If it isn't produced here it will just be imported from Canada or elsewhere. Only loss to the economy being the transport and profit margin costs in excess of the local cost.
Well - if that's not bizarre what is, since Canadian production is also falling, and has been for some time. And for elsewhere did you mean Venezuela, the North Shore, the North Sea? US Shale production has been the only reason that the world has not Peaked since 2007, and the decline rate in existing formations means that once Shale begins its decline so also will the remainder of the world. As we said last year:
12/08/18 Peak Oil
Fighting over scraps is what humans are good at.
It now takes 90.3% of its production to replace shale's legacy decline. What happens when that hits 100%? Since we can say that 2005 was 0% (there was only a couple thousand operating shale wells, and almost zero legacy decline), and in 2018 legacy decline is 90.3% the rate of change is 7.525% per year. Which puts Peak
at about March 2019. I would suspect to see a significant decline in the economy no more than a few months later. If you use the national news media as an informational source, you will find out about it maybe by 2023 (month unknown).
Shale added 117,000 barrels to its production in November, that is 3,900 barrels per day. On production of 6.15 mb/d, shale is growing by 0.06%. By next year it will be zero. Its legacy decline will have over taken it, and production will fall. Once the ramifications of Peak become understood there will be panic. The worse possible response to Peak will be fighting over the scraps; which is why that is most likely to be the exact thing that will happen. We will attempt to hold on to our last tiny bit of reserves by expending them on some totally useless, bloody, stupid war.
Although the impact of Peak will be interesting, it will not likely be very healthy![quote]