Re: Doomers and Bad Assumptions
Posted: Wed 04 Jul 2018, 09:08:37
[quote="Plantagenet"]
But DELAYING peak oil isn't the same as "getting past it.
[quote="asg70"]
The world really is about to end because I actually agree with this as well.
The system bug will not let me post if I use the quote HTML so I tried putting your statements in different colors of text to make clear who was saying what.
Perhaps it is time to revive the Plateau threads. Turns out we are all three in agreement and that is a rare event in this place these days.
Yes I know technically oil production on a world scale has not plateaued because the USA has grown incredibly in output over the last decade. But world demand has soaked up most of that expanded US Capacity at this point and is still growing robustly. At the same time growth elsewhere (compared to 2008 production rates) has been small while in some provinces like the North Sea declines have been relentless over the last decade balancing out those small increases elsewhere. If not for Fracking we would be well past world peak and if you accept that Hubbert was writing about 'conventional' reservoirs then we have been past peak for a while, we have just delayed the consequences by fracking our brains out in the USA. If not for the 'Great recession' that severely reduced USA/EU consumption for several years we might have proven peak to all and sundry by now including Mr. Lynch aka Spike. For those who care he most recently logged in last Friday but didn't find anything to say on that occasion. He mostly posts on the thread about himself and I might move these posts over there to get his attention.
But DELAYING peak oil isn't the same as "getting past it.
[quote="asg70"]
The world really is about to end because I actually agree with this as well.
The system bug will not let me post if I use the quote HTML so I tried putting your statements in different colors of text to make clear who was saying what.
Perhaps it is time to revive the Plateau threads. Turns out we are all three in agreement and that is a rare event in this place these days.
Yes I know technically oil production on a world scale has not plateaued because the USA has grown incredibly in output over the last decade. But world demand has soaked up most of that expanded US Capacity at this point and is still growing robustly. At the same time growth elsewhere (compared to 2008 production rates) has been small while in some provinces like the North Sea declines have been relentless over the last decade balancing out those small increases elsewhere. If not for Fracking we would be well past world peak and if you accept that Hubbert was writing about 'conventional' reservoirs then we have been past peak for a while, we have just delayed the consequences by fracking our brains out in the USA. If not for the 'Great recession' that severely reduced USA/EU consumption for several years we might have proven peak to all and sundry by now including Mr. Lynch aka Spike. For those who care he most recently logged in last Friday but didn't find anything to say on that occasion. He mostly posts on the thread about himself and I might move these posts over there to get his attention.