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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 03:54:44
by Yoshua
Global auto production is falling without any bottom in sight. Oil is good for nothing without the machines that burn the fuels.

During peak conventional oil and the GFC the auto industry collapsed. This time things are much worse with declining EROEI after another decade of decaying quality of oil.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/rec ... al-economy

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 10:52:13
by shortonoil
Apparently your dog might also know that the heavy oil that is piped is done so as a mix of light and heavy oils.


Your responses consistently resemble the three blind men attempting to describe an elephant!
Blending does not take place at the well head. All Plains America does that, and the refineries do a little more once it gets to their plants.

Why not stop deluding yourself and get a life?


Reversal to childhood idioms is an common early symptom of oncoming senility.

Baduila wrote:
„Heat cannot spontaneously flow from cold regions to hot regions without external work being performed on the system“

The last statement i have used to explain why oil production requires so much energy. „Heat cannot spontaneously flow between materials in temperature equilibrium without external work being performed on the system“.


You don't see how self-contradictory you are in these two sentences, do you. Your entire etp blather is built on a local heat death, that is, entropy reaching the maximum in your isolated system in which you live. At the same time you are talking about external work that you have to produce on that isolated system in which you live. Split personality disorder?


Apparently you have zero concept for the necessity of establishing boundary conditions in thermodynamics analysis. Therefore the "entropy rate balance equation for control volumes" is beyond your ability to apply to the petroleum production system. The only "blather" going on here is your lack of comprehension of the subject. The Etp Model is constructed from the nesting of three control volumes by defining their boundaries; the "Reserve", the "PPS", and the "Environment". Mass that flows from the Reserve enters the PPS, and is then transported to the Environment. The Etp Model is an entropy determination for the state of the PPS. Mass transport is what is transporting the entropy. It has nothing to do with the Environment; or where we live.

Since the Etp Model requires the mass flow rate to calculate the entropy production in the system, it uses the EIA's historical estimates of petroleum production. The 4.5 percent error that constantly appears is undoubtedly the result of the error in estimating petroleum production. It is amazing that the EIA has been able to determine world production consistently within 4.5%. Of course, they were using Hubbert's model to fine tune their estimates. Hubbert's model was off by about 4.5% because production does not follow a true logistic curve. It follows a skewed logistic function, but the mathematics to determine that was not available at the time of Hubbert. Quantile Statistics appeared about the time of this death.


Are you saying that the magma is cooling down...as the heat from the interior is rising to the surface and radiates into the cold space...and as we extract hot oil from the interior and burn it...it increase the radiation into space and the interior is cooling even faster?


The earth's temperature has remained constant for millions of years because of the decay of radioactive elements in its core. Any temperature change which might result from pumping oil is too small to even be considered. Petroleum production from the reserve is essentially an isothermal process resulting from the adiabatic wall created by earth's gigantic mass and constant heat production.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 11:26:16
by shortonoil
ExxonMobil stated that Q3 2019 production in the Permian was up 72% versus Q3 2018. Two things they failed to mention. First, most of the increase was during Q4 2018. And second, the major part of the increase was from Natural Gas.


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EXXON is stating boe, and the gas is almost worthless. Some operators In the Permian are paying to have it hauled away. This is resulting from the central banks massive printing operations that has reduced capital returns to almost nothing. Investors have more access to cash than they have investments that can produce a return. The general attitude is now; "so what if we lose it, they can just print us some more". It is a clear indication of the increasingly dysfunctional economy that is forming. No one seems to care as long as the prevailing illusion of a rising stock market can be maintained until the election. After that I expect that they will have a surprise in store for everyone. The debt bomb will go off, and the oil age will be officially over. For the common man on the street the nearest ham sandwich will then be on the far side of Mars.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 11:44:30
by asg70
Yoshua wrote:Oil is good for nothing without the machines that burn the fuels.


What world are you living in? There are how many autos already on the road presently? The world simply doesn't need so many more until the old ones wear out or people are spoiled enough to want to trade up to a new vehicle.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 13:09:45
by rockdoc123
Your responses consistently resemble the three blind men attempting to describe an elephant!
Blending does not take place at the well head. All Plains America does that, and the refineries do a little more once it gets to their plants.


Incorrect. For much of the heavy oil produced (eg: WCS) a certain amount of light oil or condensate (diluent) is added after separation before it is put into gathering lines. That amount is what is necessary to get the viscosity to a point where it is pipelineable. Once it reaches major pipelines that might take it to refineries additional diluent may be added to reach pipeline specs (a requirement of shipment contract). Once it reaches the refinery the correct mixture of light oil to heavy oil is made in order to meet the refinery spec. But once again, you demonstrate your inability to learn. Diluent is what is added for pipeline. The mix of light, medium and heavy oils made at a refinery are not diluent additives (i.e. no transport necessary), simply appropriate mixtures for the relevant refinery. But sure go ahead and crow about your ignorance on the subject.

Any temperature change which might result from pumping oil is too small to even be considered


Well that isn’t what Baduila is saying and he is one of your fans. In fact he is saying the calculation is all about temperature loss. Seems to me you self-proclaimed thermo-dynamists need to get your storyline straight. :roll:

EXXON is stating boe, and the gas is almost worthless. Some operators In the Permian are paying to have it hauled away. This is resulting from the central banks massive printing operations that has reduced capital returns to almost nothing.

OK, that is just stupid. The reason the gas WAS (and I say was because that isn’t the situation anymore) extremely cheap was because supply was increasing at a time where there was limited pipeline egress. Because the most efficient production of light oil from tight reservoirs is from natural gas with high liquid yield there is a lot of gas to deal with. Without egress they have serious problems and as such result to all means (giving it away) in order to preserve their liquids income. Nothing to do with available capital or available opportunities. You haven’t a clue what is going on so the best suggestion is to just shut up.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 06 Nov 2019, 16:30:01
by Yoshua

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 07 Nov 2019, 08:00:36
by marmico
So in September 2019, the US was a net petroleum trade exporter (Graph of the Month) for the first time since 1978. Did the ETP MAP forecast that event since it has an abysmal forecast record of the price of oil?

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 07 Nov 2019, 08:59:33
by shortonoil
Chesapeake is now a penny stock.


The industry is also seeing a high number of abandoned wells. Just the Provence of Alberta, CA has 3,400 abandoned wells that the provincial government must now take over. Capping these wells will cost as much as $3.5 billion. To prevent these wells from releasing methane they will need to be recapped about every 20 years. Profits for the industry are now razor thin.
https://www.thestar.com/business/2019/1 ... wells.html

We are witnessing a general decay across all economic fronts, consistent with petroleum's declining energy delivery capabilities, and its ability to power the economy. Some areas where the decline is becoming very obvious, and critical are:

collapsing city and state economies
falling auto production
declining shipping volumes
declining world trade
world wide social unrest
falling interest rates
declining velocity of money
exponentially growing world debt


The end of the oil age, and the economic wreckage that will accompany it are close at hand.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 07 Nov 2019, 10:26:54
by rockdoc123
Just the Provence of Alberta, CA has 3,400 abandoned wells that the provincial government must now take over. Capping these wells will cost as much as $3.5 billion. To prevent these wells from releasing methane they will need to be recapped about every 20 years. Profits for the industry are now razor thin.


Well first off it is a “Province” not “Provence” which is in itself a “Province” in the south of France.

Secondly, if the wells were actually abandoned there would be no problem. The issue is with wells that have reached the economic limit and need to be abandoned. These wells are referred to as orphaned wells. The reason there are orphaned wells is due to the lack of pipeline egress Alberta has seen for its oil. As a consequence, the discount between Western Canada Select and WTI has been hovering around $10/bbl range. With low oil prices and the lack of investor interest in Canadian oils (a product of the fact the current Federal Government is anti-oil and anti-business) has driven a number of companies to the brink. When they get bought out the abandonment of wells is taken over by the new owner. But with a lack of investor interest, there is much less interest in M&A. As well the government regs regarding requirements for acquisition companies was not sufficient a few years back. What that meant was the amount of capital available to a particular company who was buying another company that had a number of producers was supposed to cover all abandonment costs but the limits were firstly not set high enough and secondly not regulated appropriately. Hence a few companies bought companies and did not have the funds available to withstand a downturn as well as pay for abandonment….hence the orphaned wells.

The actual numbers as they stand are there are currently 90,000 inactive wells in AB and 77,000 that have been previously abandoned. The Orphan well inventory is comprised of 3,127 well that need to be abandoned and 1,553 that need to be reclaimed. It is complete nonsense to suggest all abandoned wells have to be reclaimed every 20 years as there are literally thousands of wells that have been abandoned many decades ago that are still without emissions or leaks of any kind. There is a fund (the OWA) that has an annual budget of $45MM that looks after abandoning orphan wells and that is administered by the Alberta government energy regulator.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 07 Nov 2019, 12:27:15
by shortonoil
Well first off it is a “Province” not “Provence” which is in itself a “Province” in the south of France.


We are soo impressed by the fact that you won the 1934 World Championship Spelling Bee contest. That must make you the world's foremost expert on "Life the Universe and Everything".

Secondly, if the wells were actually abandoned there would be no problem.


Your BS is getting deeper, and stinkier. These were all "supposedly" profitable, operating companies a year ago. There "were" 174,000 operating wells in Alberta, and this company according to your "hypothesis" had 3,400 of them go dry in one day. They apparently drilled them all some Sunday afternoon after church.

A massive number of oil and gas wells, facilities and pipeline segments stand to be added to the already bulging files of the Alberta Orphan Well Association in the wake of the likely failure of Sequoia Resources Corp. All of the Calgary-based company’s operating licences were ordered suspended after the privately held oil and gas company warned the Alberta Energy Regulator late last month it was ceasing operations “imminently” and, as a result of “defaults in municipal tax payments,” would not be able to afford to reclaim all of its properties.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4070608/aban ... r-sequoia/


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Why does everything look so wonderful to the credulous, supporters of the coming nirvana economy? Sheep don't understand what if means when "they are cooking the books".?

To put this into perspective, the Federal Reserve generates more profit in the last quarter than Apple, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Facebook, Google, and Intel COMBINED.


Nonetheless, since the Fed’s balance sheet is part of the corporate profit calculation, we must include them in our analysis. While the media is focused on record operating profits, reported corporate profits are roughly at the same level as their were in 2011. Yet, the market has been making consistent new highs during that same period.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corpo ... -you-think

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 07 Nov 2019, 17:47:54
by rockdoc123
Your BS is getting deeper, and stinkier. These were all "supposedly" profitable, operating companies a year ago. There "were" 174,000 operating wells in Alberta, and this company according to your "hypothesis" had 3,400 of them go dry in one day. They apparently drilled them all some Sunday afternoon after church.


Not sure where you get the idea that this is suddenly 3400 wells that have to be abandoned because they suddenly went dry, it isn’t and suggesting that just shows complete ignorance of the industry. This is the total amount of wells that need abandoning that have been drilled at any time. Traditionally a company will drill production wells and produce to the point of economic life at which point they shut-in the well and it is registered as “standing non-producing” or “standing temporarily abandoned” which means they can come back if oil prices rise enough and start producing again at which time the status turns back to “producing” or they can keep it in the standing category for an indefinite amount of time. There are lots of wells that have been temporarily abandoned that have been sitting in that status for a decade or more. But when that company sells to another the new company is obligated to start to abandon all those wells that have no hope of coming back on stream. And if that company goes out of business then there are all those wells that were either under “standing non-producing” or “standing temporarily abandoned” that must now be abandoned permanently. That is where the orphan wells have their origins. Many of those wells were shut-in many years ago and legally not abandoned but now the province must deal with them, which they do gradually through the orphan well program. A total of ~ 450,000 wells have been drilled in Alberta of which 3400 or so are waiting on permanent abandonment. That makes up less than 1% of all drilled wells, not sure that has the level of significance you would like everyone to believe.
Might behoove you to educate yourself on the subject before blabbering on like you are an expert.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:08:04
by Outcast_Searcher
rockdoc123 wrote: Might behoove you to educate yourself on the subject before blabbering on like you are an expert.

You're talking to shorty. That's his only mode of operation, no matter how insane he sounds, and in fact is overall, if he believes that which he blabbers.

Thanks by the way for putting that number of abandoned wells in perspective. It's not at all surprising that the context of that number would be rather different than how shorty would try to spin it, given his long track record of FUD spewing.

That number certainly sounds tiny indeed, in context.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:19:10
by rockdoc123
That number certainly sounds tiny indeed, in context.


That is true but don't let me white wash it too much. 3400 wells at say $250,000 per well on average to permanently abandon is still $850 million which is more than 10 times the annual budget of the Orphan Well Program. Given the low oil prices and the fact Alberta oil has been landlocked by an anti-oil government means provincial revenues from resources is at a long-time low. The previous provincial government was a case in point of how socialism is a clear road to disaster as they ran up the deficit horrendously. As a consequence the new provincial government is faced with spending cuts and the OWP is not going to see any new money. So those wells are going to take some time to abandon permanently.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 13:40:25
by Outcast_Searcher
rockdoc123 wrote:
That number certainly sounds tiny indeed, in context.


That is true but don't let me white wash it too much. 3400 wells at say $250,000 per well on average to permanently abandon is still $850 million which is more than 10 times the annual budget of the Orphan Well Program. Given the low oil prices and the fact Alberta oil has been landlocked by an anti-oil government means provincial revenues from resources is at a long-time low. The previous provincial government was a case in point of how socialism is a clear road to disaster as they ran up the deficit horrendously. As a consequence the new provincial government is faced with spending cuts and the OWP is not going to see any new money. So those wells are going to take some time to abandon permanently.

That's an excellent point. If government wants to be anti-oil, OK, but then they need to raise the taxes to deal with the consequences or risk a huge mess.

OTOH, it's not like big government doesn't have a history of leaving various huge messes (and of course, fans of big government blaming those messes on everyone else).

In a rational society, such problems would be part of the taxes on oil, just like ALL the social (and military) costs would be. Of course, motor fuels might cost $10 or $20 a gallon, and we can't have THAT. I mean, asking people to live within their means would be just way too MEAN! :roll:

But yeah, nontrivial fallout. Thanks for pointing that out as well.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:07:05
by rockdoc123
That's an excellent point. If government wants to be anti-oil, OK, but then they need to raise the taxes to deal with the consequences or risk a huge mess.


the Canada story is a bit of a mess. The provinces control their own natural resources (production, royalties, leases, regs etc) but the federal government controls all pipelines. Basically new pipelines (badly needed) have been effectively shutdown by two new bills passed through parliament and the one pipeline that still might go ahead is now owned by the Feds and most of the industry believes they bought it so they could slow walk any approvals and hence no pipeline egress. So Alberta is caught in a federally created recession. None of it makes sense given Canada has very low total carbon footprint compared to say the US or China such that even if all the CO2 was stopped from emitting in Canada it would have virtually no effect, especially so given the new coal plants being built in China. Its especially irritating given the huge advances the oil sands and other producers have made in terms of lowering overall emissions. Some have set as a goal zero emissions from operations within the next ten years which is almost certainly doable. And the Feds do raise taxes but like their socialist friends south of the border they want to go after the wealthy (so they can attract the middle class and lower votes) and that well is starting to get pretty much dry at this point. If those taxes were spent on good stuff (building a better network of renewables etc) that would at least be palatable but instead they spend it on increasing the size of government, spending on really stupid stuff overseas (paying for abortions in Africa) and doing crap like giving $10 MM to a convicted terrorist (he admitted to throwing a grenade that killed several US soldiers) because they feel sorry for him being treated badly in Gitmo. It's a real crap show up here I'm afraid.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 14:21:48
by Outcast_Searcher
rockdoc123 wrote:It's a real crap show up here I'm afraid.

Sorry to hear that.

Of course, living in the US, or observing Great Britian struggle with Brexit, or the globe (not) deal with AGW and a host of other big problems, it's not like you don't have lots and lots of company.

Humans in large groups. What can you do? :)

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Nov 2019, 08:08:39
by Yoshua
The coal price has dropped to USD 43

I don't think anyone in the world can produce coal economically at USD 43

It's not just oil that is dying.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/com ... coal-price

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Nov 2019, 13:03:03
by shortonoil
The coal price has dropped to USD 43

I don't think anyone in the world can produce coal economically at USD 43

It's not just oil that is dying.


I was in the coal business for years, and still am with lease holding in coal, and gas. Even the big Western strip operations can't make money at $43, and gas is now nothing but a revolving money door. They could ten years ago, but growing overburden has changed all of that. The EROI on fossil fuels has now sunk about as low as it can get. Economies are sinking along with it.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 11 Nov 2019, 17:12:16
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:
The coal price has dropped to USD 43

I don't think anyone in the world can produce coal economically at USD 43

It's not just oil that is dying.


I was in the coal business for years, and still am with lease holding in coal, and gas. Even the big Western strip operations can't make money at $43, and gas is now nothing but a revolving money door. They could ten years ago, but growing overburden has changed all of that. The EROI on fossil fuels has now sunk about as low as it can get. Economies are sinking along with it.

Pretending economics doesn't work doesn't make it so. :roll:

The price of natural gas varies a LOT. It's reacting to MARKET CONDITIONS over time, same as it ever was.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2478/natura ... ical-chart

Coal is dirty and nasty re pollution. Plus it produces lots of CO2 when burned.

In the real world, the cost of coal is going to make it unaffordable re utility scale green energy over the next decade or two. It's already getting to that point in many cases.

So bemoaning coal ruining the economy as it's becoming redundant outmoded makes just as much sense as your FUD on ETP, doomer economics, etc. :idea:

For example:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinno ... f4409722d9

And this if from Forbes, which tends to align with right wing thinking.

You're on the internet. You can easily look things up. :!:

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Tue 12 Nov 2019, 03:42:51
by Yoshua
The CO2 molecules are building blocks of life and manna from heaven for plant life on this planet.

This planet has been cooling down for the last 500 million years as the CO2 level collapsed from 4000 ppm to 280 ppm.

The poles froze and ice ages started as this planet was turning into a snowball. These are signs of a dying planet...which probably is a natural event in the universe.