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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 14:57:08
by Newfie
Ahmen.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 15:28:51
by KaiserJeep
To hearken back to the original thread topic, recall that one aspect of Hubbert's theory was that the production peak would occur when HALF the resouce was consumed:
Image
...and half remained to be pumped/refined/consumed. Well, the first half of that curve started in the 2nd half of the 19th century, and 150-odd years later, we MAY hit the peak soon, possibly this year.

Oil will remain available for decades, at steadily higher prices. Probably NOT another 150 years, since EROEI also plays a part here. Say we go way pessimistic and say the second half of the production curve is 1/3rd shorter than the first, and we only have a century of oil left.

That is pretty damned serious for our great great grandkids. But it doesn't seem that serious for us.

YES, I get it. We will be increasingly uncomfortable as time passes and the value of money dilutes. IOW, BAU, piled higher and deeper. My argument still is we are in a Long Emergency scenario, not a peak oil crash scenario.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 15:58:42
by GHung
KaiserJeep wrote:To hearken back to the original thread topic, recall that one aspect of Hubbert's theory was that the production peak would occur when HALF the resouce was consumed:
Image
...and half remained to be pumped/refined/consumed. Well, the first half of that curve started in the 2nd half of the 19th century, and 150-odd years later, we MAY hit the peak soon, possibly this year.

Oil will remain available for decades, at steadily higher prices. Probably NOT another 150 years, since EROEI also plays a part here. Say we go way pessimistic and say the second half of the production curve is 1/3rd shorter than the first, and we only have a century of oil left.

That is pretty damned serious for our great great grandkids. But it doesn't seem that serious for us.

YES, I get it. We will be increasingly uncomfortable as time passes and the value of money dilutes. IOW, BAU, piled higher and deeper. My argument still is we are in a Long Emergency scenario, not a peak oil crash scenario.


I skewed this graph years ago showing how technology would likely pull the production peak to the right. It was actually before current technology was proven to let producers suck the bottom of the barrel, and some (over at TOD I think) insisted Hubberts peak would be more symetrical. Now?

Image

Time will tell if the overall decline rate will be steeper once technology reaches its limits. And it will.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 16:56:08
by Pops
KaiserJeep wrote:To hearken back to the original thread topic, recall that one aspect of Hubbert's theory was that the production peak would occur when HALF the resouce was consumed:


Actually no:

Hubbert wrote:A more effective means (Hubbert, 1950a, 1950b) of extrapolating such growth curves is afforded by two basic considerations: (l) For any production curve of a finite resource of fixed amount, two points on the curve are known at the outset, namely that at t = 0 and again at t = ∞. The production rate will be zero when the reference time is zero, and the rate will again be zero when the resource is exhausted; that is to say, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero, and then after passing through one or several maxima, it must decline again to zero.


I made the same mistake, but then realized it was a mistake.

The other part was the linearization that tried to predict the peak. It hasn't worked out so well because "all things being equal" never stays that way.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 17:16:34
by Pops
GHung wrote:Image


Very good! Lots easier than mine:

Image

I did one like it for LTO, guessing that along with short term distraction it would make the initial, inevitable decline worse...

Image

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 17:22:39
by Plantagenet
Pops wrote:Hubbert.... the linearization that tried to predict the peak. It hasn't worked out so well ....


Hubbert knew there was a lot of unconventional oil out there, but he never even dreamed of the huge amounts of oil that could be produced economically from tight oil shale in the USA.

The US and the world may still get to peak oil someday, but not until one heck of a lot of tight oil shale production happens first.

For a while some folks were trying to rationalize away TOS oil production as some kind of financial bubble that would pop when the easy credit ran out, but we're 12 years into the TOS shale boom in the US, and its still going and the EIA predicts TOS production won't peak until ca. 2040-50.

Cheers!

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 18:22:10
by Newfie
And when we get to tight oil do we then turn to coal gasification? Extending the plateau even further?

My guess is as the plateau extends we will build out alts, then we will start doing some conservation, then gasification (climate change be damed) all the while growing the world’s population.

At some point something goes “POP” and the bubble bursts. I’m guessing financial crisi but it could also be a migrant crisis. Who knows?

I’m 68, I’m betting it won’t kill me. Hope I’m right.

2¢.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 18:29:54
by KaiserJeep
My own bet: Nothing ever goes "pop". Things get incrementally worse for at least another century. During that century, 6-10 billion people die, and their deaths are recorded in bit-perfect digital storage, all the horror intact forever.

It really is quite horrible to contemplate. The slowness of it is perhaps the worst aspect.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 18:35:05
by Pops
EIA's firm prediction is anywhere from around 7 to 19Mb/d of total crude in 2050 give or take 10Mb/d*

Image

(* and they're sticking to it, unless something changes in which case all signs of this essentially worthless CYA WAG will disappear faster than mention of climate change from an EPA website.)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 18:39:35
by GHung
Plantagenet wrote:
Hubbert knew there was a lot of unconventional oil out there, but he never even dreamed of the huge amounts of oil that could be produced economically from tight oil shale in the USA. .....

....... For a while some folks were trying to rationalize away TOS oil production as some kind of financial bubble that would pop when the easy credit ran out, but we're 12 years into the TOS shale boom in the US, and its still going and the EIA predicts TOS production won't peak until ca. 2040-50.


Most of Hubberts work was done before the digital revolution and the Nixon shock (end of Bretton Woods, etc.) He had no way of knowing how technology would progress at an accelerated rate, and how future Fed and government juicing of the economy could pull future production, demand, and consumption forward. I don't think anyone could have factored these things into their predictions (well, Asimov maybe).

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 20:08:37
by Ibon
KaiserJeep wrote:My own bet: Nothing ever goes "pop".


What about something that used to go pop but is getting more difficult as time goes by? I think I have passed Peak Pop!

Definitely on the decline curve!

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 20:34:03
by KaiserJeep
Me, I mostly drink pop nowadays. Better yet, sparkling water. As for Peak Pop, this is a family forum, after all, shame on you, Ibon.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Fri 04 Jan 2019, 07:14:32
by Newfie
Frankly I drink pop for fizz. Shake up the can, pop the lid and it will fizzle out.

But you can’t get it to fizzle until you pop it.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 07:26:47
by Ibon
Cog wrote:Say the word Ibon. I'm sure you can. Illegal aliens. The aren't immigrants no matter how loud you No borders, no walls, no usa at all, people want it.


All these years of looking at Hubberts bell curve peak oil graphics and the way we stretch it this way and that and put little plateaus on it is amusing but really I want to talk about The Wall.

For the first time in over a month I tapped into US politics and listened to some of the main stream media. I am now having second thoughts about The Wall. I know its just symbolic and that it serves no purpose but imagining this wall and being south of it and south of all the mindless political stupidity feels pretty good.

I was mentioning in another thread to Pstarr, Short and ASG70 that from the outside their back and forth petty bickering looks completely retarded. Well its not only their petty bickering that looks retarded from the outside. It's the whole frigging political and media theater up there in the USA that looks insane from down here.

Please, get the wall built because it will give me a sense of security that there is a barrier between me and the dysfunction up there. I understand that it is a false sense of security but I still want it built.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 09:56:46
by Newfie
Yes aibon, the whole country has lost the thread.

Well at least those that participate in the theater we call gevernment and the media.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 14:46:50
by KaiserJeep
One of the things - if not the main thing - driving my withdrawal from California is the existence of an undocumented 20% extra population in this state. They tend to cluster unevenly in the agricultural areas and the two major urban areas, which are the LA Basin and the SF Bay Area.

Everything we try to do is sickened by so many undocumented people. My daughter's high school had way too many students. I heard from a neighbor that that same school now has over 30% more students than the US Census said live in the school district. Federal funding is based on the Census data, and the school is chronicly underfunded, and it's getting worse.

I have bemoaned the sanctuary city/county/state before. Quite simply it amounts to the city/county/state conspiring to catch and release undocumented criminals. We just had another cop killed and the perp is in the wind.

If we had had a wall for even the most recent decade, this would still be the Great State of California. Instead it is turning Turd World - literally, so many local fruit orchards have migrant shacks without sanitary facilities, that E-coli outbreaks are more common as time passes.

I'm leaving. I would encourage all Liberal Democrats to come to the Left Coast and reap what those liberal policies have sown.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 15:05:12
by Cog
Careful KJ. I have been assured its racist to enforce borders or arrest illegals. At least that is what a good portion of this board believes.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 19:54:27
by Pops
This whole thread has lost the thread.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postPosted: Sun 06 Jan 2019, 16:13:45
by Yoshua
Everybody seems to have lost the thread. It's weird. What's going on? Are we post peak oil?