evilgenius wrote:I can see the point of Trump's confidence. The next phase of industrial evolution in the US will be done on the back of AI. The US will dominate, but not alongside the cost of labor. The thing is, it takes a while for some things to be adopted.
AI will definitely change finance, legal and other professional aspects of the economy before it will replace the cheapest sort of labor. But once it becomes economically viable to replace that labor, it will be done. Doing that is, after all, a one time cost. It's just going to take whatever arrangements which are essential within a vibrant economy for the laggards to come along. Nursing home robots may not arrive as quickly as certain aspects of nursing home work, like lifting people into the tub, may become automated. Belt sorting will take innovation in articulated limbs, which AI can use for package manipulation. Same goes for berry picking.
So, there is reason for hope. Trump can engage in anti-globalist decoupling from the Asian manufacturing sector, because labor will become a thing of the past. Yep, and I'm still waiting for my personal jetpack, and flying car. The speed of change has been getting faster. It may be good enough to hop on board now. But the change may not reach the level necessary to rely upon AI. It may get close, but if this is rushed...
Yeah, so it's like throwing from your own end zone when you are up by a touchdown close to the end of the game. It may be a risk not worth taking, for only as much reward as you would get if you let the current way stay in place, only that it wouldn't mature for a few more years. Because, right now, American Finance is still fairly essential to whatever trading success happens between the two regions. And American Finance is undergoing a cost cutting revolution.
Speaking of AI
Its why Trump is targeting Huawei
AI is the brains, 5G is the data interconnect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVbLBF0ramMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gysKE3POUv0Bad news is the current forms of "AI" so-called deep machine learning, without other major breakthroughs, will not bring about the sort of abundance, UBI, "no more need for human labor/thought/effort" that you are idealizing about...
Turns out it is 10 times as hard to go from 90% self driving car to 100% self driving (fully Level 5 autonomy) than it was to go from 0% to the first 90%... and you can forget about self flying airlines, Boeing couldn't even get the 737MAX MCAS issue fixed after almost a year, and the flying public will never trust them on an airplane without a cockpit or pilots. True a lot of jobs have already been automated away and still a lot more will be, but most of this has nothing or little to do with "AI"... McDonalds installing Kiosks at every site has nothing to do with advancements in AI, most of these automation even like the amazon go casherless/cashless stores have nothing to do with 'deep learning' or 'machine learning' applications and its questionable if even ML in its current form is even a true AI, it is not any close to AGI.
if people really want to prepare for the jobless society Trump is not your man, Andrew yang was on the AI bandwagon when Trump during first campaign was still talking about bring jobs back and never even heard of Ai :
https://www.yang2020.com/https://macdailynews.com/2019/01/07/way ... ver-exist/https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/ub ... g-in-2018/https://medium.com/@karpathy/alphago-in ... 7718cb95a5People on here 15 years ago reading LATOC and getting too exciting about the coming Peak Oil crash are now on the AI -> Singularity bandwagon?
hate to break it to you but not gonna happen anytime soon, not within the next few decades.
