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Has anyone read Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak yet?

Judging from the reviews at Amazon.com, this one is rather more pessimistic than the first one was.

Thou shalt review it and post in the Reviews Forum.

And thou shalt note that there's every reason for him to BE more pessimistic....

Leanan wrote:Has anyone read Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak yet?

Judging from the reviews at Amazon.com, this one is rather more pessimistic than the first one was.

I have purchased the book and just read it. This is a work narrowly focused on energy geology with only minimal discussion of possible social, economic, and geopolitical consequences. This is not a criticism, it is a very good petroleum geology book for the lay reader with a nice historical perspective. Technical issues in exploration and secondary recovery are well addressed. Thomas Gold's abiotic hypothesis is very well debunked. Being academic in tone, it is neither optimistic or pessimistic.

Kenneth Deffeyes is also old enough that he is not likely to personally experience the worst ravages of the post peak oil world. In contrast, young lawyer and blogger Matt Savinar views his entire future prospects as defined by peak oil. Savinar's analysis of some non-petroleum energy issues is more intensely focused on survival and may be more accurate than Deffeyes'. For example, Deffeyes takes an almost cornucopian view of uranium resources by pointing out a vast quantity of very low grade ores exists. Savinar on the other hand, states that mining low grade uranium ores has a negative EROI. In other words, such mining activities might be useful for aspiring bomb makers, but do not constitute an energy resource. My gut feeling is that Savinar is right and Deffeyes simply neglected to consider the energy cost of uranium mining.

Deffeyes' new book is a worthwhile addition to one's library, but far from a complete review of post peak issues.

Thanks for the review!

I noticed that about Deffeyes' first book - that for a scientist, he didn't seem to have a real grasp of the laws of thermodynamics, and how they are likely to impact our search for alternate energy. But then, he's a geologist, not a physicist or an engineer, so that may explain it.

i like deffeyes stuff. he concentrates on a narrow specific subject. oil depletion and oil discovery/formation etc.

he rightly refrains from saying 'We're all gonna die!', because no one really knows what will happen.

He has said in the past that Peak Oil will cause prices to go up and will cause a recession, but thats a fairly easy thing to predict. No one can predict other more general effects.

We need more people like Deffeyes. His credentials and experience in the oil industry and his love for the oil industry tell me he is a man of integrity and a man to trust. If deffeyes thinks Peak Oil is 2005, then i am persuaded by that argument.

I also like Bakhtiari (spelling?). He comes across as a very genuine man in the same sort of mould as deffeyes. He says 2006-2007 with his WOCAP model.

I think they are correct.

one simple thing makes me trust deffeys and guys like bakhtiari more than guys like savinar. experience, and wisdom that comes with being alive for many decades.

too often in this world, older people are discarded as useless, but more often than not, they are the ones who have the most wisdom.

savinar, for me, simply does not have the credentials of deffeyes. deffeyes has worked as an insider in the industry for decades. his dad was one of the most famous 'oil-guys' ever. he knows his stuff inside out and back to front and has hands on experience. that is priceless.

as far as i can tell, savinar read die-off on the internet and started a crusade. admirable, but definetly lacking in substance.

I enjoy Deffeyes, because he so clearly loves the oil industry, doomed as it is, and because he has a great sense of humor that comes through in his writing.

However, I do think leaving out the limitations of alternate energy is a serious flaw. It doesn't necessarily mean we're all gonna die, but it does mean we're not going to continue our current lifestyle, only with hydrogen SUVs and solar-powered iPods.

David Goodstein covers the thermodynamics of alternate energy sources very thoroughly in
Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. He's got a PhD in physics and is a professor at CalTech, so that's not surprising. And unlike Heinberg, he believes nuclear will be a necessity (if it's not too late already - which it might be).

It would be nice to have one book cover it all. Have to check out Matt's sometime; I haven't read it yet.

linlithgowoil,

I share your opinions here.

I've just finished Deffeyes latest book - a good read, short, witty, some interesting stories but nothing particularly new. I kind of got the impression he was writing a book to sell rather than a book to teach, not that that's a criticism. Certainly agree that he knows his stuff and speaks with far more authority than most of the subject.

I haven't read Deffeyes second book and I'm not sure if I'm going to rush to get it. His first book had an interesting beginning but by the second or third chapter I found it hard to remain interested. Why? He jumped straight into geology without explaining some of the important terms. Perhaps this book is excellent for someone who has at least some background in geology. I've also read David Goodstein's Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil Again with this I've found the beginning and end parts very interesting. However there's a long and boring explanation of entropy. This subject might be connected to our upcoming energy crisis but it didn't appeal to me. I'm a layperson who is very interested in the subject of PeakOil. If I could create a book I would:

1. Introduce the reader to the history of oil production in the U.S. and
other countries
2. Devote a section to the energy crisis of the 70's for those of us who
weren't around to know what was going on
3. Devote a section to oil extraction methods. Explain different parts of an
oil rig. Perhaps a short paragraph or two about the people who work
on the oil rigs.
4. Introduce geology. Rather than getting into the nitty gritty simply
explain the important parts(ie. types of rocks, sediment, why there's
a window of oil producing rocks at a certain depth etc.)
5. Show the reader how oil is an excellent indicator of the health of the
economy. Leeb's book The Oil Factor did an excellet job
at this.
6. Colorful graphs of things like proven oil reserves of all oil producing
countries, how much they've extracted to date, areas of the world
where it is impossible to extract oil,
7. Yes of course a history of M.K. Hubbert. This part I must say that every
book I've read so far does a good job at telling the reader who he was,
what he did and what important contribution he gave the world.

I would like to read a book that is slanted towards the common average "Joe" like myself. As a flight instructor I teach my students subjects from simple to complex. If I don't use this approach the student will lose interest and become frustrated as the training progresses. I would like to read a book that is simple to read, explains terms well, uses eye catching colorful graphs. Is there a book out there that does this or should I start researching this subject and write my own book? Any suggestions?

I haven't read Deffeyes second book and I'm not sure if I'm going to rush to get it. His first book had an interesting beginning but by the second or third chapter I found it hard to remain interested. Why? He jumped straight into geology without explaining some of the important terms. Perhaps this book is excellent for someone who has at least some background in geology. I've also read David Goodstein's Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil Again with this I've found the beginning and end parts very interesting. However there's a long and boring explanation of entropy. This subject might be connected to our upcoming energy crisis but it didn't appeal to me. I'm a layperson who is very interested in the subject of PeakOil. If I could create a book I would:

1. Introduce the reader to the history of oil production in the U.S. and
other countries
2. Devote a section to the energy crisis of the 70's for those of us who
weren't around to know what was going on
3. Devote a section to oil extraction methods. Explain different parts of an
oil rig. Perhaps a short paragraph or two about the people who work
on the oil rigs.
4. Introduce geology. Rather than getting into the nitty gritty simply
explain the important parts(ie. types of rocks, sediment, why there's
a window of oil producing rocks at a certain depth etc.)
5. Show the reader how oil is an excellent indicator of the health of the
economy. Leeb's book The Oil Factor did an excellet job
at this.
6. Colorful graphs of things like proven oil reserves of all oil producing
countries, how much they've extracted to date, areas of the world
where it is impossible to extract oil,
7. Yes of course a history of M.K. Hubbert. This part I must say that every
book I've read so far does a good job at telling the reader who he was,
what he did and what important contribution he gave the world.

I would like to read a book that is slanted towards the common average "Joe" like myself. As a flight instructor I teach my students subjects from simple to complex. If I don't use this approach the student will lose interest and become frustrated as the training progresses. I would like to read a book that is simple to read, explains terms well, uses eye catching colorful graphs. Is there a book out there that does this or should I start researching this subject and write my own book? Any suggestions?

Geez Wallygater, it sounds like you're ready to write a book now. Don't forget the mega die off section at the end though. That's key.

I hope Deffeyes 2nd isn't just a rehash; I'll read it though:)

It wasn't that dry, Wallygator, or hard to follow; christ you're a pilot, you've gotta read more!! Har har!


That bit about the dioff section was good LOL

Drew

Ok, it's no longer 'current' because it happened 10 minutes ago, but...

Kenneth Deffeyes was just interviewed on the 11 o'clock news by Channel 5, a local news station here in the SF Bay Area. His book, "Beyond Oil: ... Hubbert's Peak", was shown and he sounded really good, mentioning that a depression larger than the '30's is just around the corner if Peak Oil hits on Thanksgicing Day.

What he didn't mention in the few minutes he was on was that this coming depression will not only be more catastrophic but will last considerably longer than the others.

Interestingly, the news show was peppered with TV commercials advertising Dodge Ram SUV's and the rest of the rediculous looking and fuel inefficient personal vehicles offered by Dodge.

EastBay

Deffeyes still alive ??
Last time, I read his articles. He mentioned that he will pop some pills and live to see Peak Oil event.

I just imagine what he think now. At least he manage to see Peak Oil events.
He must be very happy to be vindicated. His grand daughter Emma at age 6 must not be very pleased to know that. No more PlayStation, no functioning cell phones (can still be use as alarm), no pampers, no plastics toys, no V10 turbo SUV, no cosmetics, no big house, no cheap food , no paper shifting job, no air-con..

Oh Wait , her grandfather must have tonnes of $$ from his old days ,she can buy those thing at exorbitant price.

Interestingly, the news show was peppered with TV commercials advertising Dodge Ram SUV's and the rest of the rediculous looking and fuel inefficient personal vehicles offered by Dodge.

PERFECT, eastbay! If one sheeple gets the point from this juxtaposition, it'll be well worth it!

So Deffeyes is still predicting peak oil on Thanksgiving Day this year?

Leanan wrote:So Deffeyes is still predicting peak oil on Thanksgiving Day this year?

188 days & counting...