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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Tue 15 May 2018, 21:12:57
by ralfy
Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Given that, the best-case scenario will involve every society returning to basic needs until the global population levels off. That's best-case because it assumes that the effects of environmental damage plus global warming will be minimized, that the global population won't rise further, that everyone (that means including the rich) will easily agree to much simpler lives (e.g., no more Internet, cars, etc.), that all military forces will stand down, etc.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 16 May 2018, 12:14:39
by Outcast_Searcher
ralfy wrote:Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Sure. However, looking at oil prices since the early 70's, global oil supply and demand differentials clearly have a MUCH higher impact on the price of oil than relative costs of extraction.

When it's relatively scarce, for whatever reason, the masses pay much higher prices to obtain it -- perhaps whining a lot, but still paying it. In economics terms, that's called highly inelastic demand.

And now that access to truly high mileage, efficient vehicles is becoming more common, I guess we'll get to see how much the relative cost/efficiency really matters.

Clearly in the US, where giant trucks and SUV's continue to be in very high demand and efficient HEV's and PHEV's and tiny high mileage ICE's not so much (Ford stopping production of almost all sedans as a recent example), despite all the claims around here to the contrary, gasoline prices aren't at the forefront of peoples' minds, or we'd be seeing a strong push in the other direction.

People do better re efficiency in Europe. Of course, they have meaningful fuel taxes, and we can't do THAT in the US, as someone might not get elected. :roll:

And in the third world where lots of truly poor people live, there is a lot more biking, walking, using scooters, using buses, etc. already. The people buying cars are generally within the middle class (or above) sphere of wealth.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Fri 18 May 2018, 20:50:45
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ralfy wrote:Objects don't care where oil comes from for obvious reasons, but those who pay do. That's because the deeper or dirtier the oil, the more processing needed, and that means higher costs. If costs are too high, then some goods and services are sacrificed for those that are needed more, and that affects economies that require increasing sales of goods and services.

Sure. However, looking at oil prices since the early 70's, global oil supply and demand differentials clearly have a MUCH higher impact on the price of oil than relative costs of extraction.

When it's relatively scarce, for whatever reason, the masses pay much higher prices to obtain it -- perhaps whining a lot, but still paying it. In economics terms, that's called highly inelastic demand.

And now that access to truly high mileage, efficient vehicles is becoming more common, I guess we'll get to see how much the relative cost/efficiency really matters.

Clearly in the US, where giant trucks and SUV's continue to be in very high demand and efficient HEV's and PHEV's and tiny high mileage ICE's not so much (Ford stopping production of almost all sedans as a recent example), despite all the claims around here to the contrary, gasoline prices aren't at the forefront of peoples' minds, or we'd be seeing a strong push in the other direction.

People do better re efficiency in Europe. Of course, they have meaningful fuel taxes, and we can't do THAT in the US, as someone might not get elected. :roll:

And in the third world where lots of truly poor people live, there is a lot more biking, walking, using scooters, using buses, etc. already. The people buying cars are generally within the middle class (or above) sphere of wealth.


A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
?

Have you seen the retail apocalypse, the homeless camps?
Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

Don't think that a few 100$ more in gas can't put a strain on their way of life(keep in mind if a couple has two gas guzzlers, the gas cost can be significant if even 1000$ is too much for them). And this is seen by reduced economic activity, cutting expenses here and there.

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Sun 20 May 2018, 19:27:25
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
...

Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

And for how many decades has this basic state of affairs (many, if not most Americans don't bother to save any where near enough money to have good control over their financial life)?

Certainly since before the 70's, which is as long as I've been paying attention. So why is now suddenly different?

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.

Ah, yes. If fast crash doomers' predictions are wrong, then it must be "crooked numbers", since zerohedge nonsense doesn't reflect factual reality. When that's what you have to resort to, its obvious you're desperate.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Sun 20 May 2018, 19:48:28
by pstarr
Darian S wrote:A large chunk of america is one check away, medical emergency, etc away from being unable to make ends meet.
?

Have you seen the retail apocalypse, the homeless camps?
Just 39% of Americans say they have enough savings to cover a $1,000 emergency room visit or car repair.-marketwatch

Don't think that a few 100$ more in gas can't put a strain on their way of life(keep in mind if a couple has two gas guzzlers, the gas cost can be significant if even 1000$ is too much for them). And this is seen by reduced economic activity, cutting expenses here and there.

Cooked numbers can't hide reality.

Crude oil went from $30 in 2004 and stayed (on average) $100/ for 7 years. During that time the average American lost $2,000 per year in excess gasoline costs. Price per gallon went from $1.50 to $3.50

And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 May 2018, 00:18:16
by asg70
pstarr wrote:And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.


"most Americans"? Could you possibly sling any more vague generalizations around?

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Mon 21 May 2018, 02:41:37
by Outcast_Searcher
asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:And these wealthy cornies don't see a problem with that. They can't imagine (living in their guilded suburban cages) how most Americans live . . . . and how gasoline is a make or break commodity for the rest of us.


"most Americans"? Could you possibly sling any more vague generalizations around?

Given that the median household income is over $59,000 (as of 2016), the idea he keeps pushing that most Americans are in relative poverty, is absurd.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-censu ... ome-2017-9

Just like his frequently repeating that most Americans are having problems affording gasoline.

People in third world countries making under $10 a day, sure. But that isn't most Americans. That isn't even remotely Americans making minimum wage.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:04:10
by Darian S
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian


We've all heard of the worker in the 50s with his 8 kid family and stay at home wife, who lived comfortably. Now thanks to women entering the workforce en masse both must work for a total measly 50~k median, while a large part of that is diverted to additional transportation costs and daycare. Ridiculous.

edit
Half of the working adults in the USA make 30k or less, 40% of that number are closer to 20k, and 70% are under 50k. If one takes the time to look at a population density map, and a cost of living calculator, it's easy to see that these wages don't buy a reasonable quality of life in these places.-reddit sourced from ssa.gov


Marriage is down amongst the youth. Of course married household's can easily manage 50~k median.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:08:25
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.

Over the decades I've tried to help quite a few families with "financial problems".

At the end of the day, 100% of those families didn't have an income problem over time. They had a "lack of self control, re spending all they could earn and borrow, consistently" problem.

Help, whether in terms of money, coaching, etc. didn't matter -- the money all got rapidly spent (within a month), and the habits didn't change. In 100% of the cases, unfortunately.

And I've seen this behavior shown in various documentaries by left leaning entities like PBS. And no matter what, the recommendations from the left leaning entities are always to give more money to the "poor" people.

The system should at least TRY to mitigate this with mandatory financial education (basic budgeting, saving, planning skills -- i.e. what we used to call "Home Economics") in public school. But that never seems to be a priority.

So again, let's not pretend that somehow this is a problem caused by the current economy.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:14:51
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.


IT is something new, when a single bachelor grad could have a stay at home wife, 6-8 kids well provided for, and life comfortably a few decades back. That's quite impossible now even with a couple of Ph.d grads both working.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:21:45
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.


IT is something new, when a single bachelor grad could have a stay at home wife, 6-8 kids well provided for, and life comfortably a few decades back. That's quite impossible now even with a couple of Ph.d grads both working.

1). Cite credible statistics to prove that.

2). Be specific with your scenario. What salary level? What jobs? Where do they live and under what conditions? Define comfortably.

Romantically making empty claims about how life was so perfect in past decades doesn't mean that squares with reality.

I grew up in the 60's and 70's in a middle class neighborhood mostly comprised of Catholics who tended to have 4 to 13 kids.

I saw the way such folks lived, even with good jobs at solid companies like IBM and Trane and Square D. Your assumptions don't square with economic reality -- even in a modest sized city with lots of good jobs 4 or 5 decades ago.

Folks with one earner households and lots of kids got by. But it doesn't mean they lived a lot better than they did today. Today the standards/expectations are also different. Larger houses, more cars, much fancier cars, and on and on. Comparing apples and oranges doesn't tell us anything objective.

If you want some actual data, try reading "Myths of Rich and Poor" where a couple of economists actually gather a lot of data and try to look at comparing living conditions from "then" and more recently, somewhat objectively.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:25:02
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.

Over the decades I've tried to help quite a few families with "financial problems".

At the end of the day, 100% of those families didn't have an income problem over time. They had a "lack of self control, re spending all they could earn and borrow, consistently" problem.

Help, whether in terms of money, coaching, etc. didn't matter -- the money all got rapidly spent (within a month), and the habits didn't change. In 100% of the cases, unfortunately.

And I've seen this in various documentaries by left leaning entities like PBS. And no matter what, the recommendations from the left leaning entities are always to give more money to the "poor" people.
.



Not sure how the poor can save when part of the aid they receive such as food stamps may be conditioned on them having little to no savings.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:28:40
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:1). Cite credible statistics to prove that.

2). Be specific with your scenario. What salary level? What jobs? Where do they live and under what conditions. Define comfortably.

Romantically making empty claims about how life was so perfect in past decades doesn't mean that squares with reality.

I grew up in the 60's and 70's in a middle class neighborhood mostly comprised of Catholics who tended to have 4 to 13 kids.

I saw the way such folks lived, even with good jobs at solid companies like IBM and Trane and Square D. Your assumptions don't square with economic reality -- even is a modest sized city with lots of good jobs 4 or 5 decades ago.

Reality is prior to women entering the workforce en masse, most of the married working population could afford a stay at home wife. It is also the case that when there was population growth, the society could also afford above replacement number of children for most of these couples. College education was also rare, so even with just a highschool diploma this was possible.

While a refrigerator or tv may seem like a small thing. When such are manufactured in a less automated way probably with lots of manual input, it becomes as expensive as lots of devices that are produced cheaply through highly automated machinery and a few slave workers in third world countries.

edit
A 65 inch tv just a few years back would have cost a pretty penny, right now you can get one for like 500-600$. Bigger and better, becomes cheaper with better highly automated manufacturing, it has nothing to do with comparable costs.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:32:56
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:
Four in 10 Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed finds-theguardian

A high percentage of Americans have been terrible savers and lived paycheck to paycheck since good statistics have been kept. Let's not pretend this is anything new.

Over the decades I've tried to help quite a few families with "financial problems".

At the end of the day, 100% of those families didn't have an income problem over time. They had a "lack of self control, re spending all they could earn and borrow, consistently" problem.

Help, whether in terms of money, coaching, etc. didn't matter -- the money all got rapidly spent (within a month), and the habits didn't change. In 100% of the cases, unfortunately.

And I've seen this in various documentaries by left leaning entities like PBS. And no matter what, the recommendations from the left leaning entities are always to give more money to the "poor" people.
.



Not sure how the poor can save when part of the aid they receive such as food stamps may be conditioned on them having little to no savings.

In the situations I repeatedly witnessed, saving the money would have worked. Vs. doing things like:

1). Quit going to work as long as there's money for food.
2). Spending the money on booze and cigarettes and lottery tickets and similar incidentals.
3). Not buying a more expensive car when the other one runs fine.
4). Not refusing to open a bank account and earn some interest and have a place to safely save, since they "might need the money".
5). Not use any extra money to eat out, which is far more expensive.
6). Not refuse to shop around for things like car insurance, to try and save some money.

Everyone who is called "poor" in the US isn't on food stamps. How about the tens of millions of people in low wage jobs? Let's not pretend none of those people has access to any money.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:38:27
by Outcast_Searcher
Darian S wrote:Reality is prior to women entering the workforce en masse, most of the married working population could afford a stay at home wife. It is also the case that when there was population growth, the society could also afford above replacement number of children for most of these couples. College education was also rare, so even with just a highschool diploma this was possible.

Yes, the world has changed. I pointed that out. Again, "Myths of Rich and Poor" points out that there are a lot of positive aspects to that which can be dirt cheap as well.

Much of the push to have women enter the workforce en masse is a lifestyle decision. Now you're not talking poverty, but the desire to move up and have more things, a bigger house, etc.

I have friends who are still working who chose to have the wife stay at home, which can result in a LOT of savings on child care, transportation, clothes, and on and on.

Again, you're talking apples vs. oranges, not poverty. Choosing not to have a stay at home mom is different than can't "afford" to have a stay at home mom.

But this kind of "analysis" lets doomers conclude everything is awful and collapse is therefore inevitable any time now. I get it.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:39:52
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:

In the situations I repeatedly witnessed, saving the money would have worked. Vs. doing things like:

1). Quit going to work as long as there's money for food.
2). Spending the money on booze and cigarettes and lottery tickets and similar incidentals.
3). Not buying a more expensive car when the other one runs fine.
4). Not refusing to open a bank account and earn some interest and have a place to safely save, since they "might need the money".
5). Not use any extra money to eat out, which is far more expensive.
6). Not refuse to shop around for things like car insurance, to try and save some money.

Everyone who is called "poor" in the US isn't on food stamps. How about the tens of millions of people in low wage jobs? Let's not pretend none of those people has access to any money.

I hear walmart has education on how to request food stamps while working there, and they're one of the bigger employers.

Being on food stamps does not mean you don't work. In many places the wages are not living wages. And sadly society can no longer afford living wages for most.

When a man graduated from highschool could work and have his stay at home wife and half a dozen kids well provided for. Now a person may have 2-3 jobs, and still fail to make ends meet, even with two, just one or even no child. Using credit or government aid to make ends meet.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 11:42:53
by Darian S
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Darian S wrote:Reality is prior to women entering the workforce en masse, most of the married working population could afford a stay at home wife. It is also the case that when there was population growth, the society could also afford above replacement number of children for most of these couples. College education was also rare, so even with just a highschool diploma this was possible.

Yes, the world has changed. I pointed that out. Again, "Myths of Rich and Poor" points out that there are a lot of positive aspects to that which can be dirt cheap as well.

Much of the push to have women enter the workforce en masse is a lifestyle decision. Now you're not talking poverty, but the desire to move up and have more things, a bigger house, etc.

I have friends who are still working who chose to have the wife stay at home, which can result in a LOT of savings on child care, transportation, clothes, and on and on.

Again, you're talking apples vs. oranges, not poverty. Choosing not to have a stay at home mom is different than can't "afford" to have a stay at home mom.

But this kind of "analysis" lets doomers conclude everything is awful and collapse is therefore inevitable any time now. I get it.


One or two women entering does little, entering en masse, creates an excess of workers, and reduces the value of workers depressing wages. Such that eventually you have two people working full time and making about as much as just one of them working prior to such mass exodus. Then you take into account the additional transportation, child care(which results in psychological harm to children.), and you end up much worse for no reason.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 13:33:30
by Plantagenet
Darian S wrote:One or two women entering does little, entering en masse, creates an excess of workers, and reduces the value of workers depressing wages. Such that eventually you have two people working full time and making about as much as just one of them working prior to such mass exodus. Then you take into account the additional transportation, child care(which results in psychological harm to children.), and you end up much worse for no reason.


Many woman want to work for purely personal reasons---they want a career and they want money and they want the lifestyle and experiences that people get while working.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 May 2018, 15:51:47
by pstarr
It's nice to chat, to discuss both appropriate and equal representation in the work force, and personal life-style decisions. Woman are certainly underrated in the bedroom, yet not fully and equally represented in the professional sphere. tsk tsk. :cry: :x

But how about post-peak gender qualifications? Where will the modern woman fit int? I am thinking that female rock guitarists (all the rage now) will have certain advantages in the agrarian community.
Image
That axe could be a gattling gun . . . shredding the zombies. 8O 8)

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 May 2018, 01:10:53
by ralfy
It's too bad that in capitalist systems, efficiency takes place not to decrease consumption but the opposite, and that the goal of businesses is to see increasing consumption because that means more sales, and thus more profits.

It's a waste of time discussing these commonsensical points with Outcast. Use the ignore function.