Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Dang Libya, it would have been interesting (in a detached, clinical way) to watch that bottom chart without the dip.

I still think the trend is flat. The increase is also more expensive to produce than before, which is a big reason oil isn't ~50/bbl like in 2005. I doubt the market will support 110ish Brent much longer, along with the solvency issues still hanging around.

If the price crashes the economy again (Europe this time around), does the dip in production only come because of reduced demand? Or because the increases are uneconomical if the price drops much below 85/bbl?

It's much more complicated than you're trying to make it seem.

rshizzle wrote:I still think the trend is flat. The increase is also more expensive to produce than before, which is a big reason oil isn't ~50/bbl like in 2005. I doubt the market will support 110ish Brent much longer, along with the solvency issues still hanging around.

If the price crashes the economy again (Europe this time around), does the dip in production only come because of reduced demand? Or because the increases are uneconomical if the price drops much below 85/bbl?

It's much more complicated than you're trying to make it seem.

I agree. $85 is the price Saudi Arabia has sworn to defend with production cuts. Short of another collapse in the economy, as in 2008, when both price and production where slashed, I see no reason to question their resolve. Under "business as usual" cheap oil is finished.

I think we are watching the wrong data stream. What is more to the point is the world total of liquid fuel and crude oil exported from one country to another. That subtracts all the oil used to develop and lift the oil plus all the consumption in the country of origin. The year when that number takes a significant downturn will be the starting bell for (fill in the blank as you will) ________, and having a higher number of total liquids produced will not help at all any country that has to import oil.

Faith Birol, an economist of impeccable credentials with the IEA said that peak oil was in 2006.

Obviously the source for your information must be in error.

And it did. The "record" levels have been achieved with unconventional oil, which is more expensive.

Pay attention.

If ultimate recoverable is 2.2Tb then we are right on track.



http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8604?utm ... il+Drum%29

It will as always be an interesting ride. Perhaps oil hasn't "peaked", but it still remains expensive. Meanwhile The economy is very discombobulated, unemployment may have dropped, but less pay and hours worked are the new norm. The senate is passing a bill to detain US citizens indefinitely. These are not exactly the rosy times of 2001.

The common belief was that the Titanic would never sink. After all, it was billed as the modern marvel, the unsinkable Titanic. When dealing with beliefs, reason is suspended. I believe we are in for a hundred years of contraction. I believe the cause of that is peak oil, climate change and population overshoot. The rest of you may choose to believe what you will.

90!!

Give or take. At least 89-ish.




Ze link

liquid fuel ain't convential oil of2

and oil @$100 = recession

plus 200,000 extra humans each day = imminent collapse

the limits to growth are not just about oil or runaway climate change

Up, up, and awaaaaaay.







LINKY DINK

OilFinder2 wrote:Up, up, and awaaaaaay.

New highs in both supply AND price.



Up, up and awaaaay indeed.

>New highs in both supply AND price.
2 fails in 1. That's pretty poor isn't it? Can't you manage 5 fails in 1 like any other decent POer ?

fail 1 : oil prices hit there high of around $130 in 2008. So the current price of around $105 isn't a new high. Should have known this from memory. But peakers live in the 'Now' which blinds them from the past and the future.
fail 2 : But you don't need a memory. All you have to do is click on a corny link, which gives you this image, which shows the oil price below its 2008 high. Failed to click on link.



How come a forum full of so called Peak Oil enthusiasts require outside help from cornys to do their graphs for them? I even gave you the numbers over a week ago and gracefully gave you all time to draw the graph and sumbit it yourselves. Fail. Now Oilfinder2 has done it for you. Same as last year. Same again next year? Pathetic.

Looking at the graph, we can speculate oil production for 2012.
2011 was the year Libya production stalled by about 1Mbpd, but still new world production highs. What does that say about general world production? It's soaring. This is what cornies predicted, and what POers didn't predict.
So what for 2012?
Record high production.
The massive expansion of oil industry in the middle east will continue, offsetting any decline elsewhere by around 1Mbpd. Libya production will come back on line to the effect of 1Mbpd over 2011. So we're looking at at least 90 to 91Mbpd average for 2012.

Civilization is awash with oil more than ever.

On the pessimist side - its just a question of which country the anglo american oil cartel assaults next. Will they do 2 in one year? If Syria and Iran production goes off, then that'll probably prevent new record highs. POer's will scream PO!!! but everyone will know its temporary while the oil infrastructure is refitted for 21st century scale production.
Heck, it'd be testament to the dumbness of POers if after several middle east goverment overthrows and oil industry refits that POers misinterpret one of these temporary oil production stalls as world geological peak. In fact I would like to see it, just so we can get a good crop of PO hysterical quotes. They haven't had a year that hasn't broken new oil production highs for a while now, they're now starved and desperate and will probably go berserk given the slightest excuse.

Just ask any corny:

“Brent crude prices are approaching their highest annual average, a level higher than the peaks recorded by other widely accepted benchmarks going back to Colonel Drake and the origins of the modern petroleum industry in Pennsylvania more than a century and a half ago,” IHS CERA Chairman and Author of The Quest, Daniel Yergin said.

“Quite simply, we are looking at the highest average price since the age of oil began.”

Nothing to see here, the world is still awash in oil, go back to sleep.

I think most of us here understand the relationship between conventional crude and unconventional sources. While the wheels have decidedly not come off the tracks, it appears that what is happening is that expensive plateauing conventional crude is paving the way for the high prices required to support that area in the total liquids charts which is NOT Crude. The problem I see, and many others also, is that this is not sustainable. Growing that unconventional is far more resource and capital intensive than that easy crude which is beginning to decline. There is going to be a period where this looks manageable. It may be for a bit, but my guess is that the time will come where it becomes obvious that we have reached that point where unconventional cant replace conventional. I personally think that happens in a very short time frame. In light of the global financial instability it may come sooner than later, I refrain from guessing however.

Characterizing total liquids production as "Soaring" given recent price trends is an obfuscation and a manipulation of the facts. I doubt most folks who understand the overall picture would use that term. Those who want to push buttons and play devils advocate for their own entertainment however seem to have no problem bending truth. Unconventional production will begin to have serious problems once the overall decline causes the capital and energy costs to rise substantially from where they are now.
The two are intertwined and somewhat dependent on each other in a balancing act.

As Global net Exports become the more prominent indicator moving forward, this upper chart is an important one. Despite the anomaly of 2008, the steady increase in price for crude is telling. I'd put to any of the "corny's" a simple question, why is price on its inexorable march higher if production is soaring? Doesnt make sense, at least to the rest of us who decide to look a bit deeper. The price is climbing simply because conventional crude is still the majority of the market. As conventional plateaus and begins its decline, Unconventional wont be able to keep up. There just isnt enough of it on a comparative scale. Believing it will ramp sufficiently to offset conventional decline is a pipe dream.

100 million barrels a day, here we come!!!!