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And here comes the edge of the plateau.....

Article wrote:Iranian oil field
Supplies are expected to wane among members of oil cartel Opec
Global oil supplies will grow more slowly than expected over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted.
Spare capacity in the world system would fall to “minimal levels” in 2013 amid rising demand from developing countries and supply problems, it said.
As a result the IEA cut its supply forecast by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 95.33 million bpd.Iranian oil field
Supplies are expected to wane among members of oil cartel Opec

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I don't think the plateau will hold up till 2013, I'd rather say 2010-2011.

Bush: "Alright call of the invasion. It's not even worth it now. They're out of oil too."

Drifter wrote:

cipi604 wrote:I don't think the plateau will hold up till 2013, I'd rather say 2010-2011.

Interesting that you say that. Back in 2004-2005, many board members here were predicting that everything would seriously start going to hell around 2010. Very prophetic.

I trust in Chris Skrebowski.

kublikhan wrote:Bush: "Alright call of the invasion. It's not even worth it now. They're out of oil too."

That would be a smart play by any government that has lots of oil.... just announce to the world that the oil production is dropping quick and slowly ramp down as if the supply was running dry.... Avoids geopolitical warfare.

From the Wall Street Journal, here reprinted on cattlenetwork.com

--> LINK <--

9/4/2008 7:55:00 AM
Oil-Supply Data Probed For Manipulation

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Commodity-market regulators are investigating whether energy-market players are injecting false data into the marketplace to influence perceptions about crude-oil supply and demand, people familiar with the probe say.

Among other things, regulators are concerned that companies may be reporting inventory levels that benefit their own trading positions but that may not be accurate, people familiar with the regulators' thinking say.

Unexpected drops in oil inventories reported each Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration can spark price spikes on the main oil futures benchmark on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A company could theoretically underreport barrels in its tanks, for example, at a key hub to suggest oil is scarcer than it really is, and then sell its physical oil at a premium when oil prices jump on misleading news.

Another concern is whether companies conduct some physical oil sales and purchases solely to influence short-term pricing on oil futures markets.

[...]

EIA says its not aware of any investigation.

Business News

I wonder if they're going to check out whether many countries and companies overreport reserves?

The companies, to keep stock prices up, and the countries, to keep proportional quotas up.

Oil Companies Vie to Plug Skills Gap That Threatens Supply

Falling raw material and equipment costs in a slowing world economy offer an opportunity for oil and gas companies to solve the problems of rising costs and delays at major projects, but the industry again finds itself confronting a longstanding enemy - a shortage of people with the skills and experience to lead these developments.

If efforts to plug the skills gap don't succeed, senior industry executives say oil companies' ability to tap new and challenging hydrocarbon resources fast enough to meet demand may have already have reached its limit.

rigzone

Similar story in electric generation and transmission.

From NERC (North American Electric Reliability Council)2007 Long Term Reliability Assessment:

Finding 4: Aging workforce presents challenges to future reliability Industry action is urgently needed to meet the expected 25 percent increase in demand for engineering professionals by 2015. Enhanced recruitment and outreach efforts through consortia, partnerships with local colleges, and increasing R&D support of university programs are vital for developing future industry talent.

NERC

Cry me a river. I'm not sure how many kids right out of school would feel proud to tell people they work in the fossil fuel industry. You'd think that generation would be more concerned about the longterm impact of climate change than any other, since they are surely going to be facing it in their lifetime. Bring on the green collar jobs.

mos6507 wrote:I'm not sure how many kids right out of school would feel proud to tell people they work in the fossil fuel industry.

With all the upcoming layoffs, I'm sure there will be people interested in getting whatever job they can. The oil companies will just have to recruit smart engineering graduates and give them whatever training they need to become productive in the oil industry.

RSFB wrote:

mos6507 wrote:I'm not sure how many kids right out of school would feel proud to tell people they work in the fossil fuel industry.

With all the upcoming layoffs, I'm sure there will be people interested in getting whatever job they can. The oil companies will just have to recruit smart engineering graduates and give them whatever training they need to become productive in the oil industry.

I think the problem is that we (the US) are not graduating very many smart engineers. Our primary and secondary math and science eduction is pretty poor so kids are not opting into these fields. It will take decades to change that. That is why they are looking to import foreign brainpower.

mos6507 wrote:Cry me a river. I'm not sure how many kids right out of school would feel proud to tell people they work in the fossil fuel industry. You'd think that generation would be more concerned about the longterm impact of climate change than any other, since they are surely going to be facing it in their lifetime. Bring on the green collar jobs.

I'll feel proud to tell people what I'm doing with the money I'm making if I get the chance to work in the business. I'll be putting the money into restoring agriculturally-destroyed land.

It should also be pointed out that drilling and exploring for new fossil fuels does little to the environment other than the direct landscape (and advancing technology reduces that every year). Where GCC comes into play is how the FF are used. It's just like an opium producer. The opium can be used for either heroin or medicine. If a opium producer sells it to an anonymous buyer and that buyer uses it for heroin, is that the fault of the producer? Of course not. Just as in the case with opium (or guns or vehicles, etc.) a producer of FF (I mean the engineers, geologists, workers, etc.) can't be held liable if the end user uses the product for gasoline instead of medicine or useful plastics (such as in hospitals, schools and such). This is especially the case when the geologists, such as myself, do everything in their power to drive people away from cars. Put the blame on GCC where it belongs.

Producing FF doesn't cause GCC; burning FF does.

Given that any energy shortages resulting from decreased oil/NG production will be replaced with coal consumption it really more a matter of picking between a pollution source and a worse pollution source. Given the choice between economic downgrade and flooding all the low lying areas of the world, the majority of the global population will turn a blind eye towards GCC.

Whether one considers this an immoral position or not won't change the future. Ignoring the pressures to support industrial growth won't change the outcome. IMO, no force on earth will change the swing from oil/NG to coal as PO encroaches upon the global economy. Thus I don't join the debates on man-made GCC or impractical ideas on how to prevent it. It's wasted breath IMHO. The best the world can hope for is improved technology/economics for CO2 sequestration. The best that those who worry about GCC can hope for is the petroleum industry finding/developing more NG reserves in order to slow the swing to coal.