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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 01:04:40
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:
And of course you ignore any positive things like assets, earnings, GDP, etc. unless you think it suits your agenda.


GDP, the same world GDP that now has a DEBT/GDP ratio of 380%.
Do you do understand that debt is the % of assets which are secured by those assets. When all of the assets are security for debt, you are by definition bankrupt!

Most likely a brain tumor? It would take a truck load of Prozac to do that to a human brain.

If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff, maybe someone with a clue about economics would believe you.

Given your history, very doubtful, no matter how many tiny child level posts about brain tumors you endlessly blather.

Keep going. If zero credibility is your goal, you're making real progress.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 05:45:05
by Yoshua
Total has decided to sell off upstream assets that have a high breakeven price. Total needs today an oil price of USD 50 to breakeven.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tota ... SKCN1UK0KO

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 13:13:54
by rockdoc123
Total has decided to sell off upstream assets that have a high breakeven price. Total needs today an oil price of USD 50 to breakeven.


that isn't what the article said at all but nice try at trying to manipulate the lazy reader.

from the article:

Its organic pre-dividend breakeven is below $25 a barrel, while the organic post-dividend breakeven - which would allow it to pay dividends and carry out investments - is below $50 a barrel.


This leaves Total optionality…they can lower dividends or lower further investments which further lowers their overall post-dividend break even. Also it is important to mention that Totals portfolio is mainly offshore deepwater and onshore/offshore natural gas. Gas prices globally on a BTU equivalent basis are lower than oil prices (if you used a global average of $6/MCF that equates to $36 per BOE) so that skews their portfolio breakeven substantially. As well the deepwater and ultra deepwater where Total has focussed E&P over the past decade has a higher breakeven than unconventionals (which is why Total is trying to grow their unconventional business).

You also failed to mention that when Pouyanne took over from De Margerie he focused on acquisitions. Those acquisitions often spook the market as to the overall long term impact on the bottom line. As a consequence Total needed to high grade their portfolio to alleviate those worries.

from the article:

“The announcement of the asset sales may help to offset some uncertainty around the recent growth and M&A strategy, demonstrating some ongoing discipline around the balance sheet and upstream portfolio,” said Henry Tarr, an analyst at Barenberg, which rates Total a “buy”.

So in fact what Total is doing is a normal course of business, something oil companies have been doing in good times and bad times for decades...refocus the portfolio to improve returns.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 16:03:01
by Yoshua
Thanks for clarifying things.

Going out into space is easy, but oil production is something entirely different. So forgive me for not going into all details.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 17:35:39
by shortonoil
If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff


Now incredibly perceptive of you. Can you state that with a creditable margin of error. It's a number between "0" and "1". It is something that scientists, and engineers use quit frequently. That way we can keep this on an "objective" note.

Outcast participating in the scientific revolution!

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Thu 25 Jul 2019, 19:25:18
by rockdoc123
When all of the assets are security for debt, you are by definition bankrupt! 


not the definition of bankrupt which is:

a debtor (such as an individual or an organization) whose property is subject to voluntary or involuntary administration under the bankruptcy laws for the benefit of the debtor's creditors


and completely wrong in the real world. There are many cases where debt financing is done in which the entirety of the asset backs up the debt. There are scores of oil and gas production schemes that have been financed where the entirety of the asset is held as collateral. The company makes money from the asset and is paying off its debt financing requirements. They are as far from bankrupt as can be.
If the company suddenly is no longer a going concern the bank or financial institution holding the debt can seize the asset.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 27 Jul 2019, 17:51:18
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:
If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff

When all you can do is post total nonsense or cartoon pictures, why bother posting?

Nothing meaningful to do with your life?

Oh, I forgot the mindless name-calling you're great at doing, worthy of a seven year old, so there's that. :roll:

But seriously, other than failed economic rambling, how about something productive once in a while?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sat 27 Jul 2019, 17:55:05
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:
If only you EVER posted reasonably credible stuff


Now incredibly perceptive of you. Can you state that with a creditable margin of error. It's a number between "0" and "1".

Given the veracity of what you post over time, how about .01? That's likely high, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

(Since you seem to be quite math impaired, that's 1%. :roll:

Feel free to prove otherwise, but given your problems posting the truth and your track record, I don't expect success.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 07:19:29
by Yoshua
U.S gasoline and diesel prices are about to crash?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAbzYNMXoAA ... ame=medium

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 08:02:21
by shortonoil
U.S gasoline and diesel prices are about to crash?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAbzYNMXoAA ... ame=medium


That follows the recent huge inventory increases that have been reported by the EIA for finished product. The refineries are producing it, but the economy is not buying it. At the same time US crude production is tanking. That is going to put a dent in the economy. But according to the FED there is only a 45% chance of a recession over the next year. The FED believes that the economy is all about consumption, and production is merely some minor detail. No wonder the FED hasn't been able to call a recession until after it has started in the last hundred years.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 09:13:05
by marmico
That follows the recent huge inventory increases that have been reported by the EIA for finished product.


Once again Bozo Bedford demonstrates the 50 year decline in his neuron synapses. Gasoline stocks are in the upper end of the 5 year range. Distillate stocks are in the middle of the 5 year range.

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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 09:57:43
by Yoshua
Petrochemicals aren't doing so well either:

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... cal-prices

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 16:03:23
by shortonoil
Once again Bozo Bedford demonstrates the 50 year decline


Go back to your Freddy charts knuckle head, you don't have to understand them; just cut and paste them.

Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 17:01:35
by Outcast_Searcher
shortonoil wrote:Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W

And when this cry of imminent doom proves completely false, as all your other calls, will you admit it? Ever?

Of course not.

Your picture belongs with the definition of "worthless", re your financial calls over time.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Sun 28 Jul 2019, 17:04:48
by Outcast_Searcher
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:Total stocks haven't been this high since 08/16, and they are historically high, and getting higher. 08/16 looks like the point where they will start to cut back production. After that the wheels fall off.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... ESTUS1&f=W

And when this cry of imminent doom proves completely false, as all your other calls, will you admit it? Ever?

Of course not.

Your picture belongs with the definition of "worthless", re your financial calls over time.

Especially the endless doomer braying like "the wheels fall off".

In the real world, the wheels haven't even slowed down despite all the conatant "armageddon" hysteria around here -- for over a decade now. And aside from a possible normal recession, they show NO signs of doing so, to the financially literate.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 05:23:25
by Yoshua
Asia LNG prices have hit rock bottom as the economy is slowing down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyz4jyX4AE ... name=small

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 08:52:54
by Cog
If they have hit rock bottom then they have no more room to move downward now do they?

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 10:13:46
by asg70
Cog wrote:If they have hit rock bottom then they have no more room to move downward now do they?


The solution to low prices is...more low prices.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 12:19:11
by Outcast_Searcher
Yoshua wrote:Asia LNG prices have hit rock bottom as the economy is slowing down.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyz4jyX4AE ... name=small

Or they're reacting to supply and demand, as always. :roll:

In the real world, despite all the claims about how the masses can't afford fossil fuels, how isn't "rock-bottom" NG prices good for consumers and businesses who use NG? I can't find the economic doom in this -- being blinded by the shine from the economic good news. :)

Oh, and don't worry. If the NG prices are "too low" for production to be sustained, there is this thing called "the market", which will handle that just fine over time -- as ALWAYS. :idea:

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postPosted: Wed 31 Jul 2019, 13:42:15
by asg70
Outcast_Searcher wrote:how isn't "rock-bottom" NG prices good for consumers and businesses who use NG?


Because with doomers it's heads I win tails you lose. At least we don't have to withstand PStarr's "demand dearth" narrative anymore, but that message is still implicit in doomers anytime they want to spin things in a negative direction when the data doesn't support it.