Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Posted: **Wed 19 Jan 2011, 21:10:41**

deleted[/quote]
I'm a bit confused by your position. Is it:

A. We hit peak oil 5 years ago, but it was a non-event.
B. We have not hit peak oil yet.
C. Anything with the words "peak oil" in it gets scoffed at regardless of what I may have said 5 minutes ago.

Posted: **Wed 19 Jan 2011, 21:21:35**

I have been saying since 2006 that PO will never be reached and acknowledged because once we reach the plateau, the economy will crash. We are at the brink now.

Posted: **Thu 20 Jan 2011, 00:54:31**

I must have missed something whilst I was gone, as all of Xeno's posts seem to have disappeared. Has he been behaving badly again?

Posted: **Tue 25 Jan 2011, 01:30:32**

New High of Liquid Fuel Production

Both the IEA and OPEC are out with their new monthly reports today. And both report that oil production in November 2010 exceeded the previous high month of July 2008 (back when oil was $140). Probably the difference is within the margin of error, and in any case the third agency (the EIA) won't weigh in for a few months. At the moment, the average index looks like pretty much a statistical tie . . . Still, a significant point: not peak monthly oil just yet. As long as there isn't a massive financial crisis in the next few months (which is what happened to the last global high in oil production) I imagine we'll clearly exceed the July 2008 peak production. In particular, the point I first made here still holds: the increases in the last eighteen months have largely come from non-OPEC production rather than OPEC, and the latter undoubtedly still have some spare capacity that can be released (at a price). Thus production can and will go somewhat higher as long as demand continues to increase, which will be true as long as the global economy doesn't hit another big pothole.

Doesn't mean anything.
Production was cut back during the GFC, and is now going back up again.

The GFC has simply postponed peak production a few years is all.

Posted: **Tue 25 Jan 2011, 01:33:29**

And "peak oil" is not the same as "peak production".

You can hit peak oil but still increase production because not all the wells are being extracted at any given time.
Where there is an economic downturn, as recently, production is cut back by turning off wells.

When the economy begines to grow again, you can increase production for a while until you hit the limit.

Posted: **Tue 25 Jan 2011, 08:53:47**

kildred590 wrote:And "peak oil" is not the same as "peak production".

You might want to change the wiki for this topic then. Not that it is any good, but they might need some schoolin, because they certainly think its peak production rate.

Posted: **Tue 25 Jan 2011, 09:01:54**

peripato wrote:I must have missed something whilst I was gone, as all of Xeno's posts seem to have disappeared. Has he been behaving badly again?

But we have DoomersUnite now!

He is proving t be quite a troll.

Posted: **Wed 26 Jan 2011, 01:22:31**

eXpat wrote:
peripato wrote:I must have missed something whilst I was gone, as all of Xeno's posts seem to have disappeared. Has he been behaving badly again?

But we have DoomersUnite now! He is proving t be quite a troll.

Is it me, or is there more trolling than ever? Trolls taking over your forum is BAD. Drives people away, but I guess that's their plan all along. Oh well, can't keep the truth from surfacing in the end though, no matter how hard you try and shout it down...

Posted: **Thu 10 Feb 2011, 13:49:52**

We are now incontrovertibly at a new high! :lol:

LINK

Both OPEC and the IEA put out their latest estimates of global liquid fuel production today. The numbers are up again, and have now incontrovertibly passed the previous highs of July 2008:

Posted: **Thu 10 Feb 2011, 14:07:26**

And like Staniford said, this isn't a one month bump like in '08, it's several months at a higher rate and 2 years along the trend.

Watching how the price plot reacts the next couple of months will be interesting, I was sure the production number was going to look just like this and it's why I guessed at $139 or whatever in the price challenge.

Posted: **Thu 10 Feb 2011, 22:55:46**

OilFinder2 wrote:But . . . but . . . but . . . this wasn't supposed to happen!

You know, in another month or two as the new peak becomes even more established, I am SO going to preen over having been right all along!!
:lol:

Posted: **Tue 15 Mar 2011, 15:33:41**

Up, up and away!!!

IEA Confirms New High of Fuel Production

Posted: **Tue 15 Mar 2011, 15:58:56**

OilFinder2 wrote:Up, up and away!!!
IEA Confirms New High of Fuel Production

Yeah, it's amazing. This growth stuff never seems to stop. I'm wondering when we will reach 1GB/day.

Posted: **Tue 15 Mar 2011, 18:06:27**

So, we declare "victory" if the world manages to produce more liquid fuels, no matter what?

So no matter the economic cost of oil and its equivalent, and the consequences for little things like the ability to feed and house the growing population?

No matter the increasingly obvious strain on the environmnent and thus its ability to sustain us long (or perhaps even medium) term?

No matter that seeing headlines like this likely causes much of the cluess (voting) class to say "ah, all is well, guess we don't have to worry about energy any more" -- enabling idiot politicians to continue BAU ensuring the situation gets worse long term?

No matter the liquid fuel production growth rate compared to the population growth rate?

Enjoy your victory dance. As a moderate, I consider the jury out as far as peak oil until it is CLEARLY demonstrated anyway. However, as one who can ponder negative as well as positive trends, the celebration seems a bit premature.

edit - fixed typo

Posted: **Wed 08 Jun 2011, 13:57:46**

BP Statistical Review 2011 came out today.

Let's start with oil - this includes NGL's:
BP Statistical Review 2011

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2010 or 2.2%

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004 and was divided evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC. The largest increases in OPEC were in Nigeria (+340,000 b/d) and Qatar (+220,000 b/d). Non-OPEC output increased by 0.9 Mb/d, the highest since 2002, and was led by China (+271 Kb/d) - which recorded its largest increase ever-, the US (+242 Kb/d), and Russia (+236 Kb/d).

Methodology
Oil production data includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and coal derivatives.

[...]

Here's the totals. Numbers in barrels/day.

Oil, including NGL's
2005: 81,485
2006: 81,729
2007: 81,544
2008: 82,015
2009: 80,278
2010: 82,095

Here we get the biofuels page.

Biofuels
2005: 662
2006: 839
2007: 1,114
2008: 1,488
2009: 1,658
2010: 1,894

Now add 'em up ...

Totals
2005: 82,147
2006: 82,568
2007: 82,658
2008: 83,503
2009: 81,936
2010: 83,989

So we easily made a new all-liquids high last year!

Posted: **Wed 08 Jun 2011, 14:07:42**

OilFinder2 wrote:BP Statistical Review 2011 came out today.

Now add 'em up ...

Totals
2005: 82,147
2006: 82,568
2007: 82,658
2008: 83,503
2009: 81,936
2010: 83,989

So we easily made a new all-liquids high last year!

Faith Birol, an economist of impeccable credentials with the IEA said that peak oil was in 2006.

Obviously the source for your information must be in error.

Posted: **Thu 09 Jun 2011, 07:28:18**

OilFinder2 wrote:2010: 83,989

What's the total for net energy? I mean surely, if you are including biofuels you must deduct the oil that went into the production of it? To do otherwise is just double counting and dishonest. What about all the increased energy used to extract C&C?

Posted: **Thu 09 Jun 2011, 10:23:46**

TheDude wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:But . . . but . . . but . . . this wasn't supposed to happen!

May '10-Aug '08 C+C= -634.08 kb/d
July '10-July '08 NGL= 304.61 kb/d

And that's just NGLs. So this is good news if you're on the market for fuel for your barbie, as regards the ultimate peak in global production it doesn't quite mean bupkus yet.

barbie? You miss the point: condensates do not contain as much energy per volume as crude. The world is running on less BTUs.

Posted: **Fri 16 Sep 2011, 01:39:44**

Looks like we're back at - and maybe just a wee bit above, according to the IEA - the pre-Libya crisis level.

LINKY

Posted: **Fri 16 Sep 2011, 08:02:38**

I saw that, and if his price plot was OPEC or Brent it would show a high of about $130.

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