The IEA is a political entity and it's prognostications can safely be ignored. Just as one would ignore a political statistic on the unemployment rate, or the inflation rate.
The quoted number of barrels of oil produced today (or oil equivalent as is used now) is irrelevant because so much of it is poured back into the ground to produce more. It's an accounting trick basically because ALL that extra oil is not available to power our civilization, only to power more oil extraction. It's the classic EROEI number for an oil field morphed into EROEI
² like the CDO
² financial instruments that looked so good in 2007 but all blew up in the GFC.
Only about 60% of a given barrel is useful for powering the world, the rest is too light or too heavy. It's good for making roads etc but that 40% is therefore an energy sink, since energy is needed to refine and transport the product. Out of the 60% you have a lot of Petrol,
And while gasoline is useful in maintaining our frivolous car-centric lifestyles, it contributes little to nothing to uphold a stable flow of raw materials and energy into the economy. Viewed through this narrow lens, the really useful, economically vital energy content of oil is actually a rather small portion (20–30%)
see link below.
So out of this limited percentage a large chunk is used up just extracting things like fracked oil. This as you can see skews the EROEI even more since if the return on a shale play is 3:1, yet you only get 1/3 out of a given barrel as diesel to perform all the work, It's break even, or an energy sink. That is why the tight oil plays never made a red cent, why the investors lost their capital. Most of the money was consumed buying the essential energy to extract roughly an equivalent amount of energy. Obviously included is the energy needed to build trucks, extract and transport frack sand etc, etc.
These "New" peak oil dates are a shell game played by those invested in keeping the status quo going but as is obvious, since the $150 oil peak/GFC the global economy has been floundering and living standards collapsing for many. In that sense the original peak-oil prognostications of the collapse of industrial society is well under way, from the collapse of roads and bridges in the US, to nations like Sri Lanka falling into obscurity, to the blackouts that are more and more prevalent across the globe. We as a global society no longer have the energy to maintain, let alone rebuild, these systems that the abundant oil of the 20th century afforded us, and shell games, like wasting heavy oil diesel imported from the middle east to extract light oil in America with mostly gasoline fractions isn't helping.
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/co ... 3f16e8542d