Outcast_Searcher wrote:ROCKMAN wrote:Outcast - "That seventy years of technological advancement has allowed us to improve recovery rates enough to create a second uptick in US production does not negate the validity of Kings work."
Just for clarity, I agreed with this statement, but I didn't make it. That was vtsnowedin
Again, I must disagree. Hubbert's work has no validity today---its proven to be wrong.
People seem to think that Hubbert's contribution was the idea of peak oil. That isn't true.
Its common knowledge that finite resources run out. Athen's silver mines were depleted 2000 years before Hubbert, numerous mines were depleted since then, and when the oil age started in Pennsylvania the shallow oil fields in Pennsylvania quickly peaked and were depleted in the 19th century. When the oil in Pennsylvania started to run out people claimed that was the peak in global oil production---and that was back in the mid-19th century!! Since then many people have predicted or claimed oil was peaking at various times due to events in Texas or other areas. But they all were wrong----just as wrong as Hubbert has turned out to be with his predictions of when oil production would peak. Oil is a finite resource and if we exploit it long enough and use it up then it will run out. Thats obvious. But determining exactly when oil production will peak remains a major question.
The reason Hubbert's claims gained more credibility then those of other people in the 19th and 20th century who claimed oil was peaking, is that Hubbert claimed that he had derived an EQUATION that allowed him to predict when oil reserves would peak and then decline. M. King Hubbert is famous for the 1970 US oil peak because he PREDICTED it in advance using his simple equation. And then he went on to predict global oil production would peak in ca. 2000 using his simple equation. I agree Hubbert's work was important---Hubbert deserves credit for being the first person to attempt to use a scientific appoach to predicting the timing of peak oil.
But now we know his equation is wrong---it actually doesn't predict future oil production. Rather then going down since 1970 as Hubbert's equation predicted, US oil production has recently exploded upwards, exceeding the 1970s peak. Similarly, Hubbert's prediction of global peak oil in ca. 2000 has been proven wrong.
Face facts--- Hubbert's claim that he could predict when oil resources on a local, national and global level would peak and decline has been proven wrong.
People really need to be honest enough to accept the facts, IMHO.
M. King Hubbert said he could predict the timing of peak oil using a simple equation. He has been proven wrong.
Cheers!