Page 16 of 16

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Fri 25 May 2018, 11:15:43
by Outcast_Searcher
ralfy wrote:It's too bad that in capitalist systems, efficiency takes place not to decrease consumption but the opposite, and that the goal of businesses is to see increasing consumption because that means more sales, and thus more profits.

It's a waste of time discussing these commonsensical points with Outcast. Use the ignore function.

Yes, heaven forbid someone looks at facts, figures, and real world trends instead of perma-doom FUD.

Efficiency is still taking place, and competition still exists. Pretending that the global ICE fleet mileage hasn't improved meaningfully, or that LED light bulbs aren't FAR more efficient than incandescent because you don't like the profit motives of the "capitalist systems" coming
up with the improvements doesn't change the reality one bit.

Ostriches work that way (ignoring what they don't like to see). Doesn't make them intelligent, though.

Ignore all you want. Good luck finding accurate, usable financial information over time in the doomer porn Cassandra blogs.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 20 Jun 2018, 15:09:05
by Plantagenet
Oil Production in Permian Basin to be capped in 3-4 months as pipelines are maxed out.


A new pipeline will be finished in a year or two. Until that happens the Permian has peaked. We'll have to see what the condition of the oil market is in a year or two to determine if production growth in the Permian can start up again.

Oil production in the Permian Basin has temporarily (?) peaked due to infrastructure limits.


Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Sun 08 Jul 2018, 18:17:26
by Plantagenet
Global Oil discoveries fell again in 2017---the energy cliff approaches


Once again the oilcos replaced only a small percentage of the oil consumed in 2017.

This can't go on forever.

We're probably only a year or two out from hitting the wall---or in this case----hitting the energy cliff.


Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Sun 08 Jul 2018, 19:50:13
by pstarr
I look forward to the SRSrocco Report; he is one of the few who understands the real relationship between money, debt and energy. Unfortunately he has a gold/silver agenda, perhaps for one or several reasons. Because his web site supports itself trading/analysis and is a source of income? That's fine with me, as I don't look for purity in any analysis or from any analyst. Perhaps he truly believes precious metals will have lasting value. That precious metals will be a hedge on the way down to a lower-energy lifestyle. Or be the barter of a future feudal economy?

When precious metals have intrinsic value . . . it will already be too late. The end of the fiat money system means the end of global trade, which the United States depends on for minerals, oil, industrial components, and other truly precious commodities that we can no longer source from within the country. So I see stores of shiny metals as having value only in a a pre-industrial trading regime. But that is beyond the American consumer. We stuck at the end of a complex global industrial supply chain where "work" is mostly non-productive . . . paper-pushing, phone-yapping, keyboard-banging business that produces very little . . . but finished toys for of the consumer/import economy. When that stops there is mass chaos and all the gold in the world makes little difference.

Given that: the SRSrocco Report article is right on. Tight shale is a one-time typical oil industry bubble. In spite of rockdoc arm-waving and punditry, there remains no serious attempt anywhere in the world to duplicate the American shale miracle. That depended on clueless investors, a wealthy auto-dependent populace and an pre-existing oil infrastructure (including roads, access to water and existing transport systems) that does not exist anywhere else in the world.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Jul 2018, 17:49:10
by Plantagenet
OPEC predicts global oil demand will rise to over 100 million bbls per day in 2019.


OPEC's oil production is already being raised to meet 2018 demand, as KSA tries to reach a new all time high in oil production in response to rising global oil prices and Trump's resultant demand that they pump more.

But that raises a question...if KSA and OPEC are already maxing themselves out to meet the increases in 2018 demand, where will the extra oil come from to meet the rising demand in 2019?

Easy, says, OPEC.. The countries outside OPEC will all increase their production in 2019 by 2.1 million bbls/day. And that means the US, because thats where oil production is increasing. And that means the Permian basin because thats the only place in the US where oil production is rapidly rising.

Can the Permian basin oil production go up another ca. 2 million bbls day in 2019?

And how about in 2020? How much more can Permain basin oil production go up? Inquiring minds want to know.....


Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Jul 2018, 20:00:30
by pstarr
OPEC has peaked. If you can stomach the truth, go peakoilbarreldotcom. I've asked the same simple question there over several months. This time it generated a bit of discussion, rather than the usual brush off.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Fri 13 Jul 2018, 12:59:10
by tita
On the DPR page of EIA, there is a note that wasn't there before:

Productivity estimates may overstate actual production which could be limited by logistical constraints.

I think they refer to the lack of pipeline capacity in the Permian. Obviously, there won't be much growth possible in the Permian until this is resolved, in a year. ... lines.html

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 15 Aug 2018, 18:37:36
by pstarr
The International Energy Agency said a few weeks ago that 2018 was shaping up to be a turning point. “Higher prices and operational improvements are putting the US shale sector on track to achieve positive free cash flow in 2018 for the first time ever,” the IEA said.

But as usual, the politicized paper pushers got it wrong.

WSJ, August 12 2018; Frackers Burn Cash to Sustain U.S. Oil Boom
Two-thirds of U.S. oil producers failed to live within their means in the second quarter, even as oil rose above $70 a barrel. Collectively, 50 major U.S. oil companies reported in their second-quarter results that they have spent $2 billion more than they took in, according to an analysis of free cash flow by FactSet.

The days of rapid efficiency improvements appear to be waning industry-wide. Producers during the downturn figured out how to produce more from each well for less money. Since 2016, however, the oil price at which operators can turn a profit drilling a new shale well has flatlined in some parts of the Permian and increased by an average of 17% in others, according to data from Rystad Energy.

Shale Profits Remain Elusive; Nick Cunningham at Oilprice, Aug 15, 2018
"In short, the cost inflation that many in the shale industry had hoped to keep at bay is only getting started" said Nick Cunningham, at The money hemorrhaging will only get worse.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Tue 21 Aug 2018, 20:55:18
by copious.abundance
To demonstrate how completely dead this forum (and by extension, peak oil itself) is, pstarr's post above from an entire week ago 8O is the most recent post in this entire section ... which used to be the bread and butter section of this forum! :? And if that wasn't bad enough, looking through the front page of this forum, this post of mine right here is the only post in this entire forum today! 8O