Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi
Posted: Sat 19 Jan 2019, 02:45:04
I guess you didn't notice technology is already causing job losses today? And has been for hundreds of years now? I am trying to say these job losses will continue into the future however your fears about robotics taking all our jobs are overblown. At the same time you seem to fail to realize that as a country moves up the development ladder their citizens want more and more higher class jobs and are less and less willing to take unskilled jobs. That is one reason immigrants are drawn to these jobs because they are less fussy about employment options and there is a vacancy in these jobs.Newfie wrote:Kub,
KJ and I are talking about the future, not the past.
Why Robots Will Not Take Over Human JobsWhen the first industrial revolution hit, factories and mass production drew workers to the cities in droves. Manufacturing put individual craftsmen out of business. Consumers could get products cheaper and faster and that was a good thing. Yes, some workers were obviously displaced. But along with the “revolution,” new jobs were created and, over time, employment reached high levels.
Fears about the new robotic revolution
Of course, technology will eliminate many jobs – it has always done so. At the same time, we cannot predict the numbers of new jobs/careers that new technology will create. One study from Gartner Research states that while 1.8 million jobs will be lost by 2020, 2.3 million new ones will be created.
Even today, there are a huge number of technology jobs that did not exist ten years ago: State-of-the-art programming, data science, web security, marketing and sales. There is no reason to believe that the need for humans to create and manage new technology will decrease.
And in developed countries, with comparative salary data readily available for various industries, far fewer people are willing to enter low-paying work force jobs that require no thinking and that do not allow people to have a decent lifestyle. Young people who graduate high school often have vocational-technical skills that allow them to enter the workforce with skills that are needed. Others opt for vocational-technical or community college programs where they learn to use the latest technology.
Humans create and humans control
The idea that technology will replace the need for creative thinking, problem-solving, leadership, teamwork and initiative is rather silly right now. The idea that humans can leverage technology to provide a better world for all of us is not silly, however. It’s fascinating. Consider this: One of the industries that have seen the greatest disruption of robotics and AI has been medicine. We now have robotic and AI tools that can perform amazingly accurate diagnoses and precise surgery. Have we lost doctors to this technology? The answer is “no.” Doctors have simply learned to leverage the new technology to provide better healthcare.
Jeff Bezos on AI:robots won’t put us all out of workBezos believes our fear of being put out of work by robots is a failure of imagination more than anything else. "I find that people, all of us, I include myself, we are so unimaginative about what future jobs are going to look like and what they are going to be," he explained.
For example, said Bezos, if a convention of farmers a century ago were to learn that "massage therapist" would be a job, they would have been incredulous. "And in fact, I was telling this story to a friend, and they said, 'Jeff, forget massage therapist, there are dog psychiatrists,'" he said. "I went and looked that up the Internet. Sure enough you can easily hire a psychiatrist for your dog."