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Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Mon 06 Feb 2012, 23:36:38by mmasters
After an oil crisis of some sort has happened due to supply and demand problems?
How will the markets be shaped? Bubbles in the commodities space can cause inturruption of orders and delivery. Will we see a the commodities markets privatized in the next few years due to overinvesting in commodies interfering with industry supply and demand?
The alternative energy markets seem ripe for the unknowing public to dump money in once "peak oil" is revealed since many will believe alternative energy is the solution.
I think being in oil is obvious before TSHTF and then moving over to alternative energy at the right time is obvious as is being natural gas at a certain point. But what other plays are out there?
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 00:17:38by SeaGypsy
The longer we bump along on the plateau the more everything that happens is affected by peak oil. Everything geopolitical, every investment strategist, currency shifts, civil revolutions/ revolts/ devolution. It's on the news every day already. Then there's the mandatory feel good pieces about ECATS or floating windfarms.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 00:36:25by dolanbaker
It's a sobering thought, that the intertwining of resources trying to mitigate the affects of reduced energy supply could actually make the energy crunch worse. The strain on European Gas supplies being an example.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 01:13:36by SeaGypsy
The best that could come of it is kind of a new age of renaissance of commerce and trade. As oil becomes scarcer, it will slowly lose importance. Coal and CNG look like being the next big contenders, with Uranium probably following on the coat-tails of these for baseload generation. The renewables sector will be bringing up the rear. An interesting thing as oil fades will be the shifting powers in the world based on other resource control, not necessarily bound to a particular currency of trade. That's about as corny as you will ever get from me.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 08:18:58by sparky
the peak oil paradigm shift has been widely announced , hardly anyone plugged in the news cycle could have failed to hear about it ,
result ... a shrug of the shoulder and business as usual ,
government mitigation ..a lot of talk and a statistically nonexistent response
The ostriches are doing well
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 09:10:40by mmasters
sparky wrote:the peak oil paradigm shift has been widely announced , hardly anyone plugged in the news cycle could have failed to hear about it ,
result ... a shrug of the shoulder and business as usual ,
government mitigation ..a lot of talk and a statistically nonexistent response
The ostriches are doing well
Eventually people will catch on, we're still early in the game. My question applies to that point when the knowledge has been digested a bit further and oil prices have skyrocketed again.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 09:18:49by SeaGypsy
Again? Aside from the 08 spike, they have been 'skyrocketing'. Spike or no spike is fairly irrelevant, long term the trajectory is all one way..
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Tue 07 Feb 2012, 14:08:02by Pops
I'm not sure how long it will take to get over the "Oil Cos are holding out" - "A-Rabs are sticking us" - "Speculators are driving prices up" - "them durn Treehuggers" - blah - blah.
On the list of boogiemen and scapegoats (boogie-goats?), I guarantee "peak oil" will be dead last simply because by definition, admitting we've reached the peak necessitates change.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 11:05:30by mmasters
So you think it's just going to get brushed under the carpet for years and years to come with all kinds of wild price swings in oil and oil crises? I don't think so. I think at some point it's going to have be acknowledged "why" we've hit an oil crisis (or repeated ones) and that it's not going away because of peak oil. The problems are only going to get worse and worse with shortages and countries nationalizing their oil and so forth, a valid explanation is going to be necessary at some point.
I think we're only a few years off from the problem being publically acknowledged but the question is how will people knowing about PO in some general sense effect the marketplace? My guess is overinvesting in commodities which will lead to controls in or privation of the commodities markets and a bubble in alternative energy stocks.
Also I garner the people will be given some simplified explanation of peak oil by the oil companies and gov't that covers up the severity of the situation. Probably false hype that alternatives will yield the solution "we just have to work hard and make it work like we always have." Just like Katrina where "noboby knew the levies would fail" this time it will be "nobody knew alternative energy couldn't find an answer for us."
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 12:11:23by vtsnowedin
Looking five ten and twenty years down the backside of the curve the owners of the oil reserves that remain will be sitting on reserves that sell for hundreds of dollars per barrel delivered. Thoroughly re-drilling and fracking old depleted fields to squeeze out the last drop of onshore oil maybe the best play out there. I'd look for the company's that already have or are buying up old fields for future reworking as a growth segment. No matter how successful alternatives become crude oil for petrochemicals etc. will command top dollar.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 12:34:20by Pops
mmasters wrote:My guess is overinvesting in commodities which will lead to controls in or privation of the commodities markets and a bubble in alternative energy stocks.
Do you mean "privatization" of the markets? They are private now. Except for where they have already been nationalized.
I expect nationalization to be the end result of public awareness, which is why I think peak oil awareness to be fought tooth and nail by the capitalists.
So far they are winning.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 12:42:27by ralfy
Likely, most human beings want a middle class lifestyle, which means most will want business as usual. With that, it will not be awareness of PO but PO that will shape markets. Demand will hammer at a production ceiling that can hardly be raised, leading to continuous global recession.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 12:45:37by mmasters
Pops wrote:mmasters wrote:My guess is overinvesting in commodities which will lead to controls in or privation of the commodities markets and a bubble in alternative energy stocks.
Do you mean "privatization" of the markets? They are private now. Except for where they have already been nationalized.
I expect nationalization to be the end result of public awareness, which is why I think peak oil awareness to be fought tooth and nail by the capitalists.
So far they are winning.
Your right essentially some type of nationalization is what I was getting at which makes sense the capitalists will try and fight awareness for as long as possible.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 16:40:50by Pablo2079
I'm not sure there will ever be full recognition of "Peak Oil" by the MSM.
The news will continually be cluttered up with symptoms of peak oil. The general public will associate things like "war in Iran" for the reason gas is now $7 a gallon rather than the root cause being Peak Oil. At the same time, the economy will continue to be ravaged. All Joe public will know is that they don't have a job, can't afford groceries and their house is being foreclosed on. I don't think the majority of people will take the time to research the root cause of the economic melt down or necessarily care at that point.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 16:56:47by Unconventional Ideas
Pablo2079 is right. I think most people won't ever really care about the root cause of the meltdown, they will simply remain fixated on their own immediate issues of unemployment, food scarcity, and shelter.
I suppose it isn't really necessary for most people to understand this stuff because they operate in their own worlds and adapt as changes force them to.
It's not that they're dumb, it's that their range is intentionally, and often for good cause, limited.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 17:20:00by Pops
Here's why...
In remarks that raised some eyebrows in the audience, the nation’s top transportation official said this week that there is an “unlimited supply of oil” in parts of the world.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood made that statement Wednesday at Virginia Commonwealth University at the end of a town hall meeting attended by about 75 students, staff, and faculty members.
In the last question of the hour-long meeting, Vicente Gonzalez, a junior majoring in social justice at VCU, asked LaHood about a previous statement he made regarding future standards for automobile efficiency.
“I was wondering,” Gonzalez said, “you said that by 2025, the deal is to have 50 mile-per-gallon [vehicles]?”
“Fifty-four, yeah,” LaHood said.
“Well,” Gonzalez asked, “if we’re expected to exhaust all the world’s oil reserves within the next 25, 30-ish years, then why is gasoline being discussed in these negotiations at all?”
LaHood responded, “There’s an unlimited supply of oil in many countries around the world.”
Gonzalez questioned that, saying, “Unlimited?”
“Absolutely. Absolutely,” LaHood replied. “Now, some of these countries aren’t our friends, others are.”
As the audience chuckled, Gonzalez said, “So you’re saying the supply of gasoline will never end? That it’s unlimited?”
LaHood pointed at Gonzalez and said: “Not in your lifetime. Not in my lifetime. How else do you want me to say it? … We’re not going to run out of gas, we’re not going to run out of oil for a long, long, long time. Many countries have an unlimited supply.”
http://rvanews.com/news/transportation- ... ited/55970
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 22:21:08by sparky
Unconventional Ideas
"t's not that they're dumb, it's that their range is intentionally, and often for good cause, limited"
a perceptive coment ,and this goes to the heart of public opinion molding
as for scapegoats , the whole point is to heap the blame on an inoculous or distant figure
and deflect any blame from whoever was ,is and will be running the governance.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Wed 08 Feb 2012, 23:15:18by radon
Recognition of PO -> Perception of higher risks -> greater volatility -> wider spreads -> retail investors kicked out from the markets
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Thu 09 Feb 2012, 02:23:38by mmasters
radon wrote:Recognition of PO -> Perception of higher risks -> greater volatility -> wider spreads -> retail investors kicked out from the markets
Yeah and the more people know the more speculative investing will interfere with the economy leading us into some kind of internationally agreed upon price fixing of commodities.
Re: Public Awareness of PO - How will it shape the markets?
Posted:
Thu 09 Feb 2012, 03:18:02by SeaGypsy
Completely impossible sans forex tax. Nobody government wants a forex tax in any important country. Forex represents approximately 10 times commodity trading volume. Although absolutely unproductive, forex is much more the international roulette wheel. There can't be a forex tax without destroying this 'market', without which, the idea of an actual floating currency dies. Fixing commodity prices can only happen by fixing currency exchange rates and there is no way known TPTB have any intention of doing that.