Since I am a scientist I tend to put a lot of weight on the actual data, and the data shows production has recently dropped. I find it interesting how many people don't accept that data at face value.
once again, it matters why the production levels are lower not the fact they are.
As far as your suggestion that Aramco might have shifted oil production elsewhere because it is cheaper for Aramco to produce oil elsewhere, I personally doubt thats the reason because Ghawar is KSA's main field and its well known that oil production at Ghawar can be done very very cheaply. In fact, for decades oil at Ghawar has been among the least expensive to produce in the entire world.
once again read the prospectus or at least the excerpts I have supplied from it. Aramco points out that they manage their fields to optimize recovery factors and take advantage of oil grade demand changes.
The Company actively manages its prolific reserves base in accordance with the Kingdom’s laws and regulations to maximise long-term value while optimising ultimate recovery from its fields. Because of the size and number of its fields and MSC, the Company is able to maintain its desired level of overall production by tapping into new reservoirs when required to improve long term value through portfolio capacity optimisation. This approach, which differs from the typical industry practice of maximising production rates per field, is more capital efficient given the nature of the resources available and leads to more stable production and higher ultimate oil recoveries.
Furthermore, the Company’s MSC and integrated logistics network allow it to vary crude oil production, which combined with their compatibility with global refining systems, provides the Company with a unique ability to respond to changes in demand for the Company’s crude oil grades.
Almost certainly it would be more expensive for Aramco to explore for oil in new areas, work up the data and find new fields, drill test wells in remote new areas and then develop new infrastructure to produce any oil found there, and even more new infrastructure to store the oil and more infrastructure to transport new oil to market. NOPE....IMHO its unlikely they shifted their attention away from Ghawar in order to produce oil more cheaply.... There might be a strategic or political reason for it, but it probably doesn't save them any money.
All of their fields are now integrated into the Smart Field system whereby all drilling, completions, production, separation, transport etc. (essentially all activities) are captured in real time and integrated into their full field models. They have published on this. Now that all of the integration of surface facilities has been completed (the megaprojects) the cost to drill and complete at Ghawar will be essentially the same as at Shaybah, Khurais or any of the other fields. The depths are similar, number of laterals required similar. The only time when costs will be different is when they are drilling a new sidetrack versus a new well. Given at these newer fields the drilling of new wells to reach MSC levels was complete by 2010 all that remains is drilling new sidetracks to make up for lost production. Why they would move their activities elsewhere is the demand for super light oil (eg: Shaybah) may be higher because of lost production from other countries of the same grade (Libya) or there may be greater Asian demand at a certain time for heavier oil such as produced at Saffaniyah.
Given the fact that oilcos have a well known tendency to produce their best prospects first, in order to maximize their profits, my suspicion is production at Ghawar is dropping because some areas of the field just aren't producing much oil anymore---the water cut is getting higher and higher, to the point that its now up to 98% in at least one of the sub-fields.
As Aramco says they are not behaving like Western companies but rather because of their large reserves and flexibility they are actively managing their fields.
And as to the comment about 98% water cut. The area with 98% water cut was where they were running the CO2 disposal and enhanced recovery evaluation program. It was specifically selected in a part of Ghawar that had been completely swept and depleted years ago in order to see if they could still recover additional oil. The part of the reservoir that has the bulk of the 48 billion bbls remaining is almost certainly produced at the same water cut it has been for a number of years (40%) mainly because they manage it with horizontal wells and low drawdown. But given actual lifting costs in Saudi Arabia are only about $4.50/bbl they could easily afford to produce wells to very high water cut for a long time. There are many fields in the world that have been producing at greater than 90% water cut (some from the very start). You just need to be able to deal with the additional water through separation and either reinjection or treatment and reuse.