Peak Oil News and Message Boards

kublikhan wrote:

ralfy wrote:

kublikhan wrote:Oil prices change quickly in response to supply/demand balances(or perceived future balances).Demand does not respond quickly to price changes.

So much for Econ 101?

Price elasticity is a basic concept of econ 101:
Econ 101: Principles of Microeconomics Chapter 6: Elasticity

Price elasticity is a concept known for measuring the responsiveness of demand and supply quantities to the changes in price.

Economics 101

ralfy wrote:Why VMT and car sales in the U.S.?

Why not look at global oil production and consumption?

Good point. And global oil production/consumption is still rising:
Total Petroleum Consumption - World

So, consumption and supply kept rising even though prices soared and dropped.

ralfy wrote:Why VMT and car sales in the U.S.?

Why not look at global oil production and consumption?

Why not learn some basic economic theory and answer the question yourself? This isn't LATOC, so thinking for oneself is actually allowed. Try it, you might like it.

pstarr wrote:

AdamB wrote:So were bell shaped curves..until they became the punchline to a joke.

ring a ding ding . . . you are wrong.

Cherry picking old information again pstarr? You can't use that graph nowadays because guess what, it proves that those countries aren't required to be post peak because there is the US...BEFORE it peaked again.

Do you have an estimate of how many of those countries can peak again just like the US? All of them perhaps?

Excuse me Adam, you must be talking about potential Venezuelas. Much good their vast reserves are doing them now Adam uh?

onlooker wrote:Excuse me Adam, you must be talking about potential Venezuelas.

Potential Venezuelas? There is A Venezuela, is some part of the world preparing to call itself Venezuela as well, and compete against the original or something?

onlooker wrote: Much good their vast reserves are doing them now Adam uh?

Geopolitical and economic factors are another one of those important items ignored by all decline, all the time folks. And there is a name for what is happening in Venezuela, it has been around for decades, it is called the resource curse. Look it up, its in wiki. Just another one of those things that someone must be familiar with, when dealing with resource extraction issues and the economics of them.

To add on to the Lookers comment: "Do you have an estimate of how many of those countries can peak again just like the US? All of them perhaps?"

Those countries showed no reversal of their trends after years of historically high oil prices combined with significant refinement of extraction technology. So what would you envision as future conditions that would bring about such changes?

Geopolitical and economic factors are another one of those important items ignored by all decline, all the time folks---
And that is the point Adam, we talking about the real world and real world factors. Not everyone is the US or will ever be.

ROCKMAN wrote:Those countries showed no reversal of their trends after years of historically high oil prices combined with significant refinement of extraction technology. So what would you envision as future conditions that would bring about such changes?

The reason that oil production has risen so quickly in the US is unconventional oil production from tight oil shales.

It is possible that significant oil reserves will be found and developed in tight oil shales in other countries. For instance, Argentina is already developing shale oil production. If successful, this will reverse the trend of falling oil production in Argentina just as has happened in the USA.

argentina-shale

Cheers!

pstarr wrote:-- tight-shale oil production is conventional

Thats not true. Tight oil shale is considered unconventional oil.

pstarr wrote:-- tight-shales resources were found in Argentina decades ago, are not likely to be converted into reserves

-- Argentina is not developing said resources. They are mapping them.

Thats not true. Read the link in my post above.

pstarr wrote:-- oil production in the US continues to drop, long past its decades-old peak

Thats not true. Look at the data.

--------------------

Wow Peter. You've finally done it! You've made an entire post filled with nothing but inaccurate statements. Congrats! I' awarding you four pinocchios on that one!


Cheers!

ROCKMAN wrote:To add on to the Lookers comment: "Do you have an estimate of how many of those countries can peak again just like the US? All of them perhaps?"

Those countries showed no reversal of their trends after years of historically high oil prices combined with significant refinement of extraction technology. So what would you envision as future conditions that would bring about such changes?

Application of US drilling and completion technologies in a market based system unburdened by the government take policies so common in developing discrete reservoirs around the world. Have you ever seen the kind of per barrel oil takes in even what might be considered a better country to develop in, like Australia? It is crazy, no one is going to mimic the US model with that kind of OpX burden unless prices hit another high, and the problem with even that idea is that the capital will go into the known but not yet producing developments first, oil companies don't want to be on the hook for US style infrastructure availability in some other country. Brazil appears to be coming to this realization as of late, with some of their local manufacturing requirements going by the wayside for international partners.

pstarr wrote:But that is not issue: Venezuala's super heavy cost $24 to produce but has a market price of $18. Do you see the problem?

Economic variables aren't a problem, they are just economic variables. The same inequality was proclaimed by Art Berman back in 2009, and when the economic variables changed, the new resource abundance exploded over first the US market, and then the globe.

No one who analyzes upstream issues can ever ignore Venezuela.

onlooker wrote:Geopolitical and economic factors are another one of those important items ignored by all decline, all the time folks---
And that is the point Adam, we talking about the real world and real world factors. Not everyone is the US or will ever be.

True. So in a round about way you are saying that might even be better than us, with larger resource bases, and more capable of reversing their production same as we did, only faster and easier because we've already prototyped the methods. Not being like the US cuts both ways.

Plantagenet wrote:

pstarr wrote:-- oil production in the US continues to drop, long past its decades-old peak

Thats not true. Look at the data.

He's got his head too stuck in the sand to dare look.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude ... production

Really, almost the entire discussion of this site is revolving around playing whack-a-mole with someone who is living in his own reality-distortion-field (PStarr) and his yes-man (Onlooker).

Can we finally just boot both of these guys and be done with it?

AdamB wrote:

onlooker wrote:Geopolitical and economic factors are another one of those important items ignored by all decline, all the time folks---
And that is the point Adam, we talking about the real world and real world factors. Not everyone is the US or will ever be.

True. So in a round about way you are saying that might even be better than us, with larger resource bases, and more capable of reversing their production same as we did, only faster and easier because we've already prototyped the methods. Not being like the US cuts both ways.

Ha, I see must be project for a new Yemen century or something like that. Are you not seeing that many of these countries are subsumed in poverty without much physical assets at all and very overpopulated at a time now when resource shortages of all kinds are bearing in. Many of them will be lucky to be alive 20-30 years from now. You can't have much of an economy without people. Real world economic factors as for Geopolitical well that is why the major powers are in the ME.They mapped already the entire planet where the really exploitable reserves are, yep ME. Real world Adam. Those others places are NOT worth the investment. Fusion theoretically possible in reality nothing. That is the difference in the thinking of realists who see these things and hopelessly optimistic techno-utopians who do not

asg70 wrote:Really, almost the entire discussion of this site is revolving around playing whack-a-mole with someone who is living in his own reality-distortion-field (PStarr) and his yes-man (Onlooker).

Can we finally just boot both of these guys and be done with it?

Don't forget to put rockdoc in the list of people in their own reality-distortion field---he's swallowed the "climate-change-denier pill" and is now lost to reason. Personally I like onlooker a lot. He's a pretty thoughtful guy who makes good posts. Peter is just.....Peter. Sometimes he's funny, both intentionally and inadvertently.

But, in spite of the truth of what you are saying and the validity of your complaint the answer on banning is probably no. The general policy of this site is allow free speech---even to Etp advocates and climate change deniers. The mods will boot people who violate the Code of Conduct, which you can find in the background info for this site. Basically limit personal attacks, watch the swearing and don't make violent threats or post sale promotions.

If anyone gets on your nerves too much, you can put them on "ignore" which means you won't see their posts but they will still see yours.

You make useful, informative posts, asg70. Hope you'll stick around.

Cheers!

-- tight-shales resources were found in Argentina decades ago, are not likely to be converted into reserves

-- Argentina is not developing said resources. They are mapping them.

It is interesting that no matter how many times you are told this view is completely false you can’t get your mind around the difference between the real world and your fantasy world.

From Oil and Gas journal May 4

Wood Mackenzie Ltd. forecast that production from the seven most advanced developments in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play—covering only 8% of play acreage—will reach 77,000 boe/d during 2017 and 113,000 by 2018, which would double 2016 levels.
Elena Nikolova, WoodMac Latin America upstream oil and gas research analyst, said production could peak at 1.25 million boe/d by 2031.
Companies having natural gas acreage are exposed to the greatest upside by capitalizing on gas price incentives and attractive well performance, Nikolova said. While still in early development, Vaca Muerta production for some wells already is on par with certain US shale plays.
Nikolova believes labor union and price agreements finalized with the Argentina government earlier in the year have provided enough flexibility and pricing predictability to encourage operators to commit to new pilots.
Nearly 100 Vaca Muerta wells were completed through October 2016 of which 80% were horizontal. WoodMac expects future development will involve horizontal wells with laterals up to 2,500 m.
“Cost reductions are a key focus for operators,” Nikovova said, adding WoodMac’s type curves heavily reflect cost achievements reported by YPF SA.
“YPF has significantly brought down costs to $8.2 million in the fourth quarter 2016.” She expects more operators will enter Vaca Muerta.

"Personally I like onlooker a lot. He's a pretty thoughtful guy who makes good posts." I agree. And
as far as pstarr: I'm glad he's around and does such a good job of playing the "energizer" mole: he takes a beating but keeps on ticking. Always handy to have a foil to play against.

With the "ignore" options I'm not sure why banning is ever discussed. I've don't put folks on ignore...I just ignore them. Unless they say something so easily PROVED silly. Then I have fun. LOL