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Posted: **Sun 11 Dec 2016, 08:31:04**

onlooker wrote:Yes, this period is unlike any prior, it is without precedence. Just consider the following. We have a world civilization who is living totally dependent on unsustainable practices in the air, water, food and soil. Consider the enormous size of our world population and how day after day it is degrading the state of the planet as a whole. Consider, how many of our natural bounty is being depleted ie. water aquifers, minerals, oil, phosphorous etc. Some of these are non renewable resources on a time frame that would involve humanity. Then on top of all that, we have AGW. Perhaps we could reboot and rebuild after the effects of peak oil and other consequences including the downfall of our civilization and mass die off. However, given that now AGW seems to be at the nascent stages of runaway, it just seems to much to withstand for any higher organisms including ourselves.

This is the mistake the Doomers continually make. Heck I have bought into it from time to time myself and I am about as moderate on the future as you will find around these parts. The more complex a system the more dedicated work it takes to keep the system functioning at full capacity. That doesn't mean if something runs short, like energy, the system instantly collapses into chaos and nothingness. Parts of the system are shut down to keep more vital parts working. In current American culture that would mean food production and haulage continue while some hairdressers and barbers lose their jobs. The local golf pro and golf course cease to function, but the really swanky ones where the uber rich and pro's play keep functioning. The local pet food store closes shop, but the local grocery store stays open and they have some generic dog and cat food for our pets, just not the fancy stuff.

The assumption that the climate flipping over into hothouse state will cause extinction of everything is just an assumption based on doomer wish fulfillment.

Posted: **Sun 11 Dec 2016, 11:21:50**

So looking at the definitions of the words, the operative description is
Society = "ordered"
civilization = "advanced"

So by those definitions didn't USSR collapse? It became less ordered as various janitors sold suitcase nukes to N Korea and it became less advanced as GDP (read: oil production) crashed.

At the time I'm sure those with the levers figured it was armageddon, no matter what they did, oil production and cash income fell.

But in the mid-1980s, Soviet oil production topped off at 12 million barrels a day due to poor management, old technology and lack of investment. And then oil production started to drop. As oil fields ran dry, the authorities spent more cash to coax more petroleum from aging reservoirs with massive water flooding programs.

But these technological fixes didn't put much of a dent in the nation's oil depletion rates.

"However, once scarcity increased substantially, the communist system saw declining oil production which in turn could have caused their inefficient economic system to finally decline... They experienced peak oil in the system they had and they collapsed."

A good read.

The USSR collapsed because their political system allowed peak oil and could not come up with a replacement.

When they reordered their politics, oil production returned. It was political peak oil — a Seneca Cliff.

More recently, had the global central banks not invented a bunch of money in 2009-11 (on top of all they had dreamed up previously that caused the bubble to begin with) in order to support oil prices and the economy generally, the world might have gone in a similar direction. There was definitely oil, just like there was in the USSR in '88, we just didn't have the tech and cash to get it.

My point is, disorder and retreat can be political events as much as environmental.

--
In some ways the US today feels eerily similar to what I imagine the USSR did at the peak. I need to read some Orlov. Strangely, we've been convinced the system isn't working just at the time it is. So we've decided to pull out all the stops to make us great again— and it seems to me we've elected the very same brand of cronies that divvied up the USSR, perhaps the selfsame individuals, who knows? I see a strong push to increase oil profits (and every other) and privatize Everything.gov from rangeland to SoSec/Medicare.
I believe that just as surely as I believed we'd go into Iraq at it's first mention post-9/11
.

Posted: **Mon 12 Dec 2016, 12:20:42**

I agree Pops. We are going to see the people who get in there divvy up what's left, and then leave the country for the next bunch of thieves. Its' been done a lot here in Maine. The liquidators come in and buy up what's left of an industry, sell off whatever they can, and then sell off the carcass. It's the late stage where it cannibalizes itself.

Posted: **Wed 06 Dec 2017, 20:03:24**

A Three Dimensional Collapse Overview Model In this post, Geoffrey Chia illustrates one of the fundamental characteristics of the "Seneca Effect", also known as "collapse," the fact that it occurs in networked systems dominated by feedback interactions. This is a qualitative interpretation of collapse that complements the more quantitative models that I report in my book "The Seneca Effect." (U.B.) A post by Geoffrey Chia The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by a group of world class scientists using the best mathematical computer modelling available at the time. It projected the future collapse of global industrial civilisation in the 21st century if humanity did not curb its population, consumption and pollution. It was pilloried by many “infinite growth on a finite planet” economists over the decades. However, updated data inputs and modern computer modelling in recent years (particularly by

The Seneca Cliff Explained as a Network Phenomenon: a Three Dimensional Collapse Overview Model

Posted: **Sat 09 Dec 2017, 18:33:56**

The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by a group of world class scientists using the best mathematical computer modelling available at the time. It projected the future collapse of global industrial civilisation in the 21st century if humanity did not curb its population, consumption and pollution. It was pilloried by many “infinite growth on a finite planet” economists over the decades.

However, updated data inputs and modern computer modelling in recent years (particularly by Dr Graham Turner of the CSIRO in 2008 and 2014) showed that we are in reality closely tracking the standard model of the LtG, with industrial collapse and mass die-off due sooner rather than later. The future is now.

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 16:07:00**

It does look like we are doing the standard run! We are right around the place where most of the lines converge!
Well we'll see, but there may not be many of us around to say "I told you so!"...

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 16:47:40**

I admit that extinction is not a foregone conclusion. However, this is not necessarily a reason to rejoice if a huge die off and a drastic descent of civilization occurs. And that I do see as probable

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 19:19:15**

onlooker wrote:I admit that extinction is not a foregone conclusion. However, this is not necessarily a reason to rejoice if a huge die off and a drastic descent of civilization occurs. And that I do see as probable

I think there are enough variations in the circumstances of different locations on the planet that decline into chaos will not be universal and significant numbers of people will manage to stay out of the fray and continue on after it is over without a loss of our accumulated knowledge.

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 19:41:12**

pstarr wrote: All will need are brains. That will be a tough nut to crack post-peak though. Finding intelligent life in the United States

Don't you count yourself as a positive input to that equation?

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 20:12:35**

I don't know why, but I'm suddenly reminded of this satirical ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xUYbI64QHI

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 20:37:16**

pstarr wrote:The United States is rather well off, and will probably . . . ok possibly . . . be okay post peak. We have plenty of our own oil/NG/coal, other minerals, forests, fresh water and arable land.

OK, PStarr's officially a corny.

/end thread

Posted: **Mon 11 Dec 2017, 21:37:29**

pstarr wrote:The United States is rather well off, and will probably . . . ok possibly . . . be okay post peak.

You have claimed that peak oil happened a decade ago. So yes, apparently we are okay post peak. Well, folks like you that guzzle liquid fuels as though there is no tomorrow anyway, some of us have moved beyond your hedonistic and consuming ways.

Posted: **Mon 15 Jan 2018, 01:24:06**

This is a review of the German edition of "The Seneca Effect" written by Jantie Hannover for the site of the radio station "Deutschelandfunk." Very well done by someone who really read the book. Here I report a translation made mainly using "Google Translate," and also some intervention on my part. Not a very good English, but at least understandable (U.B.) Collapsing SystemsWhat empires and avalanches have in common The Italian chemistry professor Ugo Bardi has written a book about the Seneca effect. He refers to the abrupt collapse of systems: observed in avalanches and balloons, but also in financial market bubbles and powerful empires. By Jantje Hannover When a balloon bursts or an avalanche takes place, it is a network structure that suddenly reorganizes. (image stock & people / Michael Nolan and Oekom Verlag) Net, nodes, and collapses "It would be a

The Seneca Effect: a Book Review by Jantje Hannover

Posted: **Mon 15 Jan 2018, 19:15:26**

http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

Posted: **Tue 16 Jan 2018, 00:02:17**

onlooker wrote:http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

Darned if I know. But why would anyone take the word of someone who has already predicted the basics of its demise and gotten it wrong? You figure that kick the can is a reasonable substitute for getting it wrong, sort of the broken clock game?

Posted: **Tue 16 Jan 2018, 10:59:05**

onlooker wrote:http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

A very interesting scientific paper. The Ehrlichs have updated their long held concerns about overpopulation by including environtal problems caused by global warming.

The idea that changing climate will affect agricultural productivity in the future is clearly true———its the magnitude of the effect that isn’t clear yet

Cheers!

Posted: **Tue 16 Jan 2018, 11:29:48**

Plantagenet wrote:
onlooker wrote:http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

A very interesting scientific paper. The Ehrlichs have updated their long held concerns about overpopulation by including environtal problems caused by global warming.

The idea that changing climate will affect agricultural productivity in the future is clearly true———its the magnitude of the effect that isn’t clear yet

Cheers!

Indeed, there have even been proposals for adding Cacti genes to food crops to allow them to maintain function in the Tropics as the temperatures creep upward. Given the GMO hysteria that is a hard sell right now, but in the back ground you can presume that all the big GMO developers are playing around with the technology. If they succeed then it drives a pretty big stake in the 'we will all starve' meme you can see so often.

Posted: **Tue 16 Jan 2018, 11:34:27**

Tanada wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
onlooker wrote:http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?

A very interesting scientific paper. The Ehrlichs have updated their long held concerns about overpopulation by including environtal problems caused by global warming.

The idea that changing climate will affect agricultural productivity in the future is clearly true———its the magnitude of the effect that isn’t clear yet

Cheers!

Indeed, there have even been proposals for adding Cacti genes to food crops to allow them to maintain function in the Tropics as the temperatures creep upward. Given the GMO hysteria that is a hard sell right now, but in the back ground you can presume that all the big GMO developers are playing around with the technology. If they succeed then it drives a pretty big stake in the 'we will all starve' meme you can see so often.

If Brad Pitt can grow food on Mars in the movies then perhaps we will all eat GMO cactus here on earth after AGW disrupts global agriculture.

I doubt it will happen but it’s not impossible

Cheers!

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