Peak Oil News and Message Boards

At the same time, the renewable energy sources will become more important. Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles. Solar power will surge globally in the coming decades, but oil demand will also continue to grow, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. "This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices". If US production stays at current levels, the IEA said, and a trend towards adopting electric cars accelerates, prices could stay between US$50 and US$70 a barrel until 2040. Lower prices are helping to support oil demand, and the IEA raised its projections for global consumption through

Plantagenet wrote:How do you imagine US oil and gas production will soar 25%?

Where exactly will the additional oil and NG come from?

Cheers!

coffeeguyzz wrote: you post outlandish- sounding comments like the one above ... "where will the additional oil and NG come from"?

coffeeguyzz wrote:
If you are ignorant of the qualified estimates regarding areas such as the Bakken, multiple Permian plays, Mancos, Haynesville/Bossier, Marcellus/Utica, fine.

GHung wrote:So the article posits that the US will be producing 11 - 12 mmbd, significantly more than it has ever produced, even as demand goes flat or drops?

Color me skeptical.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

GHung wrote:So the article posits that the US will be producing 11 - 12 mmbd, significantly more than it has ever produced, even as demand goes flat or drops?

Color me skeptical.

And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025? Credible sources like the EIA and IEA that use actual math and science are talking about higher demand in 2030 or even 2040, as the third world grows apace -- despite conservation, technology improvements, and alternative energy sources in the first world.

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

ROCKMAN wrote:$100/bbl for oil for the next 7 years...... Ask me some more...I'm on a roll. LOL.

GHung wrote:

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025?

It was alluded to in the article:

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

GHung wrote:

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025?

It was alluded to in the article:

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

1). As if a roughly .1% drop in the demand forecast is significant. Feel free to cling to that, even as in the real world oil demand increases meaningfully every single year when there isn't a deep global recession.

2). It's not like the auto fleet will double by 2023, now is it? So this is talking about an eventual date, more like 2040.

3). 55% of global oil used for transportation sounds about right. "Eventually" isn't 2023. In the mean time, something like 60 million ICE's will be added to the global fleet annually, and something like 2 million EV's or so. Only in your dreams will a net addition of nearly 400 million ICE cars by 2023 cause an oil demand drop, given how slowly the efficiency of the global ICE fleet rises.

4). Gee, if I only had a dollar for every number free, nonsensical prediction by some economist re the oil price or demand. Given point 3, this forecast looks ludicrous next to every forecast I've seen recently aside from the useless ETP theory.

So, your source is about of the quality I would have expected. Again, at least the IEA and EIA use science and math.

At the same time, the renewable energy sources will become more important.

GHung wrote:Jeez, O_S, try to not be such a confrontational ass. It's the article. Not me. If you have problems with that, contact the people making claims in the article. I didn't post the article OR the thread. Indeed, I was questioning the voracity of the claims in the article. Damned dishonest of you to imply otherwise.
Must really suck being some of you guys.

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

• Global transportation demand grows about 25 percent from 2015-2040
• Personal mobility demands continue to increase, but more efficient vehicles lead to a peak and eventual decline in light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy demand
• Growth in economic activity and personal income drives increasing trade of goods and services, leading to higher energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors
• Heavy duty growth is the largest by volume, but marine and aviation grow the largest by percentage

• Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquid fuels) increases by around 15 Mb/d, to reach 110 Mb/d by 2035.
• Oil continues to grow (0.7% p.a.), although its pace of growth is expected to slow gradually.
•In contrast, growth in non-combusted fuel use, particularly as a feedstock in petrochemicals, remains relatively robust (2.1% p.a.) in part because of its limited scope for efficiency gains.
• As a result, despite accounting for only a small fraction (6%) of current final energy use, non-combusted fuel use becomes the largest source of fossil fuel demand growth towards the end of the Outlook. Oil accounts for around two thirds of non-combusted sector’s growth, with natural gas providing much of the remainder.

ROCKMAN wrote: .....$100 oil for the next seven years....

ROCKMAN wrote: I don't predict long term oil prices. Never have...never will. That's a fool's game IMHO.