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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 21:59:00
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Here are two interesting posts that support the 2025 Collapse date, penned by oil professionals.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-mini ... 1476870790

UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/ ... s-5531344/

Let's debate them instead of quibbling.



Yes. I think the collapse will be a psychological event.


Indeed. People like you appear to have hallucinated it already.


cliffhanger1983 wrote:When the oil shortages come and the public realizes that there are no quick/easy fixes.


That happened in the 1970's with the real oil shortages. And some of us are now driving those easy fixes. Here is the one the wife uses:

Image

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:07:27
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
Ibon wrote:That ever shifting 5-10 year window toward collapse. Like end time christians never growing tired of prophecies just around the 5 year window.

Yawn.



You can stick your head in the sand all you want. But just remember you leave your ass exposed for the whole world to kick! HAR HAR!


How about a question then....do any ONE of those links contain a single idea that wasn't used before during the peak oil meme of a decade or so ago? Or is recycling bad ideas all you know how to do because anything else would involve...you know...thinking about them?



I posted the links so others could read them and learn and come to their own conclusions....


So your answer is no, you have no ability to discuss what you read in any of those links?

cliffhanger1983 wrote:The peer reviewed studies are clear.


Of course they are "clear", they are written in English after all. But you don't appear to understand that some are old and have already been discredited, the ideas in some were used for peak oil circa 2005 and disproven by what happened AFTER 2005, some are just reporters writing down whatever they were told by some idiot who doesn't know any more about geology, engineering technology or economics than pstarr or short do, and might not even be "studies" based on how they just regurgitate what some other "researcher" said who also knew no more about geology, engineering or economics when they wrote them. Many times, bloggers write this nonsense...weren't you the one who once labeled Art Berman a scientist? Seriously, I remember chuckling over that one for an entire morning.

cliffhanger1983 wrote:Collapse of global civilization is coming soon. And there isn't shit you can do about it.


That's what everyone said with the last peak oil. And I didn't need to do anything about that one either.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:16:21
by Cliffhanger1983
Adam this time the wolf is here! Remember me when the collapse comes and you end up in a cannibals pot. This is the last time I ever comment back to anything you say. You are not worth my time and you want to argue because you have no evidence...

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:18:37
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:Anyone care to question that simple logics? Didn't think so.


I will. And the answer is simple...they didn't count all the oil "discovered", a trick done by peak oilers of peak oil past as well. Quite popular among those who want to pretend they have some real data to claim peak with. Even you should know better to not fall for this stunt...oh..wait...that zealotry thing keeps getting in the way! Sorry...didn't mean to assume you actually learned anything since the last peak oil you fell for.



Actually they do count all the discoveries you dumbshit.


They couldn't have. The answers are obviously incorrect for 2016, as they are for 2009 as well. You would know this if you were smart enough to even figure out that Wood Mac aren't scientists discovering anything, they are an information service quantifying information. The scientists running around "discovering" stuff is exactly the information not being counted.

Scientists "discovering" stuff and Cliff won't put it on his list of links

cliffhanger1983 wrote:
Post removed for threatening illegal acts against another member. Second known offense.

3.1.9 Messages exhorting others to commit illegal acts: Murder, extortion, and any other felony are expressly forbidden. Threads and posts advocating suicide will be edited or deleted without notice. DOS attacks, hacking, flooding, and all other related computer crimes are also unacceptable, and will be reported to that poster's Internet provider. Also included in this is harassment -- for example, encouraging people to call someone on the phone, flood a website/mailbox, etc because they were mentioned in a linked article.


I already have. How do you think I found out your claim was a CROCK in less than 30 seconds? Would you like me to show you how to google so you don't look so foolish...or would you prefer to just stick with what doesn't appear to be working?

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:22:57
by AdamB
onlooker wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse
Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse


Interesting...the same thing the OLD research showed....except for collapse way back when...does the new research fix the logic errors that caused the old research to claim collapse when all the world got was more BAU?

obviously did not read the article. It said we are right on track and timely for the period when they expected some sort of Collapse.


When the MODEL, under one of its scenarios, claimed we should expect collapse. You know...just as accurate as bell shaped curves, Hansen's mid-80's temperature prediction model, Malthus' population calculations, peak oil being declared for the US back in 1919 by government agencies, stuff like that?

LTG has always been a fascinating model, did you know it predicts resource decreasing...except when you go back and look at important ones (in my case I checked oil, natural gas, aluminum)...they didn't! Were the resource volumes checked in that update against the original, or did I just miss that part when I went through it? Because you see, if the model can't get the basics right as to the quantity of resources, does it really matter what else the model wants to make up along the way?

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 22:29:47
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Adam this time the wolf is here! Remember me when the collapse comes and you end up in a cannibals pot.


Do you remember the website, TheWolfIsAtTheDoor, hosted by that UK dude,or are you a johnny come lately to peak oil..which would explain why you appear to know so little about the topic, its history, and the number of times your claims have been used before to no avail.

We even had cannibal claiming people at this website once, a long time ago! Perhaps you were one of them, but are afraid of using your old handle for fear of all the giggling that would ensue?

Perhaps you need a support group, or an intervention? Here is the story of one who fought his way clear of the inability to think and whatnot...perhaps you could start a group?

Confessions of an Ex Doomer
cliffhanger1983 wrote:This is the last time I ever comment back to anything you say. You are not worth my time and you want to argue because you have no evidence...


I have YOUR evidence...and the ability to refute probably anything you reference from any one of those articles. Because I can use google. And think. That's about all it takes for your stuff.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sat 21 Oct 2017, 23:40:51
by Cliffhanger1983
AdamB wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Adam this time the wolf is here! Remember me when the collapse comes and you end up in a cannibals pot.


Do you remember the website, TheWolfIsAtTheDoor, hosted by that UK dude,or are you a johnny come lately to peak oil..which would explain why you appear to know so little about the topic, its history, and the number of times your claims have been used before to no avail.

We even had cannibal claiming people at this website once, a long time ago! Perhaps you were one of them, but are afraid of using your old handle for fear of all the giggling that would ensue?

Perhaps you need a support group, or an intervention? Here is the story of one who fought his way clear of the inability to think and whatnot...perhaps you could start a group?

Confessions of an Ex Doomer
cliffhanger1983 wrote:This is the last time I ever comment back to anything you say. You are not worth my time and you want to argue because you have no evidence...


I have YOUR evidence...and the ability to refute probably anything you reference from any one of those articles. Because I can use google. And think. That's about all it takes for your stuff.




Read this Dimwit..Peer Reviewed and authored by a physicist...Try Page 56

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sun 22 Oct 2017, 08:02:45
by asg70


JD was ahead of his time. He was bashing peak-oil when the data on the ground was mostly pointing towards doom. It's a pity it's not possible to find him and have him update his commentary as so much of his work is now out of date by not talking about shale, evs, automation, etc...

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:27:40
by marmico
It's 8+ years since Korowizc did his ASPO Europe presentation and penultimately concluded:

--->Well, here is a scenario that seems likely. In essence, at some point in the future, over some period, the debt/ bond market will switch from being ultimately confident about the return to economic growth, to accepting that uncertainty and depression can only continue. As we know, markets tend to change their views over short-time periods.

An acknowledgement of this view will dry up the debt market, crash other markets, and will effectively mean that almost all debt cannot be repaid (or can, with worthless money). This means that all banks will be seen as insolvent.

The speed of such a transition could be in the order of months (baring in mind the propagation speed of the recent financial crisis). A collapse of bank intermediation services would effectively collapse our global and national supply-chains, in addition to instigating a money crisis.

The consequences would be unprecedented, including the prospect of a food crisis in many advanced economies. This would be the detonation point when the world finally absorbs the depth of its ecological overshoot<---

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6887

How is that detonation thingie working out?

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:55:53
by Cliffhanger1983
marmico wrote:It's 8+ years since Korowizc did his ASPO Europe presentation and penultimately concluded:

--->Well, here is a scenario that seems likely. In essence, at some point in the future, over some period, the debt/ bond market will switch from being ultimately confident about the return to economic growth, to accepting that uncertainty and depression can only continue. As we know, markets tend to change their views over short-time periods.

An acknowledgement of this view will dry up the debt market, crash other markets, and will effectively mean that almost all debt cannot be repaid (or can, with worthless money). This means that all banks will be seen as insolvent.

The speed of such a transition could be in the order of months (baring in mind the propagation speed of the recent financial crisis). A collapse of bank intermediation services would effectively collapse our global and national supply-chains, in addition to instigating a money crisis.

The consequences would be unprecedented, including the prospect of a food crisis in many advanced economies. This would be the detonation point when the world finally absorbs the depth of its ecological overshoot<---

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6887

How is that detonation thingie working out?






From Error to Error we discover the entire truth. -Freud


NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:59:41
by Cliffhanger1983
asg70 wrote:


JD was ahead of his time. He was bashing peak-oil when the data on the ground was mostly pointing towards doom. It's a pity it's not possible to find him and have him update his commentary as so much of his work is now out of date by not talking about shale, evs, automation, etc...




The 1973 so-called “oil embargo” which reduced oil supply to the USA by somewhere around 3% or 4%. It slammed the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, severely damaged US industry and caused a 55 MPH national speed limit which remained in effect for ten years. The government also put restrictions on how much gasoline you could purchase. There were fist fights and even a couple murders between the public at gas stations. Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.



IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-g ... 1493244000

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-mini ... 1476870790

Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html

The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 151300342X

Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 6114010254

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 13:18:22
by Outcast_Searcher
marmico wrote:It's 8+ years since Korowizc did his ASPO Europe presentation and penultimately concluded:

--->Well, here is a scenario that seems likely. In essence, at some point in the future, over some period, the debt/ bond market will switch from being ultimately confident about the return to economic growth, to accepting that uncertainty and depression can only continue. As we know, markets tend to change their views over short-time periods.

And shows total cluelessness with the words "depression can only continue". Because unless you're talking about the mood of doomers, there is no global depression or US depression in sight, much less "continuing.

But fast crash doomers have problems with basic economic words, since their prognostications are perpetually wrong. So they make things up.

Popular in the doomer echo-chamber, apparently, but zero traction with those who actually pay attention to economic facts and figures on the ground, and what they mean day to day and year to year in the real world economy -- instead of in perpetual fear (or hope) of some worst case scenario which might come to pass SOME day.

So when we've actually been in a depression for several years with no sign of recovery, then this clown should be sure and get back to us.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 14:15:09
by ROCKMAN
Outcast - Great points as usual. It always tickles me when I see these folks use intentionally loaded terms like "collapse". I used to ask them to quantify that term so we can set a marker to know when we've gotten there. Obviously they seldom tried. Eventually I tiered of the sport of embarrassing them...been going on for more then 10 years when I began hanging out at TOD. LOL.

Just like I've tired of the sport of asking the " MODEL" believers to tell us when we'll begin to see the big drop in pill prices. The closer we get to that magical date and don't see a serious and CONTINUOUS slide the more they avoided my question. I figure another 12 to 18 months without seeing the beginning of the "end of the petroleum industry" they'll slowly receed into the bushes. LOL.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 16:07:16
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Read this Dimwit..Peer Reviewed and authored by a physicist...Try Page 56

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/


BINGO!!! This was the Futilists favorite reference of all time!!! You went absolutely bonkers when people wouldn't pay attention to it last time...and seeing as we are all still here anyway...you figure another year or two later it is any more relevant?

Was wondering who you were.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 16:12:19
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:
marmico wrote:How is that detonation thingie working out?


From Error to Error we discover the entire truth. -Freud


NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 0914000615

The Royal Society: Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We're Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf


And what does Freud have to do with ANY of these links? Can you discuss anything in them, or is this just your next carpet bombing list?

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 16:20:12
by AdamB
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:The 1973 so-called “oil embargo” which reduced oil supply to the USA by somewhere around 3% or 4%. It slammed the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, severely damaged US industry and caused a 55 MPH national speed limit which remained in effect for ten years. The government also put restrictions on how much gasoline you could purchase.


Yes. We are all aware of the last real energy crisis.

CLiffhanger1983 wrote: Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will.


That is a conclusion based on what at best is your ill-informed speculation. If you had the intellectual capacity to discuss even a single link you carpet bomb with, you might get taken seriously. But you can't, and therefore you won't. Plus, this is very similar to the same claim made by LATOC back before they revealed the insider knowledge on peak oilers being religious believers looking for daddy figures. Who were you then? Still the Futilist?

cliffhanger1983 wrote: When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.


The same things have been claimed before. Probably even by you, back when you thought it was happening a decade ago. And you can't even say why this conclusion is any better thought out then the last time folks said it was going to happen.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 18:39:54
by Newfie
Wow!

Read a bit but I’m not gonna wade through all this stuff.

And I’m not gonna wade into the argument.

I’m sure collapse will come in due time, too many things we are running out of.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 20:20:16
by ralfy
Collapse may refer to catastrophic failure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophic_failure

in turn leading to cascading failure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure

An example is a collapse of, say, several oil companies due to peak oil, leading to catastrophic failure for one aspect of industrial societies (say, manufacturing output and JIT systems), which in turn is part of multiple crises including pollution and increasing population leading to cascading failure (high death rates) as part of limits to growth:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse

These are not based on "doom" but on physical laws, i.e., ecological footprint exceeding biocapacity, pollution impacting biocapacity, diminishing returns, etc.

There are crises that cannot be predicted easily, such as epidemics and pandemics (driven by combinations of mutations plus increased vectors in the spread of disease, such as urban or human migration, increased contact with wilderness areas, a breakdown in sanitation systems, etc.), wars (driven by increased arms production and deployment across more than three decades coupled with the fact that military forces need to justify spending), and more. Meanwhile, other crises, such as global warming and increasing debt, have parts that are predicable and others that are not (such as the relation between multiple feedback loops in the first and lack of regulation in the second). All of these may make cascading failure worse, in turn leading to multiple fast crashes, mainly because predictions about them logically go in the direction of increased crises.

Finally, perhaps the reason why combinations of crises amplifying each other leading to collapse should be taken seriously is because the global system involves combinations of complexity and bifurcation:

http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2011/10/08/o ... d-economy/

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Tue 24 Oct 2017, 20:51:03
by AdamB
Newfie wrote:Wow!

I’m sure collapse will come in due time, too many things we are running out of.


But..and importantly for this particular website....not oil or natural gas. :)

Of course, all such claims are time dependent. So...what are running out of by, say, mid-century? Again, not oil and gas, but I'm curious as to what other items are on the list?

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postPosted: Wed 25 Oct 2017, 01:36:17
by asg70
AdamB wrote:what are running out of by, say, mid-century?


The biggest ones I'm concerned about are: topsoil, freshwater, pollinators, stable enough weather and rainfall to support agriculture where it's being practiced. (We're not just gonna suddenly move the world's breadbasket toward the poles.)

High technology as enabled through fossil fuels is super important but civilization lives or dies on the food supply. Take away agriculture and everything else collapses. Wreck the climate and we're toast even if the entire planet switches to renewables because we're not gonna feed billions of people under flimsy tarp greenhouses ala Blade Runner 2049.

You're good when you're riffing on the continued resistance of the peak-oil movement to cede failure on their predictions but when you try to downplay the rest of limits to growth you really do come off as a corny.