Peak Oil News and Message Boards

tokyo_to_motueka wrote:and the climate change is probably mainly the result of burning fossil fuels.


Gaia doesn't do economics.

Mother nature bats last

Yepp, you don't treat Mother Nature nice and you will get hit.

Something they don't teach in school but the American Indians and Aborigines knew this. Respect for Nature.

I think there is some confusion here. The 54 billion barrels of oil estimated in the ultra-deep areas was a Pemex estimate prior to them having much in the way of hard data over their portion of deepwate GOM. I need to dig up the USGS estimate but I think it is an order of magnitude smaller. There was a regional seismic survey shot in the Mexican portion of the Gulf this past year and I suspect this has served to illustrate where the attractive areas are limited to. The comment that decreasing to half that size means it is uneconomic is not surprising simply because we are talking about 3000 m of water depth here. The last time I looked the deepest water that a tension leg platform has been put yet is just under 2000 m. The costs to operate in those water depths is absolutely pheonomenal....the wells have to be highly productive so there is a minimum of drilling...they must be drilled in such a manner as they never have to be re-entered (workovers are uneconomic). In order to go to the next level of 2500 m wd the costs are going to escalate even further. That being said some day you will see production from 3000 m water depth....wells have been drilled up to about 2800m water depth I believe (West Africa I think has the record) the minimum economic reserve size will likely be large but new technology may help to lower the threshold. As to dealing with the hurricanes.....I am always amazed at human invention...on the East Coast of Canada companies produce gas from an area smack dab in the middle of "ice berg alley" .....they came up with some very neat concrete casson designs. Similarily at Kashagan in the northernmost Caspian the consortium developing that field ended up having to invent new ice breakers as well as concrete casson designs in order to deal with the fact that the Caspian in the northern reaches actually freezes to ground level. The amazing advances made in harsh area shallow water drilling that occurred in the 80's in the Beaufort Sea is also a case in point. So I doubt it is out of the realm of possibility that someday there will be some system for platforms that protects them from potential hurricane damage....mind you I am an optimist .

Browse through this interesting pdf from the DOE that the MSM seems to completely miss the point of...

100% of GOM oil out (and look at the percentage figures for the past month), 20% of the country's refineries down, NG Henry Hub down, gee golly whilickers...

In a nutshell, virtually 3/4 of the script for the 'Oil Storm' is playing out, and prices go down...must be one hell of a recession looming one wonders...

DOE pdf report (link)

To put this into context...

1.5Mb/d approximately represents ALL of Iraq's current exports...

But don't worry, we'll use the SPR and the IEA member nation's SPR's...

Then what?

I've got a bad feeling about this

Oil isn't well, indeed

It's really not a big issue, coz the gubment found a way to turn bull$hit into oil.

SD_Scott wrote:It's really not a big issue, coz the gubment found a way to turn bull$hit into oil.

Heh?

SD_Scott wrote:It's really not a big issue, coz the gubment found a way to turn bull$hit into oil.

We're saved!

the MSM is really playing down the severity of the situation here.

HOW DARE THEY NOT FOLLOW THE PO DOOMERS SCRIPT! The idiots, don't they know we NEED THIS to happen? We've already bought heritage seeds fer christ's sake!! Next thing you know the housing bubble will keep growing!!

It's a goddam crisis right now, but you'd never know it by watching your TeeVee set...

I fear people are going to freeze this winter if they can't afford to pay, or if we run into supply problems...

Quietly prepare, because no matter what you say, most people including your loved ones are no't going to believe it could get THAT bad...but they'll surely appreciate your foresight if things DO get THAT bad..and if things don't get THAT bad, so what, you've got a little extra stashed, and it's probably not going to lose its value, and its stuff you will use in time anyway...

Code: Select all

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Shut-in Oil and Gas
Date         Percent of GOM Oil Shut-in Percent of GOM Gas Shut-in
============ ========================== ==========================
August 30    95.20                      87.99
August 31    91.45                      83.46
September 1  90.43                      78.66
September 2  88.53                      72.48
September 3  78.98                      57.80
September 4  No data reported           No data reported
September 5  69.57                      54.13
September 6  58.02                      41.06
September 7  57.37                      40.36
September 8  60.12                      40.20
September 9  59.88                      38.29
September 10 59.84                      38.21
September 11 No data reported           No data reported
September 12 57.38                      37.84
September 13 56.45                      37.20
September 14 56.25                      35.18
September 15 56.14                      34.11
September 16 56.06                      33.84
September 19 55.84                      33.75
September 20 58.49                      34.82
September 21 73.16                      47.13
September 22 91.93                      65.95
September 23 99.13                      72.04
September 24 100                        74.88
September 25 100                        80.47

edit: picky picky formatting

HOW DARE THEY NOT FOLLOW THE PO DOOMERS SCRIPT! The idiots, don't they know we NEED THIS to happen? We've already bought heritage seeds fer christ's sake!! Next thing you know the housing bubble will keep growing!!

Maybe you are being tongue in cheek I don't know, but if I'm reading the tone of your post correctly, you are a fool. You are the grashopper playing the fiddle...

Not many people with half a heart towards their fellow man would wish this to happen. Ridicule those who prepare. My grandparents knew how to prepare because they lived through the Great Depression and suffered mightily. Stories of lard sandwiches for lunch and dinner.

So go ahead. We'll be the ants.

wow BP, that chart really shows it all.

fossil_fuel wrote:wow BP, that chart really shows it all.

It's in the PDF in the first post of this thread. I know people don't follow links usually since it's too much effort so I used GNU Emacs to turn it into formatted BB code.

There's tons of other bad news in that PDF.

Oh, and did you hear that because of the call on IEA stocks and the member nations' responses, there apparently are no more ships available to charter refined product to the US?

OilsNotWell wrote:Oh, and did you hear that because of the call on IEA stocks and the member nations' responses, there apparently are no more ships available to charter refined product to the US?

Stop! You're scaring me.

Some of the lost oil production is somewhat being made up by the SPR, but since the refineries closest to the SPR are not operating, the SPR oil can not be used effectively.

This leaves imports to plug the gap. These may take a few weeks or so to get here, that is if it is possible to make up the difference by getting more imports from somewhere else.

I expect that we will see oil and gasoline, and even natural gas, inventories accumulate more slowly than the usual seasonal fall buidlup - or even decline. The real problems begin when there isn't enough product in the system to prevent localized shortages. This may happen very soon with natural gas.

Just my opinion.

I'd peg the probability of the insitution this winter of 'temporary' rationing of either NG or gasoline at about 25%, but it will probably be called something else, like...'temporary enforced conservation measures' or 'non-essential use curtailment' or some other such pandering drivel..