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Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Pt. 2

Unread postby IslandCrow » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 12:23:15

I was looking to the airlines with passangers as an indication of the problem with peak oil. Now the ecomony is making sure the freight side is taking a major hit:

'Unprecedented' fall in air cargo

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) saw air cargo go into "freefall" in December, with a year-on-year fall of 22.6% in traffic.

The "unprecedented" figure is worse than the 14% drop after the 9/11 terror attacks on New York.
...
Iata says that during 2009 there will be declines of 3% in air passenger traffic and 5% in freight cargo carried.
...

About 35% of international goods trade is by air, says Iata. In 2008, cargo traffic fell 4% compared with a 4.3% increase in 2007, the body said, its first annual fall since 2001.


I presume the 35% figure relates to value of goods and not weight! Given the size of the fall in December, I think Iata is being very optimistic for 2009.
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Re: Airline Bankruptcy/Merger/Layoffs Thread

Unread postby IslandCrow » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 12:30:00

Also not good for Boeing's dream(liner):

Russia's S7 cancels order

Russian airline S7 has cancelled an order worth $2.4bn (£1.7bn) for 15 Boeing-787 Dreamliner aircraft.

It is the first airline to cancel a major contract for the 787.
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Re: The Canary in the Mineshaft

Unread postby careinke » Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:10:10

"This birds not dead, he's just sleeping".
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Re: Dead Canary Alerts. What are yours?

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Tue 15 Feb 2011, 12:05:14

Peakoil.com is my dead canary.

Usually when a small group sounds an alarm and the masses choose to ignore it, it's usually too late.
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Re: How's your Canary?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 21 Feb 2011, 19:29:24

Really?

On PeakOil.com, ostensibly the place where we all know just how important oil is to our lifestyle, no one is considering making any short term changes due to the fact that the arab world is in revolution - the same Arab world that provides somewhere around half of all oil exports?

Interesting.
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Re: How's your Canary?

Unread postby eXpat » Wed 23 Feb 2011, 14:38:09

Mine is like this:
Image
We haven´t seen anything yet. Wait till the real bumpy road begins :| .
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Re: Dead Canary Alerts. What are yours?

Unread postby sparky » Fri 22 Apr 2011, 17:18:09

On canary mortality, there is two understandings , one is "canary in the mine."

those birds have a very high metabolic rate and are very sensitive to toxic gas ( not methane ) their death would indicate the presence of monoxide of carbon from the lamps and other fire , CO2 make you sick , CO poison you by accumulation . the miners would have to keep working , a dead canary was deemed the safety limit. That canary alert is of an increasing toxic environment

The other is that canaries were used during WW1 after a gas attack to work out if the trenches and dugouts were safe , gas was heavier than air. That canary alert is to work out if it is safe to go back to normal

No real difference , for me as a doomer , it's the sign of a severe deterioration of the whole worldwide economic edifice the permanent end of the age of electricity. A mere world war doesn't quite make it as doom ,been there done that , but it would be a good indication of things getting out of control

the price of gasoline at 5$ a gallon is the reality for most of the world already, the U.S. motorist has been pampered for generation with disastrous results for the domestic car industry when the cows finally came home .
the gyration of the Dow Jones are little more than a circus act, the fate of the U.S. $ a pure consequence of past excess and , in itself , the cure
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Re: THE Dead Canary Thread (merged)

Unread postby ritter » Tue 07 Jun 2011, 00:48:14

The party is just getting going!
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Re: Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 16:13:02

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/b ... 99140.html

Why are there so many people in favor of this merger? It would mean major layoffs in those airports where both airlines have service right now.
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Re: Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Thread (merged)

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 16:42:21

Subjectivist wrote:http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/barack-obama-allies-airline-merger-american-airlines-us-airways-99140.html

Why are there so many people in favour of this merger? It would mean major layoffs in those airports where both airlines have service right now.

Quite simply because airlines have been forced to do more with less support staff & facilities, mergers are the only way they can achieve that.
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Re: Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Nov 2013, 20:19:44

With all the distractions going on I had completely forgotten this story was still unresolved. I wonder if the Big Donors will be able to get the Justice department to drop the lawsuit and let the merger go through? President Obama is term limited out so why should he care about political donations at this point, ACA is his legacy and nobody is going to forget him when he retires in 2017.
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Re: Airline Bankruptcy / Merger / Layoffs Thread (merged)

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 04 Nov 2013, 14:29:59

I think the USAirways/American merger legal battle is about some fat cat in Washington getting his way. Slots or more flights, possibly new construction dollars etc. It will be resolved through a settlement and they will be allowed to finish the process. Someone did not like what they saw and pulled some strings to get something that their greed requires.

Payola, corruption, greed, kickback...call it what you want but it seems that is how government operates these days since NO ONE is holding their feet to the fire.
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Re: THE Dead Canary Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 29 Mar 2014, 06:48:20

This thread started out about the merger and death of more and more airlines being the canary in the peak oil mine because airlines are more fuel cost sensitive than most industrial activities. In that light another long existing airlines closed this week.
A storied name in U.S. military transport is fading into history. World Airways shut down on Thursday amid a failure to find financing, four months after its parent company blamed Pentagon budget cuts for a sharp squeeze in business and put the airline into bankruptcy.

World Airways was founded in 1948 and transported U.S. troops starting in 1951, when the U.S. entered the Korean conflict. The charter airline flew its last flight on Wednesday, a day after its primary creditor declared the company in default and ended financing; World laid off 325 employees on Thursday. ”A lot of people have worked hard to try to save our airline,” Eric Bergesen, World Airways’ chief operating officer, said in a news release. “Despite this regrettable outcome, I sincerely thank each of our employees for their dedication and continued support as we attempted to build a future for the company.”


More at the link
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... dot-troops
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Will the slowdown of air travel be the PO alarm bell?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Jul 2014, 11:33:54

Ibon wrote:Besides moving people I can't come up with many absolute essential items moved by air freight. Many businesses however depend on air freight for their Just in Time delivery systems. Dell for example. This corporate model is incredibly energy inefficient and only works in a cheap oil world were the costs of shipping is a small percentage of a total cost of a product. It not only requires airfreight for it to work but it also keeps delivery systems dependent on freight trucks instead of by slower rail.

I could imagine companies charging large transportation fuel surcharges for faster deliveries. How many people would wait 3-4 weeks instead of 3-4 days on the delivery of a new Dell computer for example if the slower delivery enabled them to save $100.00 off the price of the product?



Apr 2004 880,922
May 2004 898,533
Jun 2004 903,628
Jul 2004 943,579
Aug 2004 953,883
Sep 2004 878,295
Oct 2004 922,481
Nov 2004 880,899
Dec 2004 902,537
Jan 2005 874,970
Feb 2005 822,763
Mar 2005 938,077
Apr 2005 907,088
May 2005 943,824
Jun 2005 935,753
Jul 2005 965,137
Aug 2005 966,829
Sep 2005 879,305
Oct 2005 894,881
Nov 2005 859,291
Dec 2005 870,070
Jan 2006 854,366
Feb 2006 779,332
Mar 2006 897,220
Apr 2006 866,020
May 2006 895,904
Jun 2006 894,934
Jul 2006 932,287
Aug 2006 945,269
Sep 2006 865,532
Oct 2006 893,960
Nov 2006 856,846
Dec 2006 876,683
Jan 2007 875,910
Feb 2007 789,443
Mar 2007 905,088
Apr 2007 882,000
May 2007 916,820
Jun 2007 907,227
Jul 2007 943,803
Aug 2007 951,928
Sep 2007 871,528
Oct 2007 907,785
Nov 2007 870,798
Dec 2007 876,304
Jan 2008 866,101
Feb 2008 814,993
Mar 2008 893,947
Apr 2008 872,408
May 2008 893,808
Jun 2008 890,626
Jul 2008 924,376
Aug 2008 901,329
Sep 2008 790,019
Oct 2008 821,428
Nov 2008 769,649
Dec 2008 787,332
Jan 2009 778,746
Feb 2009 722,738
Mar 2009 819,020
Apr 2009 797,800
May 2009 814,786
Jun 2009 828,510
Jul 2009 867,673
Aug 2009 853,848
Sep 2009 769,479
Oct 2009 786,746
Nov 2009 755,358
Dec 2009 771,565
Jan 2010 763,276
Feb 2010 684,497
Mar 2010 811,566
Apr 2010 790,385
May 2010 811,509
Jun 2010 823,681
Jul 2010 860,995
Aug 2010 856,771
Sep 2010 780,880
Oct 2010 801,544
Nov 2010 766,888
Dec 2010 770,465
Jan 2011 751,425
Feb 2011 688,841
Mar 2011 828,407
Apr 2011 790,460
May 2011 813,209
Jun 2011 828,387
Jul 2011 862,353
Aug 2011 841,926
Sep 2011 769,888
Oct 2011 787,819
Nov 2011 745,073
Dec 2011 770,842
Jan 2012 747,385
Feb 2012 713,451
Mar 2012 803,714
Apr 2012 777,568
May 2012 797,259
Jun 2012 809,011
Jul 2012 835,340
Aug 2012 830,022
Sep 2012 742,150
Oct 2012 759,163
Nov 2012 732,713
Dec 2012 740,314
Jan 2013 732,181
Feb 2013 671,818
Mar 2013 785,679
Apr 2013 763,142
May 2013 793,536
Jun 2013 793,568
Jul 2013 830,339
Aug 2013 823,618
Sep 2013 746,576
Oct 2013 770,330
Nov 2013 719,460
Dec 2013 731,935
Jan 2014 692,704
Feb 2014 637,977
Mar 2014 769,273
Apr 2014 738,403

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, T-100 Market and Segment


This is a list of world wide flight statistics from April 2004 to April 2014. In theory at least every passenger flight both domestic and international is counted in these statistics.

Apr 2004--------- 880,922
Apr 2005--------- 907,088
Apr 2006 --------- 866,020
Apr 2007 --------- 882,000
Apr 2008--------- 872,408
Apr 2009--------- 797,800
Apr 2010--------- 790,385
Apr 2011--------- 790,460
Apr 2012--------- 777,568
Apr 2013--------- 763,142
Apr 2014--------- 738,403
Based on these statistics passenger air traffic peaked in 2005, right before conventional oil peaked, and has been declining gradually ever since. Part of this is undoubtedly the economy, and partly because this is a count of flights and not individual passengers it is a reflection of the move to larger and larger aircraft.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Dead Canary Thread (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Fri 25 Jul 2014, 11:36:36

And regular overbooking to fill every seat, every flight?
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Re: Airlines THE Dead Canary Thread

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Jul 2014, 13:01:38

I suspect that is correct Pops. I don't suppose you have a graph handy of the data I posted? I looked around and couldn't find one but you being our resident graph expert and all....
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Airlines THE Dead Canary Thread

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 25 Jul 2014, 13:16:51

Part of this is undoubtedly the economy, and partly because this is a count of flights and not individual passengers it is a reflection of the move to larger and larger aircraft.

It's not just the fewer and larger aircraft, it is also the use of smaller and more efficient planes on the shorter routes and more careful flight planning.

For example Ryanair will leave their aircraft all over Europe rather than fly them "home" half empty.
A half empty flight used to be a common sight, but very rare these days as some airlines would cancel such flights and transfer the passengers to other flights.

The airline industry has made some major changes to remain in business after the quadrupling of fuel prices over the past decade.
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Re: Airlines THE Dead Canary Thread

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 25 Jul 2014, 16:01:43

dolanbaker wrote:
Part of this is undoubtedly the economy, and partly because this is a count of flights and not individual passengers it is a reflection of the move to larger and larger aircraft.

It's not just the fewer and larger aircraft, it is also the use of smaller and more efficient planes on the shorter routes and more careful flight planning.

For example Ryanair will leave their aircraft all over Europe rather than fly them "home" half empty.
A half empty flight used to be a common sight, but very rare these days as some airlines would cancel such flights and transfer the passengers to other flights.

The airline industry has made some major changes to remain in business after the quadrupling of fuel prices over the past decade.


The last year British Airways and Air France operated the Concorde they took huge losses by flying at well under capacity just yo maintain flight scheduals. They bled themselves dry financially flying a 110 capacity aircraft with as few as 4 passengers aboard. If they had cut ticket prices to equal first class on a regular flight they would have been flying full. 110 times $2000.00 is way ahead of 4 times $8,000.00 by any kind of sensible math. Once they were flying at full capacity they could have edged the price up bit by bit to see what people were willing to pay, but instead they just hrew the towel in an quit.

It is likely the run up of jet fuel would have killed the Concorde in 2008, but they gave up in 2003 due to bad decision making so we will never know if they could have made a go of it. Watching the history documentary about the Concorde a while back they discussed the fact that British Airways almost stopped flying them in the early 1980's until they figured out they could charge premium prices. It seems strange that they were unwilling to adjust prices in 2003 again to try and find their market.
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Re: Airlines THE Dead Canary Thread

Unread postby Pops » Sat 26 Jul 2014, 07:50:01

Not to sound too corny but there is a range of mitigation in every area of modern life, not the simplistic either/or "Non-negotiable Lifestyle" and "Total Systemic Collapse" dichotomy that makes for good blog posts.

The one thing Peakers should have learned over the last 10-20 years is a self-organizing system will reorganize when disturbed. This canary won't simply fall off it's perch without warning, it will grow bigger lungs at the expense of its pretty singing voice, shed the colorful plumage and grow scales in it's place, and develop big claws to hang on to that perch at all costs.

Airlines become more "efficient" by cutting flights, packing the seats, eliminating the peanuts and loser routes. This is how the world as you know it ends, not with a bang or a whimper but scratching and clawing every inch.

The canary is more like an alligator.
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