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Pops wrote:

Newfie wrote:"Reality Distortion Field". You make that up? It's good.

Just trying to judge reality, to recognize it, can be a challange.

Naw, "Reality Distortion Field" is what they said Steve Jobs had. The 'doers' at Apple would say, "we can't", and he's say, "do it", and they were amazed that they could.

I think the more a person repeats the mantra, "I'm objective", "I'm a moderate", "I'm independent" "I'm a realist"; the more they convince themselves their "mind map" is the true picture and inevitably the less objective they become. If I'm not convinced we're all going to die except on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays, am I less in touch with reality than someone who never considers any other option?

LOL, it just dawns on me how silly it is to be arguing with you about the reality of collapse when I am the one who ran off to the hills (and will hopefully do it again).

I don't think its silly just for the reason it is not a clearly foreseeable event. If we knew then we could prepare. We don't know so we keep searching.

I think of it like the two of us sitting in the front seat of a car, very dense fog, but we have to press forward. I see something and brake....oh, nothing. You see something and holler out, maybe something? If we can see some tail lights ahead we can go with a little more confidence. But right now we are both peering out through the fog. We are sharing perceptions, knowing that either or both of us may be right, or wrong.

I don't think we are arguing over collapse. I get that we both think some sort of collapse will eventually occur. We are both seeking to know that form and timing of collapse as soon as possible.

Back to my original point, I don't think windmills are a good investment - except in special cases.

My bigger point is that most(sih) people are so far disconnected from reality as to have no idea a collapse is in the future.

There is a debate tactic, I can't remember the name, but it is where you say, "I used to believe so-and-so but after I investigated I now think differently." 10 years ago I was very doomy, not "looking forward" doomy like some folks, but "skeered enough to buy beans n bullets" doomy. And I'm not so much now.

And I'm not really sure why. Probably has some to do with telling myself a story about a homestead and now I have a different story to tell myself. But part of it has to do with the fact I can't really argue with some of the tech available now.

Back in the day I was trying to telecommute and it was pretty hard at time. But I learned to do it and over time some of my clients (not all) came around. Most of my clients now have never even seen a picture of me! The upshot of that is I use very little oil for transportation, none for work transportation. That is the same whether I'm in town or the sticks, in the sticks I didn't shop often, here I can walk to the store. Anyway you look at it that is a complete triumph of tech over PO. Obviously I use "oil" embedded in everything I consume.

But on the supply side, I've always wanted PV but just never had the money to justify it. It was at the top of the list for the homestead but to be big enough to be worthwhile I would have never have lived long enough to recoup the cost.

But crap, the cost has dropped by some large factor just the last few years while at the same time appliances have become rather more efficient. And for that matter I have become much more efficient as well. Long term I've tried to argue with Kub and others about sustainability of such as PV and couldn't come out on top so I've become at least agnostic on that front.

Two points.

I've been lucky that my selected "boatstead" will work as our retirement home and is mobil. And that I haven't had to face some of the decisions you did,but just by a whisker!

Second re: energy...the boat is pretty energy efficient, especially if we move to a tropical clime and don't have to run the damn heater. But I do take advantage of solar and wind power. I was abLe to buy a couple of 190 watt panels for the cost of the mounts. So far the wind generator is pretty much a bust, just doesn't produce the juice like the solar panels. That may change in a different location.

BTW, MY wife is trying to move to a phone practice and I just installed a long distance WiFi repeater on the boat. We will see how this works. I think the technology is there, the regulations may be a bigger problem.

Yeah, my farm was great and I miss it something like an old girlfriend. But with a little distance I can say there was a decision to be made at the time of whether to go with an old farm, or design from scratch. We went for the old place with lots of outbuildings and a fantastic, old-timey feel. But with my skillset, tools and small poke I should have built fresh. I spent 75% of my time, effort and moneys on rehabilitating the old house and repairing the outs — not that it was a surprise, just that it prevented me from actually working the plan. Again, I enjoyed it but let's just say I'm glad the bottom didn't come out because I wasn't as golden as I told myself and certainly not as good as I could have designed from scratch.


Wilsons is a good outfit for cell and wifi amps and such - they are now www.weboost.com/us/

Old farms, old boats, probably not a lotta difference. At least I'm getting practice with my welding skills.

http://www.thewirie.com/marine-wifi-3g-product-pro.html

Ha wanna know what's silly? ME arguing against tech, and swapping stories over welding and WiFi boosters!

Pops - I think you're following the story. I wasn't sure if you meant what it sounded like: frac'ng was something new. The only thing that's "new" is frac'ng horizontal holes in tite formations. And by new I mean what was being done in the tite and fractured Austin Chalk 20 years ago. To beat that dead horse once again: drilling the AC horizontally with initial production rates of 1,000 bopd was common 2 decades ago. The hit the AC then because it worked at oil prices then. That and there was a big learning curve developed 20 years early when it was drilled vertically and frac'd.

There's are hundreds of detailed technical links out there to confirm everything I've said. But if folks only rely on MSM headlines and the spins from Big Oil, politicians, environmentalists, etc. for their knowledge base it will be very difficult to develop a clear understanding of the POD IMHO.

Newfie wrote:Ha wanna know what's silly? ME arguing against tech, and swapping stories over welding and WiFi boosters!

I know, I have the same problem: Luddite / "Early Adopter".
But isn't the ability to hold 2 opposing ideas the sign of great intellect? Or just of a wishy washy liberal? LOL

I like tech, I just don't trust it.

Bi-polar disorder more likely!

It is funny you say technology will resolve peak oil when no technology, by itself or in any combination, will solve peak oil. To deny that peak oil will lead to the collapse of industrial civilization is about as foolish as denying the world is round. You got to be very delusional to think wishful thinking is going to prevent the population from collapsing due to peak oil. You also got to be delusional to think modern civilization is possible without oil.

DesuMaiden wrote:It is funny you say technology will resolve peak oil when no technology, by itself or in any combination, will solve peak oil. To deny that peak oil will lead to the collapse of industrial civilization is about as foolish as denying the world is round. You got to be very delusional to think wishful thinking is going to prevent the population from collapsing due to peak oil. You also got to be delusional to think modern civilization is possible without oil.

Hey Desumaiden, LTNS! Still as cheerful as ever I see! It's Spring at last, go dance in the rain and feel alive!

Newsseeker wrote:Baltimore, MD--Oil prices over the next ten years are going to alter the way our world operates. Peak oil is the reason. Oil companies may denounce peak oil as a "myth," but in a few short years they'll have nothing more to hide behind.

http://www.energyandcapital.com/article ... esting/388

Just thought we would check in, a decade later, on some standard PO claims from "the bad ol' days".

Oil prices have certainly altered the way the world operates, the US now controls the marginal barrel price through new resources that peakers never saw coming, peak oil happened and no one noticed, oil companies instead of claiming peak was a myth found so much more new oil that the price crashed, and now are going bankrupt because they found TOO much new oil, and yes....there is nothing left for peak oilers to hide behind. Except the etp anyway, and that has already been outed.