sparky wrote:.
OK OK , I concede !! ,
I was thinking of Hubbert , Deffeyes , Cambell and other industry geologists and CEO who have expressed their worries
about an ever rising production .
Not all CEO's are geologists...here is a perfect example, a standard bean counter type in charge..
Background in corporate affairs and human relations for crying out loud...I wonder if that ranks higher or lower than amateur violin players?
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stock ... d=22385966http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/oil-prod ... l-ceo.htmlsparky wrote:The demand for C+C has no obvious natural limit , while the supply of C+C face some serious issues
certainly there are other energy and feed-stocks precursors available ,
but they come at a price , both financial , technical and political
Well, it seems to me in light of our understanding that consumers don't give a horses backside about C+C or light sweet or shale or tar sands or whatever, what matters is the cost of those manufactured problems from carbons and hydrogens to the end user.
sparky wrote:Can they be made as cheap and plentiful as crude ?
Of course not. Otherwise they would replace crude. The more interesting question is when do other combinations of carbons and hydrogens become the marginal supply? The answer being...they already have, otherwise there would be no tar sands production, tight oil production, off shore production, heck, there wouldn't be any oil at all derived from modern drilling techniques like the rotary table! Springpoles and spudding beams forever!
The good news is that crude oil price increases are limited by the GTL process, and we already know what that upper limit is. Approximately $17/gal, if my calculations are correct (easily verified by anyone by taking a trip to the oil lube section at a local Walmart where they sell such GTL refined products).
The transport horrors to those who are already participating in the transportation revolution are about this much...
Wife spends about $19/year on gasoline, commuting and collecting groceries and whatnot, so if she spends $17/gal instead of $1.90/gal, her fuel for the year skyrockets from $19/year to $170!! She will die of a coronary, having to spend an additional $0.41/day on fuel! She will undoubtedly choke on that additional cost. Or not, instead appreciating her advanced thinking and choices when it comes to common, mass produced, American made transport. Powered mostly by something else that is just a nasty polluting mess anyways.
sparky wrote:it would require some very massive effort to work 33 millions barrel a day of Venezuelan or Canada extra heavies
Unnecessary. Energy experts are quite enamored with the peak demand idea, exactly because of american drivers (soon to be European and Asian and others as well) like my wife. Americans, and others, will choose to use less before they attempt to overcome the ridiculous restrictions necessary to pry those amounts of oil out of Venezuela. Canada? Sure that is possible, but also unlikely for environment reasons.
sparky wrote:fracking was a divine surprise ,
however a look at the typical depletion curve tell us that if the production reach 10 millions barrels /days
there will have to be a truly staggering number of drilling to keep up with that number .
a few years ago I learned than Santa Claus is not real ,
Hydraulic fracturing has been going on for 60+ years, hardly a surprise at all, let alone a divine one. As far as Santa Claus, I just learned a few years ago that peak oil was going to cause lower oil supply back then, global wars, $200/bbl oil, starvation, fedghettos, martial law, and the reinstatement of the draft here in the US. Imagine my surprise!
sparky wrote:It seems to me that C+C extraction will peak then decrease , maybe not in a smooth symmetrical curve
this follows the basic law of extracting industries ,
if you dig something out , it will run out
Fortunate indeed that peak demand appears to be more of a threat then peak supply because of any geologic limitations. According to real energy expert types anyway, although I am forced to admit to being partial to their ideas, Amy Jaffe and my wife having the same EV setup in their pluggable hybrids.