Recently I wrote about speculation in the commodities markets and the volatility that results being a factor in future energy production, whether of the FF sort or otherwise. Looking for news for the front page this morning I came across this release from ConocoPhillips regarding scraping plans for "upgrading" a facility in Germany. Ostensibly the reason is reducing the companies "downstream portfolio".
Being a peaker, my first thought when I saw this story a day or two ago, was, of course they would decide not to invest in an "upgrade" (and maybe even decide to sell the whole thing) because we are at peak production somewhere about now where supply will fall from here on out. I didn't really investigate further. But this news release seems instructive, particularly this boilerplate sentence explaining all the reasons "forward-looking statements" can go awry:
Accordingly, our actual results, including project plans, costs, timing and capacities, capital and exploration expenditures, and share repurchase levels, could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the following: (a) fluctuations in crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids prices, refining and marketing margins and margins for our chemicals business; (b) potential failures or delays in achieving expected reserve or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks and the inherent uncertainties in predicting oil and gas reserves and oil and gas reservoir performance; (c) unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities or the inability to obtain access to exploratory acreage; (d) failure of new products and services to achieve market acceptance; (e) unexpected changes in costs or technical requirements for constructing, modifying or operating facilities for exploration and production, manufacturing, refining or transportation projects; (f) unexpected technological or commercial difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products, including synthetic crude oil and chemicals products; (g) lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, LNG and refined products; (h) inability to timely obtain or maintain permits, including those necessary for construction of LNG terminals or regasification facilities, or refinery projects; comply with government regulations; or make capital expenditures required to maintain compliance; (i) failure to complete definitive agreements and feasibility studies for, and to timely complete construction of, announced and future exploration and production, LNG, refinery and transportation projects; (j) potential disruption or interruption of our operations due to accidents, extraordinary weather events, civil unrest, political events or terrorism; (k) international monetary conditions and exchange controls; (l) substantial investment or reduced demand for products as a result of existing or future environmental rules and regulations; (m) liability for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; (n) liability resulting from litigation; (o) general domestic and international economic and political developments, including armed hostilities; expropriation of assets; changes in governmental policies relating to crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids or refined product pricing, regulation or taxation; other political, economic or diplomatic developments; and international monetary fluctuations; (p) changes in tax and other laws, regulations (including alternative energy mandates), or royalty rules applicable to our business; (q) limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; (r) delays in, or our inability to implement, our asset disposition plan; (s) inability to obtain economical financing for projects, construction or modification of facilities and general corporate purposes; and (t) the operation and financing of our midstream and chemicals joint ventures.
That pretty well covers the whole shooting match, including peak oil, climate change regulation, EROEI. Everything up to and maybe including Mr. Fusion!
Posted: Wed 27 Aug 2008, 19:03:20
