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vtsnowedin wrote:And with what fuel will the online stores deliver their products to you?

It's a hell of a lot more efficient for the brown UPS truck (or other brand equivalent) to drive an optimized route and drop off hundreds of packages, than have everyone travel to a retail store, miles away on average. It will be decades before such delivery is really unaffordable, but if FF's get expensive then there will be a delivery surcharge. We already saw some of that in 2008. Inconvenience. Not doom.

Oh, and the fuel will be what is most practical. UPS is experimenting with electric delivery vans, NG delivery vans, etc. Such business look ahead and try to be prepared, which is one of the reasons they are competing successfully.

vtsnowedin wrote:I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order.

In how many decades? Five? There is a LOT of NG and coal. There is also a LOT of oil, though it might get rather expensive.

People can adapt and will adapt if forced to. If oil gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis, the fuel will be predominantly green electricity. NG and coal might still fire some of the electricity, depending on how the green energy curve ramps up.

Again, not doom. Change. Perhaps more cost and inconvenience. But we put up with some of that all the time -- it's called living on a more crowded planet.

I don't see how Chris Martenson is different from any of the other Cassandras.

Well, he doesn't want to give specific timeframes -- since he wants you to pay him to read his stuff. Which makes him even more useless.

But of course, since he says what the doomers want to hear, he's a hero.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-ma ... 47403.html

How many decades must doomers follow bad advice before they stop considering bad advice a good thing?

Martenson is a huckster for precious metals, and has been for years. PMs are currency, a symbol for value. To me, there is nothing that inherently makes PMs superior to pieces of paper with green ink pictures of dead presidents on them. Both are symbols for real value. Perhaps the PM coins and bars retain value for a few days longer than printed currency, a delusion created by the hucksters, but after a week or so, all currency value symbols are equally worthless. Any other interpretation would be unbearably optimistic. For example, if my food supply was insufficient to satisfy my appetites, I'll trade for other food or other necessities of life, but no form of currency, because symbols for value don't provide any nourishment.

Perhaps you feel differently. Good luck with that.

Well in this Kaiser, you and I totally agree. Hooray. I would add
something that should be obvious but needs repeating: Materially everything that could be of value to us is derived ultimately from our host planet. Our species has acted with wanton disregard to this axiom. Someone said that the prime ultimate was human intellect. This is a fatal hubris

Ibon wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order.

I see obesity rates dropping fast. Just how much diet coke can you carry when you have to walk to pick up your supplies

I know I am a broken record on the topic but obesity has far more to do with what you eat disrupting your endocrine system (stimulating excess insulin mainly) than lack of exercise. Humans in study after study with a low insulin stimulating diet maintain a stable healthy weight or lose weight to a stable healthy weight without any changes in their exercise levels.

Tanada wrote:

Ibon wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:I think you will end up walking to the nearest B&M store that sits next to a rail line to pick up your order you had sent by rail to them with an online order.

I see obesity rates dropping fast. Just how much diet coke can you carry when you have to walk to pick up your supplies

I know I am a broken record on the topic but obesity has far more to do with what you eat disrupting your endocrine system (stimulating excess insulin mainly) than lack of exercise. Humans in study after study with a low insulin stimulating diet maintain a stable healthy weight or lose weight to a stable healthy weight without any changes in their exercise levels.

That was also my point. You aren't going to be buying processed junk food if you have to walk to pick it up!

There are indigenous families here who haul up their weeks supply of food up the road here. It's full grain dried field corn, rice, beans, a couple pounds of meat, flour, sugar, coffee, salt, oil. They grow onions, potatoes and veggies on their small garden plots. Not a single packaged box or processed food item except for a candy bar or two for their kids.

If oil gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis, the fuel will be predominantly green electricity.

Oops. A few posts ago when I said this, I meant when GASOLINE gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis. i.e. that oil is horrendously expensive.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

If oil gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis, the fuel will be predominantly green electricity.

Oops. A few posts ago when I said this, I meant when GASOLINE gets to something like $20 on a sustained basis. i.e. that oil is horrendously expensive.

What do you think will happen between current prices and your hypothetical $20 per gallon? Demand destruction won't allow prices to go that high. Maybe Trump will wave his magic golden golf club and bring millions of barrels of affordable green replacements into the market, eh?

KaiserJeep wrote:Martenson is a huckster for precious metals, and has been for years. PMs are currency, a symbol for value. To me, there is nothing that inherently makes PMs superior to pieces of paper with green ink pictures of dead presidents on them. Both are symbols for real value. Perhaps the PM coins and bars retain value for a few days longer than printed currency, a delusion created by the hucksters, but after a week or so, all currency value symbols are equally worthless. Any other interpretation would be unbearably optimistic. For example, if my food supply was insufficient to satisfy my appetites, I'll trade for other food or other necessities of life, but no form of currency, because symbols for value don't provide any nourishment.

Perhaps you feel differently. Good luck with that.

PMs used to make me uncomfortable. They "can't be eaten" as it's usually put. However upon further inspection, they start making sense. For a long list of reasons, they were the perfect token of exchange in the past where they stood the test of time (several millenia), and they could well again be in a low energy future, where the power of fiat money to expand the money supply will be pointless.

Ultimately an economy even a simple one cannot function on bartering. Could a technologically advanced mint that produces coins and bills with security features make pms pointless? Could the government be trusted? Idk. But even then pms have an allure and beauty that base metals and paper money will never have.

One thing is for sure, one way or another, fiat money will crash and burn, the certainty of that is 100%. The stock market too. Only farmland and pms look solid. And PMs will surely be a robust wealth protector in the future. I don't see a way they lose their value significantly.
Well actually I do. The two major hurdles I see in the future come from the government. 1) the government bans or confiscates them
2) the government imposes an electronic currency in order to gain control over the disgruntled populace when there isn't enough energy for vehicles, heating, etc.
In any case there is no perfect investment and you need to weigh the pros and the cons.

I've always been averse to PMs, money is a confidence game, literally. Unless the coin of the realm is in the process of inflating away it will always be what the proles look to. I'm not talking few percent inflation, 10's and 100's percent.

All the fanfiction scenarios about FRNs becoming worthless the day after armageddon presume that everyone left is a survivalist, they won't be.

The main problem I imagine with precious metals is you buy at retail and sell at wholesale. Go right now to whatever website and look at the buying and selling prices, be sure to include all commissions, shipping, taxes? and whatever. 50 years from now that might have been a good idea (if the society is prospering) but not next month or year.

And that is in the age of the internet, in some bad situation you might need to walk up to someone and announce you have some gold to trade. Be sure to wear the shirt with the big bullseye on the back.

My thought is the kid next door is pretty unlikely to trade you his 10-speed for a rock, shiny or not. But 8 or 10 $20 bills? One thing is sure, it's very likely that he tells everyone of his friends that his nextdoor neighbor has a buttload of gold.

If a person has unlimited funds then why not have a few tons of gold too? But short of that, in some armageddon scenario I think land, tools, skills are the only reliable investment.

Pops wrote:If a person has unlimited funds then why not have a few tons of gold too? But short of that, in some armageddon scenario I think land, tools, skills are the only reliable investment.

A well stocked wine cellar with some barrels of good whisky might serve one well.
And never discount the value of a loving spouse.

^+1

rayo wrote:
PMs used to make me uncomfortable. They "can't be eaten" as it's usually put. However upon further inspection, they start making sense.

I think that quote comes from the old survivalist forums where men start fires with rocks and hunt with bow and arrow. It's a remarkably shallow ideology and speaks more to the financial illiteracy of such men as it does to gold's usefulness as a portable store of wealth.

I watched a great youtube a while back about the Roman conquest of southern England, why the hell they would bother going there in the first place was a mystery but they did and for a while successfully subdued the forest wild lands. When they eventually abandoned the enterprise due to the northern barbarians they fled en mass back down to the Thames river and then back over the channel to what became France.

They left behind a lot of typical Roman infrastructure, most notably Hadrian's wall. Some years ago archeologists digging in what was once a Roman settlement in the North uncovered a stash of gold coins, it was speculated that the owner had left them well hidden, expecting to come back when the region was stabilized. Perhaps so? perhaps the government lied to these people, telling them it was a temporary retreat lol. 1700 years later the coins were still intact and still worth a small fortune, even ignoring their value as collectables.

Land is a good store of wealth, but incurs taxes and a lot of maintenance work typically, food in general doesn't store too well over the decades though, but gold, well its history speaks for itself. All peoples in all advanced civilizations, going back millennia, have understood the value of gold. It is only our modern post WWII western cultures who have grown ignorant to its value. Most Asian cultures still understand it's purpose as do many middle eastern ones I'll wager. But the football fans stuffing their faces with beer and hotdogs are oblivious to its nature, to them it is worthless, and that's fine too, since there simply isn't enough gold on the planet to allow everyone to have a nice stash.

Gold is not a direct currency today as you can't fill up your car or buy your groceries with it. But you can sell it for cash then go buy what you need with the dealers in gold giving you a haircut coming and going.
A little pot of gold weighing ten pounds is about a quarter million USD today and will fit nicely in the back corner of your gun safe. But everybody including the government will always be trying to steal it so it has it's hazards.

Oh yes, you have to be careful owning it, and it's true purpose is not to use as cash, it is to provide for you if all else fails. I have never considered selling any gold, the gold gurus suggest likewise, it's a hedge, a hedge against insane monetary policy they say. There is a lovely example of an American who went to Germany in the 1920's during the height of the inflation there, he gave a $20 gold coin to the local deli owner and ate well for 3 months on it. Gold has it's uses.

I never understood the "you can't eat it" angle either. You can't eat clothes, shelter, or transportation either. In fact, most things people use today can't be eaten. So, what was the point of saying gold can't be eaten?

Looking at the old posts, before the Lockdown, you see the smugness and arrogance of those who thought they knew it all and had all the answers. Peak Oil isn't real. Gold is just a shiny rock. Preparations are a waste of time.

While they refused to listen, refused to prepare, refused to cooperate, others spent the time getting ready for the world we are in today.

One actually posted a Chris Martenson article from 2011 that gave lots of good advice, as if it typical nonsense. What does the Bible say, Don't throw your pearls before swine.

Turkey is asking it's citizens to turn in all their gold jewelry to the government so it can be melted into gold bullion.

China doesn't sell any of its mined gold to outsiders. Russia has been stockpiling gold for years. And, guess who is telling the United States what to do regarding the 'new' International order for the 21st century.

The United States can be stupid about gold because they have weak countries on their border and they have the world reserve currency. So, all the inflation can be exported around the world. But, for countries that the United States cannot bully anymore, the dollar's days are numbered.

Gold never went away. The dollar just gave it a little vacation. Now, it is time for the United States to get back to work and gold makes that happen.

Gold and silver are money. Everything else is just credit.

In a post apocalypse world your top three needs or priorities are: food, water, and shelter, with clothing suitable for the climate being a subset of shelter.
If you have gold but no food you have to find someone that would swap the food he needs himself for gold he can't eat. You are not going to find many takers.
Next on the list for you and those around you is personnel defense so you might be able to swap a few rounds of ammunition for some food if the other guy has a surplus and needs the ammo for both protection and a means of harvesting more food.
I expect 30-30 ammo to be the currency of a post apocalyptic world with 22LR being the small change.

noobtube wrote:Looking at the old posts, before the Lockdown, you see the smugness and arrogance of those who thought they knew it all and had all the answers.

You mean, like when peak oil was real?

noobtube wrote:Peak Oil isn't real.

This entire website was built on the opposite idea. And it having happened way back when. A couple of times. And only a moron says peak oil isn't real, so you must be referring to the same people doing the Amero, US military draft, and building homemade claymores to keep the MZB away types?

noobtube wrote:One actually posted a Chris Martenson article from 2011 that gave lots of good advice, as if it typical nonsense. What does the Bible say, Don't throw your pearls before swine.

Indeed. He was pimping resource economic ignorance back when everyone said peak oil had already happened! As far as the Bible, folks who knew this back when Chris and the folks at this website didn't certainly got banned for daring to know the truth about, what do we call it, pre-Apocalytic Recycled Doomerisms?

noobtube wrote:Gold and silver are money. Everything else is just credit.

Someone needs to tell the local grocery because they keep taking green pieces of paper, and no one in the place was giving them money for food, just paper! Send me a $1 worth of gold, I'll try out your theory at the grocery, see how they go about handling REAL money.

vtsnowedin wrote: I expect 30-30 ammo to be the currency of a post apocalyptic world with 22LR being the small change.

I get the 22LR, but I think the 30-30 is a bit out of date. Or is that just because I've been out West for most of my life and you just don't see them? 270, 300 Win Mag, sure. I did the deer hunting in the eastern woodlands with a 30-30, but that only lasted until I was 15 and acquired my first 30-06. Not popular like it once was, but sufficient with the right bullet for most everything on the continent, so I never got around to switching over to a more popular western caliber.

noobtube wrote:I never understood the "you can't eat it" angle either.... what was the point of saying gold can't be eaten?

I believe those end-of-worlders just wanted to believe they had the edge with what they had. A bunch of old men living offgrid, digging in the mud and chasing chickens would have no means to acquire gold, so they had to say it was worthless, an ego thing. Those self-styled survivalist types, where do they get their rule book? What body of knowledge are they drawing on? Camping experiences mostly; and military indoctrination, hunting experiences, religious beliefs, ... In other words a mashup of totally unrelated fields, whatever takes your fancy basically.

What they fail to realize though is that their whole life from cradle to grave is dictated by how much money they have lol. Take away their money and the farm goes, the bullets go, and they are living on the street in SF eating out of a soup kitchen. For the most part they are a simple minded lot so expecting them to understand monetary policy, on the global scale, is asking too much.

noobtube wrote:Looking at the old posts, before the Lockdown, you see the smugness and arrogance of those who thought they knew it all and had all the answers...

Turkey is asking it's citizens to turn in all their gold jewelry

Quite right noobtube, and look at the trucker business in Canada, they and their supporters are threatened with having their bank accounts frozen, many just for donating to a cause! How many here on the forum have all their money in digital accounts? The vast majority of course. At the click of a mouse their future can be wiped clean lol lol. Cash in hand? That can repudiated quickly too, but not that quickly, and gold not at all.

The vast majority of people are one government declared disaster away from the poor house, and yet they are still trading stocks in overvalued companies like it was 1999? They have no idea that the value of nearly all the world's companies are worthless without oil. Even here they are oblivious! When the hammer falls I want the lions share in fungible assets, cash and gold and silver, and I want to have all the technological things bought that I might need in the years to come; spare computers, solar panels, bicycles and tires, motorcycles, spare appliances. Blenders and electric kettles go up and up in price, and their quality goes down and down, but they last forever in their boxes and don't take up room in a downstairs cupboard.