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Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

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Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 14:56:53

Should Saudi Arabia fear North Dakota? A member of the Saudi royal family says yes.

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, founder of Kingdom Holding and a multi-billionaire investor in News Corp, Time Warner and Citigroup, among other companies, has told Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi that the desert kingdom is making a mistake not to worry about burgeoning U.S. oil and gas production.

In a letter published on Twitter, the prince calls rising American shale gas production "an inevitable threat." Saudi Arabia, he warns, "is almost entirely dependent on oil, and this reality is becoming a source of concern for all."

The Saudi oil minister said in May that he wasn't worried about increased U.S. production from shale, and that OPEC had survived past increases in production from countries outside OPEC.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/saudis-fear-us-shale-oil-boom/story?id=19820719


US shale threatens Saudi funding crisis and demise of OPEC

Saudi Arabia and the Opec oil states must wean their economies off energy exports immediately or spiral into decline as America’s shale revolution shatters the world order, a top Saudi business leader has warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10209822/US-shale-threatens-Saudi-funding-crisis-and-demise-of-OPEC.html


I stopped following these issues for quite a while, in that meantime casually consuming mainstream media I keep hearing that shale is going to make us the next KSA.

What's the latest on this? Are we going to get energy independent from fracking and shale? And where does that leave peak oil, delayed? Were the cornies right?
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 15:23:12

look around the site, you can probably find some threads on this topic.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 15:35:53

Pops wrote:look around the site, you can probably find some threads on this topic.


I'll admit my eyes glaze over about the nitty gritty of oil and I'm out of my depth so I've always stayed out of those long threads and would prefer a summary.

Here's what I find interesting, that there's shale in other parts of the world not just Dakota:

Meet The Oil Shale Eighty Times Bigger Than The Bakken

But as great as the Bakken is, I learned last week about another oil shale play that dwarfs it. It’s called The Bazhenov. It’s in Western Siberia, in Russia. And while the Bakken is big, the Bazhenov — according to a report last week by Sanford Bernstein’s lead international oil analyst Oswald Clint — “covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres, which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined.” This is 80 times bigger than the Bakken.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/06/04/bakken-bazhenov-shale-oil/


So what are the implications of that? The shale boom is real, don't we have to admit that? If they can get shale oil in Russia too and around the world, what does that mean for peak oil?
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 15:40:08

Sure…the Saudis are curled up in a fetal position fearing our shales. LOL. Why not just stick with facts instead of opinions from some folks.

In 2002 the Saudis took in about $60 billion by selling 7.25 million bopd. In 2011 they took in $260 billion selling 7 million bopd. In 2012 their income jumped another $51 billion to $311 billion according to the EIA. Estimate for 2013 are running as high as $350 billion….5X as much as they made just 11 years ago.

Yep…our shale production is really hurting them. LOL. First, we don’t buy much KSA oil. Second, we may be importing less oil now but the US is still the leading oil importer on the planet. It’s estimated that for 2013 the US will spend $400 billion on imported oil. And this is with the aid of those “huge” gains from the shale we are currently enjoying.

Do any of those facts smell like “energy independence “ to you? Are you overwhelmed with an unbridled sense of optimism? LOL. Folks are free to predict whatever they want. But they can’t change the current facts. And now you have them.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 17:08:04

LOL, just giving you a ration six, I know PO ain't your thing. Here are 3 pictures:

First here is the great US tight oil bonanza, (notice that the rest of the world has been flat for 7 or 8 years)

Image


Second, here is a picture of the future of US tight oil (notice the bonanza from ND and TX seems to be about done bonanzaing, did they mention that in the MSM? LOL)

Image


Finally, here is a picture of how long different amounts of oil would take to peak at current rates of extraction. Notice how even doubling the amount estimated to be available only delays the peak 25 years.


Image

Finally, if all the tight oil estimated to be "technically" recoverable (that means regardless of cost) could be produced right now (none is being produced - anywhere - besides here right now) it would add about 5 years to peak

Reports of PO's demise have been greatly exaggerated, six, things are progressing about at the mean predicted level I'd say. No Mad Max but no Energy Fairy on a methane-free unicorn either.

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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby Pops » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 17:21:34

But hey, I don't blame you for being mislead by MSM six, take a look at this doozy

diane-sawyer-us-will-be-largest-exporter-t67702.html
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 20:04:14

Pops - You have to feel a little sorry for her. No doubt someone just handed her someone else's analysis and she naturally, and very incorrectly, assumed they had minimal math skills. LOL.

That Russian shale does cover a much larger area then the Bakken. And so? We have many shale formations in the US that cover much greater areas than the Bakken (which isn't an exactly pure fractured shale trend) or the Eagle Ford Shale. We have dozens of shale source rocks in the US and yet 80%+ of our tite oil comes from just those two formations. But companies have been trying. Shale is by far the most common sedimentary rock on in the US as well as the rest of the planet. And only a small percentage have shown the potential for commercial develop even with the advanced technology and current high prices.

But, having said that, the Russian shale may eventually turn into a viable play. Just a tad early to be talking about economically recoverable RESERVES IMHO. But does appear to be a huge potential RESOURCE. It could easily take 10 - 15 years to even begin to get a handle on it. And that would just be the exploration phase before any serious development could begin. Lots of holes will have to be punched before the sweet and sour spots can be delineated.

But that's not the biggest hindrance. The current Russian tax, royalty and ownership laws allow only a minimal amount of current interest. And apparently, as the largest oil producer on the planet, the Russian gov't doesn't appear to be anxious to change the game. But some feel the declining Russian production level will provide an eventual shift in policy.

And one last friendly reminder: PO has nothing to do with however many billions of bbls of oil the Russian (and all the other shales combined) may contain. It's about the global flow rate of oil out of the ground. And looking thru the most glowing and optimistic reports on the Russian shale predicts at most 1 - 2 million bopd and even that will take at least 10 years and that's only after the current policies of the Russian gov't are altered. Even the Russian analysts see only the potential to replace Russian decline and not increase over production to any significant level.

And one last pitch for the POD: the increased shale production has come at a price...a very high price: $100+ per bbl of oil. The world of the Bakken, Eagle Ford et al is the world of expensive energy, economic malaise increased military tensions, etc. This world is not the cornucopians' wet dream.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 20:18:40

ROCKMAN wrote:Yep…our shale production is really hurting them. LOL. First, we don’t buy much KSA oil. Second, we may be importing less oil now but the US is still the leading oil importer on the planet.


Apparently a title we don't be holding all that much longer. <sigh> The good ol' days!

http://peakoil.com/consumption/within-f ... l-than-u-s
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 09 Sep 2013, 20:31:35

Wow, are Forbes lifting material from Brian Wang's Next Big Future blog? That excerpt sounds like a direct quote.

France has a world class shale play, too, the Paris Basin. Guess what part of the country that's in. They've come out solidly against exploiting it though as they don't want earthquakes/flammable drinking water/increased carbon footprint/who knows what else. My other case study would be the Eagle Ford, notice how you cross the Rio Grande headed south and suddenly have absolutely no shale production going on whatsoever, even though as you'd imagine geological formations don't respect national boundaries in any way? But the Canadians drill into their part of the Bakken with no restraint. If a nation's fundamentally a basket case infrastructure wise you're just not likely to see much happen. Venezuela has billions of barrels of heavy oil they could be lifting, but the country's just too screwed up to get at it. Geologically they're much the same kind of province as California.

As for Russia I posted a link to an article about Putin letting up on the reigns on their companies to drill into unconventional formations - and of course included a proviso to make sure the government gets their stake in the end anyway. Forget the gory details. So it could take a while to see oil cos dive into the tight oil business full bore. I think of what's going on in the US as a test run. It has definitely been interesting to observe. As a denizen of PADD 5 I'm not surprised that all of this frenized Saudi America 20 stage whoo ha might as well be taking place in Timbuktu for all it's done to ease my pain at the pump, too.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 10 Sep 2013, 07:01:19

Dude – Perfect timing for your post. While falling asleep last night I thought about an important aspect of the shale hype I didn’t mention when discussing the BRS (Big Russian Shale).

A bad habit of folks with a knowledge base in an area: they assume everyone else understands the obvious. Regarding Mexico and the Eagle Ford Shale: the EFS and its equivalent sections also extends eastward to Florida. And it has been tested sporadically along the entire tend. And in the immediate area of the EFS drilling boom it also extends north as well as south all the way to the coast line. Just a rough guess but the booming area of the EFS probably covers no more than 5% of the areal extent of the EFS. IOW so far only a small portion of the EFS trend has been proven to contain all the necessary elements for significant commercial development. Companies are still poking around the trend but so far no boom area as has been found like that relatively small area around San Antonio.

Which leads back to the reports of how large an area the BRS covers. And my smart ass comment: “So what?” I’ve repeated seen folks refer to “the shales” as having great potential. That’s not true and has been proven. In some rather restrictive areas some of the shale formations have commercial potential. But the vast majority of the shales even in the US have little or no commercial potential. Just consider the area where the EFS is booming: there are a dozen other shale formations that occur immediately above and below the EFS. And those shale formations measure in the many thousands of feet in thickness compared to the typical EFS section measuring at most a few hundred feet in thickness. And many of those shales have been proven to have acted as source rocks. And some of those formations have boomed in the past. Such as the Austin Chalk. In fact the horizontally drilled and frac’d AC was the hottest oil play on the planet in the 90’s and eventually covered a much larger area than the current EFS boom. But you don’t hear about much activity in the AC these days and for good reason: it has been pretty much drilled up.

Another example I can point to from first hand personal experience: I’m currently shooting 3d seismic data west of Fort Worth, Texas. Not only is the Barnett Shale present in this county but it also acts as the source rock for the formation I’m targeting with the seismic. In fact the BS, as an oil source rock, is key to my project. But I’m not having to pay thousands of $’s per acre for leases as Chesapeake did. And for good reason: the Barnett Shale is not a commercial target in this very large county. Yes…it is present. Yes…it is a great source rock for multiple formations in the area. No…the Barnett Shale is not a commercial play in this area.

It’s very easy to confuse folks when such huge geographic areas are tossed around. Likewise with huge INPLACE RESERVE numbers. But as your studies and those of many others have shown there is not a direct correlation between all the hyped numbers and actual production. Unlike men, not all shale are created equal. LOL. And again, PO isn't about millions of square miles or billions of barrels. It's about barrels of oil per day. For all the numbers tossed around about the Big Russian Shale I could not find one simple number in any of the reports I found: the number of barrels of oil per day currently being produced from the BRS. It will eventually produce what it will produce. But today, right now, how much is it contributing to our global oil production capacity?
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Sep 2013, 08:52:47

A provisio on what is being said here. Yes large parts of some of the shales aren't "commercial" but one has to remember that the nature of this play type (extreme low permeability) means that the technically recoverable hydrocarbons are largely gas. Currently due to low gas prices most if not all of the dry gas plays are uneconomic meaning that the current "sweet spots" are where there is high liquid content. At some point gas prices will rise again and then much of that currently "non-commercial" acreage will be the new sweet spot. Why is that...simply becuase the dry gas portions of the shale plays are invariably over pressured which results in high delivery rates, at $6/Mcf they are quite attractive economically.

Rockman something that you are confusing people with is talking about the Austin Chalk as if it was similar to the Eagleford or other shales. It isn't. The shale plays all are their own source and reservoir whereas the Austin Chalk has the underlying Eagleford shale as it's source rock.

As to the Mexico portion of the Eagleford Pemex has started to drill a few wells in there (mostly vertical) with some success. Of course they are limited in what they can do mainly as a result of experience and counting on Schlumberger or Halliburton to tell them how to complete the wells (neither big blue or big red will care if it is economic as they get paid in any event). The big challenge here is a lot of the activity is around Cuidad Juarez which is a pretty nasty place these days.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 10 Sep 2013, 09:52:19

doc - true doc. But I didn't say the AC was a source rock. I said it was a very low perm fractured reservoir. Which makes it very similar to the shales. So they shouldn't be too confused since the AC and the shales have similar production profiles which is the critical aspect.

So true about the NG potential of the shales. Some of the best drilling shows I've seen have come from deep high pressured shales. All we need is $10/mcf again and they'll boom again.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby westexas » Fri 13 Sep 2013, 08:09:18

Why is Saudi Arabia not a threat to fracking?

http://peakoil.com/production/why-is-sa ... fracking-2
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby misterno » Sun 22 Sep 2013, 19:24:27

ROCKMAN wrote:Sure…the Saudis are curled up in a fetal position fearing our shales. LOL. Why not just stick with facts instead of opinions from some folks.

In 2002 the Saudis took in about $60 billion by selling 7.25 million bopd. In 2011 they took in $260 billion selling 7 million bopd. In 2012 their income jumped another $51 billion to $311 billion according to the EIA. Estimate for 2013 are running as high as $350 billion….5X as much as they made just 11 years ago.

Yep…our shale production is really hurting them. LOL. First, we don’t buy much KSA oil. Second, we may be importing less oil now but the US is still the leading oil importer on the planet. It’s estimated that for 2013 the US will spend $400 billion on imported oil. And this is with the aid of those “huge” gains from the shale we are currently enjoying.

Do any of those facts smell like “energy independence “ to you? Are you overwhelmed with an unbridled sense of optimism? LOL. Folks are free to predict whatever they want. But they can’t change the current facts. And now you have them.


US is not the number 1 oil importer, it is the 2nd

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-set ... 34535.html
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 22 Sep 2013, 19:58:56

M - you should read your own link a little closer. It highlights your error:

"According to a report released this week by Wood Mackenzie, the world's second-largest economy will be the globe's largest importer of oil by volume by 2017. The shift is driven by more Chinese consumption, and a prodigious shale boom that is lessening U.S. reliance on imports."

Last time I looked at a calendar it was 2013. LOL.

"As the U.S. produces its own oil and gas, U.S. oil import volumes have declined to 4 million barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, China's have gone in the other direction, up from about a million bpd in 2004 to more than 3 million last year. " And last time I checked 4 million is more than 3 million. OTOH both number are BS. The US consumes about 18 million bopd, imports 10 million bopd and produces 8 million bopd.

I would also humbly suggest you find a better source of info than yahoo. Like this one: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=93

Yahoo is full of crap. Multiple sources besides the one I offered. Maybe some day China will be importing more oil than the US but according to Mundi the US is importing twice as much as China. The US imports as much or more oil per day than either of the two largest exporters ship. About 40 million bopd is being exported by all countries. Thus the US, according to the EIA the US alone imports about 25% of all the oil exported on the planet.

We are oil pigs. And proud of it. LOL. But back to the subject of the thread. Since the oil shale boom began in the US the Saudi revenue from oil exports has increased from $60 billion/year to over $300 billion/year today. Yep...they must be sh*ting on themselves in fear. LOL. US oil production and Saudi revenue have increased for the same reason: $100/bbl oil.
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 17:05:00

Notice that the KSA is talking about losing market share and doesn’t hint that they’ll cut prices to keep market share. As mentioned earlier if the KSA cuts their production to 9 million bopd their gross income would be around $300 billion/yr compared to $110 billion/yr they would have been making 10 years ago if they were producing 10 million bopd. IOW they could lose 50% of their current market share but if that kept prices where they are now the KSA income would still be 50% higher than it was not that long ago. And the oil they didn’t produce today would leave them that much more to produce later as the reserves of the other exporters are depleted.

From Rig Zone: Reuters - OPEC could lose almost 8 percent of its oil market share in the next five years as the shale energy boom and other competing sources boost rival supply, offering the exporter group little benefit from rising world demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been slower than some to acknowledge the impact that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is having on supply. Earlier this year, it decided to carry out its own research into shale oil. In its annual World Oil Outlook, OPEC said it expected global demand for its crude oil to average 29.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, down 1.1 million bpd from 2013, because of increasing supply outside the 12-member group. Under another, upside supply scenario, OPEC sees an even larger drop in demand for OPEC crude to 28 million bpd in 2018 - 7.6 percent less than this year and 2 million bpd below what it is currently producing. "There is no shortage of oil and resources are plentiful," OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said in the foreword to the report. "Increasing global oil demand is supported by an expanding diversity of supply sources."

OPEC, which holds 80 percent of the world's conventional oil reserves, wants prices to be around $100 a barrel, which in nominal terms is almost four times their level a decade ago. Higher prices have helped to make a wider range of supply commercially viable, including fracking, oil extraction from tar sands and conventional oil wells in more remote locations and in harder-to-tap reservoirs like ultra deep waters.
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OPEC Sees Less Demand for its Oil to 2018 Amid Shale Boom

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 17:09:08

OPEC Sees Less Demand for its Oil to 2018 Amid Shale Boom

OPEC acknowledged it underestimated the significance of the North American energy boom as it tripled estimates for shale oil produced there and predicted a decline in demand for its own crude through to 2018.

The need for crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will fall by 1.1 million barrels a day to 29.2 million barrels a day between 2013 and 2018, the Vienna-based group said today in its annual World Oil Outlook. Oil production from shale formations in the U.S. and Canada is seen climbing to 4.9 million barrels a day in 2018, compared with an estimate of 1.7 million barrels a day in last year’s report.

“The big picture is obviously surging shale production,” Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA, said in a telephone interview from New York before the release of the report.

OPEC’s analysis shows how growing oil output in North Dakota and Texas will prevent the 53-year-old group of 12 oil producers, mostly situated in the Middle East, from capitalizing on the 4.8 million barrel-a-day increase in oil demand it expects over the next five years.

The supply surge has also contributed to a decline this year in the price of oil grades on the U.S. Gulf Coast that influence the price of exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. The Gulf crude Mars Blend has fallen 12 percent this year to $93.05 a barrel yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


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Re: OPEC Sees Less Demand for its Oil to 2018 Amid Shale Boo

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 17:17:09

Mods, Please move this thread to " Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom" thread, and delete this post. Ta
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Re: OPEC Sees Less Demand for its Oil to 2018 Amid Shale Boo

Unread postby John_A » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 17:18:46

Graeme wrote:OPEC Sees Less Demand for its Oil to 2018 Amid Shale Boom

OPEC acknowledged it underestimated the significance of the North American energy boom as it tripled estimates for shale oil produced there and predicted a decline in demand for its own crude through to 2018.


Amazing. The Saudi's admit that they have not been cornie enough. The corniest of the cornies....brought low by their underestimates.

So the question is, if the corniest of cornies so severely underestimated the production from these kinds of formations, how much MORE oil can they continue to produce? Can all of these 345 BILLION barrels be turned on as quickly, swamping the world in oil?

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
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Re: Saudis Fear US Shale Oil Boom

Unread postby John_A » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 17:37:30

ROCKMAN wrote:Sure…the Saudis are curled up in a fetal position fearing our shales. LOL. Why not just stick with facts instead of opinions from some folks.


You are almost prophetic Rock....but perhaps not in the direction you'd like.

Darn right the Saudi's might be worried....if those shales keep affecting price...they have this little problem...called poor people....

Saudi Arabia...NOT CORNIE ENOUGH!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-0 ... -boom.html
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