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US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 12:18:47

Here is an interesting article on what likely lead up to the accidental shoot down.


I do not belive it was an accident. This case is not that simple.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 12:24:59

Does anyone have any thoughtful insight on what the Iraqi resolution that the USA should remove troops from Iraq soil means in reality?

I’ve heard it referred to as a “meaningless symbolic gesture” but with no explanation.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 14:01:13

The Iraqi legislature has a majority of "shia" political groups, which in turn are mostly controlled by Iran.

The shia legislators voted to demand the US leave, while the Sunni and Kurdish legislators voted against.

Recently, there have been months of street demonstrations by a new protest movement which opposes Iranian control of the Iraqi legislature. These street protests include some shia groups who are not controlled by Iran, and they forced the Iraqi PM to resign about a month ago......he is now heading up a powerless "caretaker" government until a new PM can be chosen.

The resignation of the PM means Iraq does not currently have a government. The PM did ask the US to leave, but he is no longer really the PM.

Once they elect a new PM, this issue may be revisited. If the new PM demands the US go, presumably the US will have to go.

Cheers!
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 14:09:24

Thanks.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 14:58:45

Yonnipun said:
I do not belive it was an accident. This case is not that simple.


Iran has admitted to shooting it down, but they say by accident. It would be more likely that someone in the IRG was after someone who was on board. There were a number of Canadians on that plane. Tourists in the middle of a war zone? Not likely!
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 15:24:44

This has been discussed at length elsewhere.

They were Iranians carrying Canadian and other passports. Mostly they were in Iran in holiday (which one?) visiting family.

Not “tourists” but ex-patriots with Iranian family connections.

Much like me going back to Canada in the summer.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Cog » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 15:34:07

The most logical explanation is that the Iranian missile units were on alert and expecting a counter-attack by US forces. Perhaps he was ill-trained or panicked when he saw this blip suddenly appear and launched the AA missiles. Fog of war and all that. Remember the Vincinnes attack on an Iranian commercial jet? Same sort of deal.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 16:11:27

BBC wrote:Demands for justice after Iran's plane admission

Oleksiy Danilov: "We already had enough to show...what really happened here"

Iran's admission it "unintentionally" shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet has sparked demands for justice for the 176 people on board who were killed.

The calls were led by Ukraine's president and the prime minister of Canada, which lost 57 nationals.

Social media footage has shown protests in Iran, some of them calling for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to resign.

The plane was shot down on Wednesday, hours after Iran had struck two air bases housing US forces in Iraq.

Those missile strikes were Iran's response to the US killing of senior Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani. He died in a drone strike in Baghdad on 3 January.

Iran had initially denied reports its missiles had brought down the plane, with one spokesman accusing Western nations of "lying and engaging in psychological warfare".

Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752, en route to Kyiv, came down near Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran shortly after take-off. Victims included dozens of Iranians and Canadians, as well as nationals from Ukraine, the UK, Afghanistan and Germany.
What has the reaction been to Iran's admission?

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has demanded Iran "bring the guilty to the courts", repatriate the remains of the victims, pay compensation, give total access to Ukrainian officials and issue an apology through diplomatic channels.

He later spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and said he had been assured that "all persons involved in this air disaster will be brought to justice".

Trudeau: "We need full clarity on how such a horrific tragedy could have occurred"

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also spoke with the Iranian president.

Mr Trudeau said he was "outraged and furious" and had told Mr Rouhani that there must be a full investigation with "full clarity on how such a horrific tragedy could have occurred".

Mr Trudeau said: "Canada will not rest until we get the accountability, justice and closure the families deserve... they are hurt, angry and grieving and they want answers."

He said Mr Rouhani had made a commitment to de-escalation and added that Canadian crash investigators were due to arrive in Tehran shortly.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted video of the protests in Iran, saying: "The voice of the Iranian people is clear. They are fed up with the regime's lies, corruption, ineptitude, and brutality of the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards] under Khamenei's kleptocracy. We stand with the Iranian people who deserve a better future."

UK PM Boris Johnson said Iran's admission was an "important first step" and that de-escalation was now essential.
What has Iran's military admitted?

The admission came in a statement read on state TV on Saturday morning.

It said flight PS752 had turned towards a "sensitive military centre" of the Revolutionary Guards, the force set up to defend the country's Islamic system, and had a "flying posture and altitude of an enemy target".

Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander, said a missile operator had acted independently and alone, mistaking the plane for a "cruise missile" as there had been reports that such missiles had been fired at Iran.

"He had 10 seconds to decide. He could have decided to strike or not to strike and under such circumstances he took the wrong decision," Gen Hajizadeh said.

"He was obliged to make contact and get verification. But apparently, his communications system had some disruptions."

Gen Hajizadeh said the military would upgrade its systems to prevent such "mistakes" in the future.

He said he had "wished he was dead" after being told of the missile strike.

Gen Hajizadeh also said a request had been made for a no-fly zone in the area before the incident but, for reasons that are unclear, this was rejected.

He said he had informed the authorities about what had happened on Wednesday, raising questions about why Iran had denied involvement for so long.
What have Iran's leaders said?

Ayatollah Khamenei said there was "proof of human error" and that he had asked "relevant authorities to take necessary measures to prevent" such an incident happening again.

President Rouhani said: "Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake." He vowed to prosecute those responsible.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif apologised to the families of the victims but laid part of the blame on the US. "Human error at a time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to [this] disaster," he said.

Iran's ambassador to the UK, Hamid Baeidinejad, apologised for sharing "wrong findings" about the crash. He had earlier said Iran was "confident" that a missile had not been launched.

"I conveyed the official findings... that [a] missile could not be fired and hit the Ukrainian plane at that period of time," he said. "I apologise."

BBC chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet says the Iranian leaders' admission is highly unusual and comes at a crucial moment. Iran has decided it has to own this disaster to avoid triggering another war of words with the West or further angering its own people, she says.
How have Iranian citizens reacted?

Some video footage on social media has shown protests in central Tehran, with people calling for resignations and accusing officials of dishonesty.

Protests were reported at the Sharif and Amir Kabir universities.
Vigils were held in Tehran on Saturday for the victims of the crash

Some demonstrators chanted for the resignation of the commander in chief - Ayatollah Khamenei.

The semi-official Fars news agency carried a rare report of the anti-government unrest, saying up to 1,000 people had gathered, chanting slogans against leaders and tearing up pictures of Soleimani.

A number of social media users asked why Iranian officials had not accepted responsibility earlier, appearing only to do so after international pressure.

One wrote: "Your mistake was inadvertent. Your lie was intentional. People should not be lied to under the pretext of expediency."

Some users changed profile pictures to black to mourn the loss of the people on the plane.

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political scientist and former university professor based in Tehran, said it was difficult to see how officials could escape from this as "just about everyone has lied during the past three days".
Has Ukraine accepted the explanations?

Several issues continue to cause anger. Ukraine International Airlines vice president Igor Sosnovsky said Iran should have closed the airport at the time, saying it was "absolutely irresponsible" not to do so.

Ukraine International Airlines president: ''No more insinuations''

There was also no warning about any potential threat, he said.

The airline expressed anger at the suggestion the plane may have veered off course, saying it was within the flight path designated by the Iranian airport dispatcher.

A statement later on Saturday from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation, reported by the Tasnim news agency, clarified that there was no proof the plane had deviated.


BBC
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 17:04:17

shortonoil wrote:
Yonnipun said:
I do not belive it was an accident. This case is not that simple.


Iran has admitted to shooting it down, but they say by accident. It would be more likely that someone in the IRG was after someone who was on board. There were a number of Canadians on that plane. Tourists in the middle of a war zone? Not likely!

As if paranoia and conspiracy theories worked well for the world in general. That approach has failed miserably for you in economic predictions, year after year. So why not be wrong elsewhere too? It's not like you have a credible track record re predictions to defend or anything.

Meanwhile, in the real world, let's pretend that in the military, mistakes never occur.

Because Occam's razor doesn't exist. And we have NO examples of military screw-ups. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 18:23:19

It is a war.
So I am not surprised that some friendly fire may take place.
Nothing to fret about or be amused with.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 18:37:19

shortonoil wrote:
Yonnipun said:
I do not belive it was an accident. This case is not that simple.


Iran has admitted to shooting it down, but they say by accident. It would be more likely that someone in the IRG was after someone who was on board. There were a number of Canadians on that plane. Tourists in the middle of a war zone? Not likely!


Well,perhaps they did really shot it down by accident.

Or they shot it because it was an American allies plane.
And claim innocent but wanted to send some mesagge.


Like when Americans & their bitches bombed us in '99,they "accidentally" bombed the Chinese embassy,killing their diplomats. They claimed their maps weren't updated and they wanted to shoot another building.

But in reality they sent a message to China.


Also, I have read that it is possible to fiddle with 737 systems from distance. How the hell they did not recognize the plane?
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 19:12:11

Yonnipun wrote:Also, I have read that it is possible to fiddle with 737 systems from distance. How the hell they did not recognize the plane?

Easy.
They had maybe 10-15 seconds to decide what to do.
Not enough of time to "fiddle".
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 22:29:52

The U.S. had wanted blood since the Dubya admin.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 23:08:05

Yonnipun wrote:Also, I have read that it is possible to fiddle with 737 systems from distance. How the hell they did not recognize the plane?


All I can think of with statements like this is: "Release the LONG-FORM birth certificate!"

Just take off the tinfoil hat and find something else to theorize over.

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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 00:58:26

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Yonnipun wrote: How the hell they did not recognize the plane?

Easy.
They had maybe 10-15 seconds to decide what to do.


Its not like this was some new event that the anti-aircraft battery had never seen before that required a split second decision.

The Ukrainian plane was taking off from the airport along the established flight path regularly used by planes taking off from the airport. Hundreds of planes took off and ascended along this flight path every single day.

You'd think after hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of flights took off and landed at the Tehran airport over the years and followed this exact same flight path as they climbed up from the runway, that the folks in the missile battery might have figured out there is an airport nearby with flights taking off every so often.

AND the Ukrainian airlines flight was fitted with a radio transponder that was constantly broadcasting its location and its identity as a unarmed passenger jet. Again, you'd think an anti-aircraft facility, especially one located near an airport, would check on things like that.

Personally, I think this plane was targeted by the Iranians. I was watching a German news show and the commentator there said the plane was most likely intentionally shot down but that Trump and other world leaders were giving the Iranians "an exit ramp" by speculating that the missile strike might have been an accident in an attempt to de-escalate the situation. And, after days of idiotic lies about mechanical failure, the Iranians finally took the "exit ramp" that Trump was giving them and are now admitting they shot it down.

Thats probably the best we can hope for from Iran. They've admitted they did it and they say they will punish the idiots who shot down the Ukrainian jet.

But its not over yet----once again there are crowds of people out in the streets in Tehran, demanding the Mullahs step down. Now the pro-democracy demonstrators are demanding Khamenei quit because he and his government have been lying about the missile attack on the civilian plane.

Iranian-protesters-demand-Khamenei-quit-over-plane-downing

And now Trump is tweeting his support for the pro-democracy Iranian demonstrators who are seeking the fall of the Grand Ayatollah for his role in the coverup and the downing of the plane.

Cheers!
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 05:30:04

Plantagenet wrote:The Ukrainian plane was taking off from the airport along the established flight path regularly used by planes taking off from the airport. Hundreds of planes took off and ascended along this flight path every single day.

All true but it was night, commander could be sleepy or disoriented after a nap, operator could be new and inexperienced, transponder (or receiver on AA battery) could malfunction for a minute or so, there could be false reports about coming American retaliation, airport is an obvious target in such retaliation as airstrips are between priority targets etc.
All this probably resulted in wrong decision.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 07:20:16

Plantagenet"
But its not over yet----once again there are crowds of people out in the streets in Tehran, demanding the Mullahs step down. Now the pro-democracy demonstrators are demanding Khamenei quit because he and his government have been lying about the missile attack on the civilian plane.

And it has been pointed out that now the Mullahs don't have Suleimanni to put down the riots.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Cog » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 08:34:01

ralfy wrote:The U.S. had wanted blood since the Dubya admin.


How many wars has Trump started versus how many Obama started?

One person who won't be killing Americans again is General Crispy Critter.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 16:18:01

I read that there's a power struggle in Iran between the Mullahs and the IRGC. The IRGC has a lot of economic power and have been lately looking for political power as well, which the Mullahs see as threat to status quo.

After Soleimani's death the regime in Iran arrested some 40 IRGC officers loyal to Soleimani.

IRGC was behind the shooting down of the Ukrainian jet. Perhaps it was internal politics done to put pressure on the Mullah regime?

Millions seems to be protesting in Iran again against the Mullahs and the IRGC. The Mullahs now need the IRGC again to crack down on the protests.
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Re: US vs. IRAN: There will be blood

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 12 Jan 2020, 16:19:55

The Iranian mullahs have resorted to shooting anti-government demonstrators again in an attempt to quell anti-government protests.

anti-government-protests-tehran-turn-bloody

So much for the claim by the Ds that killing Solimanni would unite all the Iranians. They were wrong, as usual.

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