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Plantagenet wrote:

AdamB wrote:Mexico ....has had 2, perhaps 3, prior peak oils (if memory serves). So might this new one be #3 or #4? Could be.....

What multiple peaks are you babbling about?

AdamB wrote:

Plantagenet wrote:What multiple peaks are you babbling about?

1982, 1997, 2004.

All since 1965.

spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

pstarr wrote:

spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

Mexico will never exceed its 2004 oil production peak.
I guarantee it.

pstarr wrote:

spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

Mexico will never exceed its 2004 oil production peak.

I guarantee it.

spike wrote:....many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

AdamB wrote: Did you know that Pioneer discovered resource play production in the Midland Basin? According to Plant.

Mexico shale is not in the right place. There isn't the necessary water or infrastructure to produce it. Dream on speculators.

What makes him think this is different than Vaca in Argentina or the Bowland Basin in England is beyond me.

...the Burgos basin sits right along the coast line with the Gulf of Mexico. There is no reason why sea water can't be used as a frack fluid, the salinity is similar to produced waters in TX. and if there is any incompatibility between untreated sea water and the formation then there is almost certainly a solution.

Mexico’s proven oil and gas reserves dropped again last year, after new certified discoveries—mostly by private foreign operators—were unable to keep pace with current production. According to data by Mexico’s National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), the country’s proved total oil and gas reserves were 8.484 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of January 1, 2018, which was a drop of more than 7 percent compared to the January 2017 reserves update. As of January 1, 2017, Mexico’s proved oil and gas reserves were estimated at 9.16 billion barrels of oil equivalent, down by 10.6 percent from the 10.243 billion boe as of the beginning of 2016. Proved oil reserves were down 7.9 percent to 7.037 billion barrels from 7.641 billion barrels estimated as of 2016. At the beginning of this year, oil reserves were 6.464 billion barrels, CNH data showed. The silver lining in the

Mexico’s energy industry strategy will be overhauled if the frontrunner for the next presidential term, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, wins the July election, his senior energy adviser said in an interview with Reuters.

Rocio Nahle, who is the most likely Energy Minister of the future cabinet if Obrador wins, also said that the leftist candidate is not against foreign energy investment in Mexico. Even so, the contracts signed with international oil companies by the current government will be scrupulously reviewed.

What Obrador seems to be opposed to is sending crude oil abroad. In fact, the Obrador government would try to put an end to all crude oil exports within three years of coming into office, focusing instead on refined products.

“In a three-year period, at the latest, we need to try to consume our own fuels and not depend on foreign gasoline,” Nahle said. This would be bad for U.S. refiners, who export the biggest portion of their production to Mexico. In the last few years, Reuters notes, Mexican imports of gasoline and diesel have risen to more than 800,000 bpd, representing over 66 percent of domestic demand.

This could be the reason why Obrador’s team is seeking to change the focus of the Mexican energy industry to achieve greater self-sufficiency in the fuel department. Yet exports are also a priority. Now, Pemex exports most of its crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, but also some to Asia and Europe. Last year, the average daily export rate was 1.17 million bpd.

Fuel exports would be more lucrative, Nahle says, so the likely future government of Mexico is devising plans to expand the processing capacity of Pemex’s six refineries and build one or two more, to add between 300,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd to the existing refining capacity of the country, which is 1.6 million bpd of crude.

ROCKMAN wrote:T - Yes: Mexico could expand its refinery infrastructure. All it need do is overcome whatever the resistance has been to do so that has prevented it for more then the 20+ years it was obvious it needed to do just that. IOW this wasn't just an need that wasn't known for many years. In fact, PEMEX has been complaining about the govt stripping it of such capex for a very long time. Revenue that was being used to support the country's social support. As well as a tad directed to those few families that have significant influence over the govt.

So if the govt does allow PEMEX more capex there's one big question: who will lose that revenue on the other side of the ledger? Monies lost for many years as upgrades are built before the addition of monies from reducing imports as well as exporting products show up. And yes: it would have been much easier to do when Mexico was a big NET exporter of energy.

BTW the talk is about oil. In the meantime Mexico is importing ever increasing amounts of NG from the US.