Pops wrote:somewhere up this road there is the hard place where geology becomes apparent, in maybe the next 5 years we just might see over the edge and need to drop down a gear or three.
Any guesses?
http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs
Gotta learn from your mistakes.
marmico wrote:Gotta learn from your mistakes.
Does it take 8 years?
In 2010 Brandt identified 45 historical models of future oil supply. None have any statistically significant predictive value.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6904
All of OPEC (save Iraq and perhaps SA?) is in decline.
The big fault seems ignoring above ground in the day to day. For example, is Venezuela's problem political or geological or economic or all three? Can they do anything? Will they?
IEA says if political shortages happen, spare capacity will be low and of course spare capacity is the main driver of price.
rockdoc123 wrote: In reality, of course, economics and politics come into play so most fields were never produced flat out, they were managed for various reasons, some regulatory and other economic.
... So it isn't so much about what resources countries have but the ability to bring them on stream at the right time which is all to do about politics, economics, war etc.
I don't think anybody currently really understands what total spare capacity might look like if there were no wars, sanctions or financial/political crises in oil-producing countries.
Pops wrote:Why only a decade?
Why not 2, or 10?
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the whole EV (of various flavors) and battery and green energy thing will start to make a meaningful difference. I think that will likely happen in less than two decades.
asg70 wrote:I mean, some of the endless prediction-as-sport gets silly if you're gonna be a head in a jar ala Futurama to witness whether it panned out as planned or not.
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