That's interesting but nowhere near the volume of exports that would satisfy EU demand for imports.
125 billion cubic feet = 3.54 billion cubic meters.
The EU imports 170 billion cubic meters from Russia and Algeria. Anyone expecting some sort of secular growth in US gas exports is dreaming in technicolor. US tight gas reserves are grossly overblown:
The US doesn't have to totally replace all the gas from Russia and Algeria, all it has to do is be able to sell into the EU market at a rate which is lower than current gas spot prices in winter months. Russian gas has sold at a premium during European winters (above $10/MMbtu before 2015) and overall natural gas prices in the EU rose to $7/MMbtu in May of 2018 which is about a $4/MMbtu bonus on current US prices. If the full in price for LNG and transport can be maintained below that $4/MMbtu premium then the US should be successful at making further inroads to EU gas markets. And the EU is not the only market for US LNG or natural gas. They currently ship both natural gas and LNG into Mexico and the demand picture in MX suggests that could be increased. South Korea is also a destination. There are global limits to LNG sales based on location and capacity of re-gas facitlities but that is also changing. There is also the benefit of lower supply available in the US due to export which should see upward pressure on US natural gas prices. Suggesting there won't be an increase in US natural gas exports whether it be by pipeline into MX or Eastern Canada or by LNG shipments shows some serious misunderstanding of the reserves available and the markets.
US tight gas reserves are grossly overblown:
OH, please, quoting Bill Powers on natural gas reserves? He has no technical background in the subject matter and has made a number of predictions regarding the unconventional gas picture falling apart in the past that were completely wrong:
IN 2010 Powers said this about Texas production:
The Lone Star state is country’s largest natural gas producer by a factor of three. Despite laying claim to a portion of the Haynesville shale play and the rapidly growing Eagle Ford shale play, Texas natural gas production is coming unglued. According to the Texas Railroad Commission, natural gas production in Texas dropped 13.45% (over 3 billion cubic feet per day) between January 2009 and January 2010 and preliminary data on more recent months indicates production declines have continued. The study that I have done indicates that production from the country’s largest producer will continue to drop for at least the next two years. As goes Texas production, so goes North American production (production from the State is 50% larger than production from all of Canada).
As it turns out he was completely wrong….from 2010 to 2012 total gas production in TX increased by 9%, but that was at the same time unassociated gas from conventional plays decreased by 15% and associated gas production from conventional oil plays remained more or less the same, meaning production of gas from unconventional sources increased by 28% in the 2 year period where Powers predicted it would fall apart.
In October of 2009 Powers said:
“As an aside, in December 2007, I was at an industry conference in a very snowy Pittsburgh where I listened to a representative of Range Resources discuss how his company was fully committed to the Marcellus and was putting the full resources of the company into its development. Given all of the company’s efforts and money put into the Marcellus and their continuous promotion of the play, I find it very odd that Range Resources has not been able to achieve more than 80 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) of production two years later. Therefore, based on the slow ramp up of production from the Marcellus, I expect the play to be producing approximately 500 mmcf/d in June 2011.”
And in actual fact what happened was that by June 2011 the Marcellus was producing at 4703 Mmcf/d or nine times what Powers predicted, and Range Resources who Powers mocks in his article was up at 1000 Mmcf/d by 2014.
In January of 2010 Powers stated:
“I came to the conclusion that we are headed for a severe supply deficit after I examined the production profiles of the major conventional and unconventional fields in the US and Canada. By June of 2011, only 19 months from now, we are on pace to suffer a reduction in US gas supply of approximately 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) – approximately 13% of US supply.”
But rather than a reduction in supply of 13% production was actually up by 8% in June of 2011, which means Powers prediction was not only in the wrong direction but off by 21%
It is no wonder he hangs out with Art Berman another one of the "it is all going to fall apart....please buy my newsletter" crowd. At least Berman has some technical background, although he never seems to use it in a critical manner.