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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 14:07:45
by Yoshua
"U.S. Senate Panel Backs NordStream2 Pipeline Sanctions Bill"

A pipeline from Russia to Europe...what the fuck has it got to do with the U.S?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 15:17:39
by Outcast_Searcher
Yoshua wrote:"U.S. Senate Panel Backs NordStream2 Pipeline Sanctions Bill"

A pipeline from Russia to Europe...what the fuck has it got to do with the U.S?

Do you really want to pretend that global NG supplies and distribution networks have NOTHING to do with the US? Surely even you aren't that clueless about economics and energy supplies.

Or is it that you're just upset at every piece of ordinary news that despite all the fast crash bad doomer calls, life and the global economy continues to proceed pretty much as normal?

BTW, is it really too difficult for you to cite direct quotes (which I presume the quotation marks imply)?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 15:48:45
by Yoshua
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yoshua wrote:"U.S. Senate Panel Backs NordStream2 Pipeline Sanctions Bill"

A pipeline from Russia to Europe...what the fuck has it got to do with the U.S?

Do you really want to pretend that global NG supplies and distribution networks have NOTHING to do with the US? Surely even you aren't that clueless about economics and energy supplies.

Or is it that you're just upset at every piece of ordinary news that despite all the fast crash bad doomer calls, life and the global economy continues to proceed pretty much as normal?

BTW, is it really too difficult for you to cite direct quotes (which I presume the quotation marks imply)?


What was the question again?

Of course I know why the U.S is imposing sanctions on E.U over Nord Stream II...we are about to enter a war...currency...trade...well...we don't have nukes...

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 01 Aug 2019, 08:16:40
by shortonoil
What was the question again?


It was kind of complicated? It was an oxymoron wandering around in a labyrinth. Probability says that if he keeps trying he'll come up with one that makes sense; eventually. May you live so long.

But the Nord Stream II situation is definitely an indication of one thing. The sharpest tacks in the box are not located around DC. Not only do they have no idea how to solve our energy problem; they can't even find it! When the government finally does try to come to the rescue, it is going to strongly resemble Custer's Last Stand. By the time they get around to working on the problem, a bi-partisan committee will be sitting around by candle light arguing over if their Plan B is racists. But for those who are curious, the document has already been written. It is called "Gulliver’s Travels".

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:09:37
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:
What was the question again?


It was kind of complicated? It was an oxymoron wandering around in a labyrinth. Probability says that if he keeps trying he'll come up with one that makes sense; eventually. May you live so long.

Maybe some day you'll say something sensible re oil or economics. But based on your track record, I'm not holding my breath.

With all your claimed knowledge re complex things, it's too bad you're too simple to grasp basic concepts.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 03 Aug 2019, 15:12:53
by Outcast_Searcher
Yoshua wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Yoshua wrote:"U.S. Senate Panel Backs NordStream2 Pipeline Sanctions Bill"

A pipeline from Russia to Europe...what the fuck has it got to do with the U.S?

Do you really want to pretend that global NG supplies and distribution networks have NOTHING to do with the US? Surely even you aren't that clueless about economics and energy supplies.


What was the question again?

So you're unable to grasp what question you asked, or how I answered it?

OK, then. :roll:

I highlighted your question in red. Maybe that will make the conversation within your grasp.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 05:48:06
by Yoshua
The WTI bounced of the 200 weekly moving average.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA8T5UDUYAI ... name=large

China has been the crude buyer of last resort. What happens if China slows down, the yuan falls and China starts to cut back on crude imports...and perhaps is forced to sell off its crude inventories to get dollars?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 06:27:19
by Cog
Then Opec cuts production until prices stabilize where they want them to be. Classic supply and demand at work without the usual ETP mental gymnastics.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 07:47:50
by shortonoil
China has been the crude buyer of last resort. What happens if China slows down, the yuan falls and China starts to cut back on crude imports...and perhaps is forced to sell off its crude inventories to get dollars?


The off shore Yuan just fell below 7 to the dollar. China will be buying less oil, regardless of the currency they use. Oil is still "priced" in dollars. The oil age is ending, and the world is falling into turmoil. The situation can only continue to deteriorate.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 09:10:23
by Yoshua
This Eurodollar rate futures chart is indicating that the rate is heading towards 100 (zero rates) and then to 102 (-2 rate).

It's about the craziest freaking thing I have seen!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBNg1ofXkAA ... name=large

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 10:03:05
by shortonoil
Fracking cracking: Oil price correction triggers US shale meltdown

According to the Wall Street Journal and Wood Mackenzie, a basket of 7 shale drillers posted a combined $1.58 billion in negative cash flow in the first quarter, four times worse than the same period a year earlier.

https://www.rt.com/business/465816-oil- ... le-crisis/

The world's petroleum supply is now 1 unit away from the "dead state" with an ERoEI of 8.0:1. Shale will not be the last producer to see their stock crumble. The next few years will be nothing but a blood bath for the industry. Even if the price of oil does not move down, the cost of production will be moving up. The remainder of the economy will be going down closely behind it.

Image

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 10:24:30
by Yoshua
shortonoil wrote: Fracking cracking: Oil price correction triggers US shale meltdown

According to the Wall Street Journal and Wood Mackenzie, a basket of 7 shale drillers posted a combined $1.58 billion in negative cash flow in the first quarter, four times worse than the same period a year earlier.

https://www.rt.com/business/465816-oil- ... le-crisis/

The world's petroleum supply is now 1 unit away from the "dead state" with an ERoEI of 8.0:1. Shale will not be the last producer to see their stock crumble. The next few years will be nothing but a blood bath for the industry. Even if the price of oil does not move down, the cost of production will be moving up. The remainder of the economy will be going down closely behind it.

Image


Negative rates is the only conclusion to keep the Ponzi going.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 11:54:45
by shortonoil
Negative rates is the only conclusion to keep the Ponzi going.


Negative rates mean that a bank is going to pay you to borrow money? I would suspect that there is going to be a problem there. The average banker would go into convulsions at the thought of it. It is going to take a super tanker full of Prozac to pull this one off.

Does Marmy have a Freddy Chart to cover this?

I think that they are referring to just sovereign debt going negative. The investor will be paying the government to loan them money, and supposedly keep it safe. Safe is a term like oil, it keeps getting broader and broader. It is more likely that the whole globalization bit is going to fall apart, and we will be back to local governments, local economies, and a localized currency. The horror! The Chinese will be back to their rice paddies, and Americans will have to go back to work. The elite everywhere will have to get their upturned noses bobbed!

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 12:15:19
by Yoshua
Well... it's only logic? The banks lose 2 percent annually...or the system collapses and they lose everything. The CB will cover their losses anyway.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 13:03:26
by marmico
The latest callout for the Net Margin Interest (proxy for the spread between borrowing and lending) for all US banks is 3.36%.

Image

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Mon 05 Aug 2019, 13:56:51
by shortonoil
Well... it's only logic? The banks lose 2 percent annually...or the system collapses and they lose everything. The CB will cover their losses anyway.


The banking sector is already getting clobbered. European bank stocks are getting hammered. China probably isn't doing any better. The CB can take it until zero. At the present rate of progression that will take about 2 years, if the credit markets don't fold first. The CB will cover for at least their favorite banks. Without banks there are no CB; they are joined at the hip. But how much the banks are losing depends on the accounting system used. Some of them state SPV, and some don't. Probably the only one that really knows is their auditor. In Malaysian, the other day, some bank had their auditor shot. The problem went away? One can only wonder how much of the world's banking industry is on the verge of shooting its auditor?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Tue 06 Aug 2019, 02:08:55
by Yoshua
Oil service companies are breaking down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBPaHFAWsAA ... name=small

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 07 Aug 2019, 03:18:17
by Yoshua
The WTI must bounce...currently at USD 53.70

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBT7QMWXYAM ... name=large

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 07 Aug 2019, 11:03:08
by Yoshua
WTI USD 50.77

So...the trend line broke

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 07 Aug 2019, 11:30:26
by shortonoil
So...the trend line broke


They were probably following the EIA; the perfect example of a broken model.

EIA also downgrades global crude oil demand

the seventh consecutive month that EIA has reduced its forecast for the growth of global crude oil demand in 2019.

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/1009 ... ast-march/