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Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Sun 06 Jan 2019, 13:13:32
by dohboi
Combustion Engines Peaked In 2018: It’s All Downhill For ICE Now

Many of the large automotive manufacturers are already adopting electrification as a way to improve the efficiency of their cars. Still, the internal combustion engine will continue to play a major role in the industry within the next at least two decades but, looking at what experts say, it’s probably safe to assume the ICE’s peak is now a thing of the past.

After speaking to specialists from the auto industry, Financial Times published a comprehensive report about the fossil-burning engine. Interestingly, several experts told the publication sales of ICE-powered vehicles peaked in 2018 which basically means it’s unlikely that more cars with ICEs will be sold within a year in the future.

“We will probably see the peak of combustion engine car sales in 2018 based on global sales through October, plus estimates for November and December,” Felipe Munoz, global automotive analyst for Jato Dynamics, told Financial Times.

As of January 2018, predictions were that the demand for ICE-powered cars will continue to grow until its peak in 2022. It turns out that the major drop in overall new car deliveries in the three largest regions in terms of sales, Europe, the U.S., and China, might have significantly changed the forecast.

“When you look at 2018 since the summer, new car sales in all of the important markets are going down. Selling combustion engine cars to customers – this will not grow in the future,” commented Axel Schmidt, global automotive lead for Accenture.

In 2019, global vehicle sales aren’t expected to decline as electric vehicles are expected to quadruple their market share to about 1.6 percent. Even if overall sales increase through the next 12 months, deliveries of ICE-powered vehicles will likely fall, say specialists.

Source: Financial Times via Futurism and TheDrive ... -rise/amp/

Re: Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Mon 07 Jan 2019, 09:39:07
by vtsnowedin
I will not get too excited about the peak in ICE production. With 81 million new cars built last year just two million of them were electric and about half of them were hybrids. Demand for new vehicles is growing by one to two million vehicles per year so even if fully electric vehicles doubles every year it would take until 2024 to equal new vehicle total demand and a more likely sustained rate of growth of 25 percent would yield just one out of four new cars being electric by 2030.
You don't have to take my word for it there is this.
By the end of 2018, the plug-in vehicle population will reach around 5,4 million worldwide, an increase of 64 % over 2017 year end. Still, the impact on the total vehicle stock will be hardly noticeable in most countries. 5,4 million plug-ins on a global light vehicle population of around 1,3 billion, is just 0,4 %, one in 250. Growth is exponential, though, and the overall picture will change much faster than historic sales suggest. Adoption of successful technology is along S-curves, not straight lines. ... e-volumes/

The two car families of the world will be the first adopters as they can easily choose the EV for the short commute and the second ICE vehicle for long trips. It will be a long time before every two car family has one EV and starts looking favorably on owning two.
In the meantime there are a lot of ICE cars to be built and sold.

Re: Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Mon 07 Jan 2019, 12:02:13
by asg70
pstarr wrote:Peak...Peak...Peak...Peak...Peak...Peak...Peak...

How about peak FUD?


Re: Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:39:32
by Outcast_Searcher
Peak sedan, perhaps. Which is very stupid in itself, since SUV's and trucks are generally significantly less efficient than sedans due to weight, air resistance, etc.

Meanwhile, how is it that educated people are so innumerate when it comes to scale.

We have pure BEV's taking up only a couple percent or so of the global market for passenger vehicles. If BEV's manage to grow at 25% a year, it will take roughly 3 years for that percentage to double.

Meanwhile, with the global appetite for growth, a modest 5% growth rate in ICE's (and hybrids, which have ICE's) would dwarf the number of new BEV's. I don't think it's at all safe to assume that places like China, the US, etc. have peaked in passenger vehicles sales. A lot depends on economic strength going forward. (Yes I know fast crash doomers, fast crash is always imminent, but for those who deal in economic reality, it's not at all clear).

When we cross the 20% or so level of BEV's, then we may well be at the peak ICE point. It's quite premature to claim that at more like the 2% point.

Re: Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:40:36
by KaiserJeep
Personallly, all the ice I need, I make in my freezer.

Re: Peak ICE!?

Unread postPosted: Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:50:25
by Outcast_Searcher
GASMON wrote:Peak Lithium (and rare earths needed for electric motor magnets etc) just around the corner !!

Ah, the endless empty claims we're about to run out of everything. Uncited, of course.

Have you looked at the lithium and other rare earth reserves? They're HUGE. It's mainly a question of cost.

On the order of 100 million metric tons known today. With current technology.

As if innovation, substitution, efficiency, recycling, etc. won't ever enable that to last, or more to be made available over time. :roll: ... d-deposits ... worldwide/

An example of why we very likely haven't found even close to all of them yet. (Kind of reminds me of oil, gold, copper, natural gas, etc). ... pan-2018-4