Jupiter - "Does anyone think first world countries can or attempt to extend 'BAU' in the first world by destroying demand through unprecedented levels of war and genocide in second and third world countries?". A couple of questions. Not to be too picky but do you really think the current state of affairs is worse then during WWII? Perhaps your that much younger then the Rockman. LOL. More important the 2nd and 3rd world economies don't consume that much energy compared to the world's industrialized economies. The US (#1) and China (#2) combined consume almost 6X as much energy as India (#3).
Just the top ten 1st world countries account for 80% of global energy consumption:
https://yearbook.enerdata.netThat's just 10 countries out of the world's 195 countries. Forget the 2nd and 3rd world:
the US and China consume more the 10X as much energy as the 12 smallest industrialized 1st world countries COMBINED. Sounds cruel but it's true: you can't steal much from a poor man.
The industrialized world, especially the glutinous US, has always usurped energy of the 2nd and 3rd world citizens. And didn't have to resort to "war and genocide" to do so: it was done, and always will be done, by financial clout. The relative small US population consumes a hugely disproportionate amount of global energy the old fashion way: we bought it.
The severe completion for energy in the future will be between the 1st world nations as the struggle to maintain BAU as much as possible. And how will that struggle shape up for the two biggest energy consumers that have two of the largest (including nuclear) armed militaries on the planet? Long ago I came up with one more silly acronym to describe one possible dynamic:
MADOR. Similar to the
MAD dynamic of the Cold War...Mutually Assured Destruction. Obviously no point in two nuclear powers to go to war: no winner. So now we have MADOR...Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. IOW if the two strongest "financial armies" go to war: no winner. Thus possibly similar to the surrogate conflicts fought between the two nuclear supper powers we'll have surrogate financial wars fought over resources. One can look at current events and perhaps see some hints of it already beginning. And as in military conflicts there will be collateral damage: the other smaller industrialized 1st world economies. After all they will be the primary competition for China and the US.
Energy resources are not so limited today so the serious battles haven't started yet. But those recent times when oil, NG and coal saw much higher costs might be considered a "shot across the bow" to the rest of the energy consumers that had to compete with the US and China...and India.