa, 12.5% in the Middle East, 7.6% in the world, 4.7% in South and Central America, and 4% in the U.S. Oil consumption only dropped in the European Union, by 4.1%.
Norway’s oil consumption grew 1%, despite being the leader in growth and total market share for electric vehicles (EVs).
My conclusion Is that outside of the EU, there are no clear cut examples of declining oil demand in the past five years. To the contrary, oil demand continues to increase in most regions of the world, including those with high growth rates for electric vehicles.
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/robert-ra ... -in-sight/The following graph shows conventional oil continues to provide about three quarters of world oil supply, and that its production has been flat at best since 2005, and may be starting to decline. When it begins to decline in earnest, presumably at a rate of 6 to 8 per cent per annum (IEA, 2008), it is hard to imagine that unconventional oil will make up the difference for very long.
https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/up ... 5_2014.jpgHere is a similar graph out to 2018:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAPyY3kUwAIDRD6.pngGlobal crude plus condensate production has fallen sharply recently, but that might be due to a softening global economy. Time will tell:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... ld-C-C.pngSince 2005, about half the world's production has been from sources that are either plateaued or declining:
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/upl ... groups.jpgBut let us be optimistic and suggest that unconventional sources can, although at substantially greater cost, offset the looming decline in conventional production. That unconventional offset will be gross production. Because unconventional has a low EROEI, the net production is likely still to represent a shortfall.