Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 12:37:25**

Was wondering the other day.. it seems like all our discussion is about peak oil as it pertains to energy -- but what about all the other things oil is used for? Plastics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, the list goes on and on.

One thing everyone pretty much agrees on is that the oil will literally "run out" one day. Yes, I know it's the decline that's the problem and it won't run out for good in our lfietimes -- but eventually, it will.

So that's what I was wondering about, what happens when it runs out for good. Is there any possible alternative to make plastics from? And drugs, pesticides, all that stuff?

And, does anyone know what percentage of oil goes to these non-energy uses? Is a shortage on the non-energy oil products not a problem until the far future, or will that happen sometime sooner on the downward slope?

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 12:42:06**

Remember thermal depolymerization?

Organic feedstock can be converted into oil.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 13:40:49**

Sixstrings wrote:Was wondering the other day.. it seems like all our discussion is about peak oil as it pertains to energy -- but what about all the other things oil is used for? Plastics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, the list goes on and on.

Yes, there are many plant sources of specific materials such as waxes, rubbers, and oils, as well as of hydrocarbons.

Many of these products were used in the past during war time when oil and other products weren't as plentiful.

Reference: "Edible and Useful Plants of Texas and the Southwest" by Delena Tull

Presently most of these plant sources aren't economic to produce because oil is so cheap.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 14:11:41**

Fantastic as plastic gets organic
http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/gr ... 17tbs.html

An Altona company's innovative biodegradable packaging has made Marks & Spencer chocolate boxes guilt free.

A revolution in green packaging is being launched from a head office in Altona, as leading British retailer Marks & Spencer has announced that this Christmas its entire Swiss chocolate range will be sold in an innovative Australian company's biodegradable plastic trays.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 14:34:28**

I forget the source of the quote (read it years ago) but...

"Anything made from hydrocarbons can be made from carbohydrates."

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 14:35:18**

Take a look at this chart from the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_p ... _pct_m.htm
Considering the percentage of oil consumption that is used in this category I would think that this is one of the last questions we will have to answer. What to replace highway and home heating fuel with is the first thing we need to be looking at.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 14:56:24**

vtsnowedin wrote:8) Take a look at this chart from the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_p ... _pct_m.htm
Considering the percentage of oil consumption that is used in this category I would think that this is one of the last questions we will have to answer. What to replace highway and home heating fuel with is the first thing we need to be looking at.

Yep, it's just a non-issue really. Our way of life will be so devastated by expensive and/or non-existent heating and transport oil products we won't be thinking of all the other products. There will be only the most basic economy, so only the most basic of products will be needed or wanted. Nobody will be making modern products like pharmaceuticals or esoteric polymers because there will be no way for anyone to afford them. I suppose it's possible there might be a few wealthy pockets of people having these products made for them, but most of us will have to do without.

In my opinion.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 15:03:28**

Is there any replacement for the non-fuel uses of oil? Yes of course. Figure it out boys.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 15:45:45**

The question here is whether or not we can make it more profitable than selling rich white women their own fat @sses back to them at $20 a bar...

pstarr wrote:

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 15:53:10**

Ludi wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:8) Take a look at this chart from the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_p ... _pct_m.htm
Considering the percentage of oil consumption that is used in this category I would think that this is one of the last questions we will have to answer. What to replace highway and home heating fuel with is the first thing we need to be looking at.

Yep, it's just a non-issue really. Our way of life will be so devastated by expensive and/or non-existent heating and transport oil products we won't be thinking of all the other products. There will be only the most basic economy, so only the most basic of products will be needed or wanted. Nobody will be making modern products like pharmaceuticals or esoteric polymers because there will be no way for anyone to afford them. I suppose it's possible there might be a few wealthy pockets of people having these products made for them, but most of us will have to do without.

In my opinion.

I don't think it is time for total despair just yet. As the biggest user and waster of oil we have the most room to cut back without it being the end of the world. We use about twenty million barrels of oil a day three quarters of that imported. Look at this other EIA chart.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_c ... _nus_a.htm
Notice how little we use on farms and the military and even more surprising railroads and ship bunkering. All of that can continue using just our domestic supplies for quite some time. The big change has to come out of over the road transportation both gas and diesel but there is plenty of room for improvement there both in vehicle efficiency and in trip avoidance. Could you not cut your driving by half if needed? couldn't any American if given a while to make the necessary adjustments.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:00:14**

vtsnowedin wrote:8) Take a look at this chart from the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_p ... _pct_m.htm
Considering the percentage of oil consumption that is used in this category I would think that this is one of the last questions we will have to answer. What to replace highway and home heating fuel with is the first thing we need to be looking at.

Huh.. so all the vast quantities of plastic and other "Miscellaneous" petroleum products only amounts to .5% of our oil use?

That surprises me.. we have a *lot* of plastic in the world, and yet it's insignificant compared to what we burn for fuel.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:18:25**

Sixstrings wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:8) Take a look at this chart from the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_p ... _pct_m.htm
Considering the percentage of oil consumption that is used in this category I would think that this is one of the last questions we will have to answer. What to replace highway and home heating fuel with is the first thing we need to be looking at.

Huh.. so all the vast quantities of plastic and other "Miscellaneous" petroleum products only amounts to .5% of our oil use? That surprises me.. we have a *lot* of plastic in the world, and yet it's insignificant compared to what we burn for fuel.

And if needed we could mine our landfills and get quite a bit of plastic back and recycle it.
And consider this. 9 million barrels of gas A DAY times 42 gal. per barrel times say 20 miles per gallon avg. American land yacht would give you 7560000000 miles driven each day divided among 300 million US citizens even though many don't drive and you get 25 miles per DAY for every American. I think we can improve on that.
But the other day the pundits were asked if a gas tax increase was in the offing and they were unanimous that it had no chance at all.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:41:33**

vtsnowedin wrote: Could you not cut your driving by half if needed? couldn't any American if given a while to make the necessary adjustments.

I have my doubts about "any American." I don't commute to a job. I could cut my driving to one trip a month. But I kind of doubt most Americans work at home. And aside from that, my work is dependent on a lot of other people driving around.

Haven't we talked about this a whole bunch on this board already? That our economy is based on people driving around? A lot? I'm not talking about "the end of the world" so don't jerkishly use that strawman. I'm talking about the end of the economy.

I can't remember what you do for paying work, so maybe you will be fine. Maybe you'll even be fine with no paying work at all. But ya know I kinda think most Americans depend on their jobs for their survival. Last I looked we didn't have a Sharing Economy in which things like food,clothing,shelter and pharmaceuticals were magically distributed to everyone for free (although I know some conservatives seem to believe in this magic Welfare State, it actually doesn't exist).

grump

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 16:54:10**

Ludi wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Could you not cut your driving by half if needed? couldn't any American if given a while to make the necessary adjustments.

I have my doubts about "any American." I don't commute to a job. I could cut my driving to one trip a month. But I kind of doubt most Americans work at home. And aside from that, my work is dependent on a lot of other people driving around.

Haven't we talked about this a whole bunch on this board already? That our economy is based on people driving around? A lot? I'm not talking about "the end of the world" so don't jerkishly use that strawman. I'm talking about the end of the economy. I can't remember what you do for paying work, so maybe you will be fine. Maybe you'll even be fine with no paying work at all. But ya know I kinda think most Americans depend on their jobs for their survival. Last I looked we didn't have a Sharing Economy in which things like food,clothing,shelter and pharmaceuticals were magically distributed to everyone for free (although I know some conservatives seem to believe in this magic Welfare State, it actually doesn't exist).

grump

Yes most Americans depend on their job and I commuted 100 plus miles a day for thirty plus years because it was the cheapest thing to do. If the price of gas goes to ten bucks a gallon and I'm still working I will go to work on Monday and stay there for the week and get a room within walking distance of the job. Pitch a tent if I have to. We have built suburbia because we could cheaply and efficiently. Let energy costs rise and many will have to move back to within walking distance of the job. Chinese style dorms at the factory may have to be built as zoning has segregated plants long distances from any housing but that is all part of what we can do as oil gets scarce and is preferable to just throwing up our hands and waiting for the eviction notice.

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 17:06:10**

I'm just not buying it that most Americans will camp in City Park in order to keep their jobs. You have a lot more faith in our economy than I have. People don't seem to be adjusting very well to the crappy economy we have right now, I'm not convinced they will be investing in landfill mining and plant-based hydrocarbons when it gets even worse. But I guess, maybe, you don't think it will get worse with more expensive oil?

Dunno. Just not convinced is all. Wish I were. Just feeling kind of doomy today. It's probably this sinus infection I'm fighting (and nobody is showing up on my doorstep with free antibiotics).

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 17:20:04**

There is no great replacement, but oil for chemical purposes is a small slice of the pie and not a first priority thing to worry about. Oil will be available for chemical uses for a long time. Even if it's EROEI is 200% negative, it can still be mined for chemical feedstocks.

Though because it's already mined for energy with a positive EROEI, this subsidies the prices for many chemical feed stocks and makes plastics more affordable. So plastics and other chemicals will become more expensive and that is a problem. Fertilizer costs will continue to climb. But the biggest elephant in the room is "oil as fuel" since that's what it's mainly used for and the lifeblood that keeps society moving.

...Lack of petrol meant the end of the war and the end of the Third Reich.
http://fossil.energy.gov/aboutus/histor ... story.html
http://www.americanforeignrelations.com ... power.html

Posted: **Wed 08 Dec 2010, 17:27:04**

steam_cannon wrote: But the biggest elephant in the room is "oil as fuel" since that's what it's mainly used for and the lifeblood that keeps society moving.

You don't think we can all just camp out at the factory and it will be ok?

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