[Newfie]

Reuter’s now saying that “US officials” claim US satellites detected 2 missiles being launched shortly before the crash.

Oooopsies!

[jedrider]

That's the equivalent of shooting oneself in the foot I suppose. These heightened tensions serve no purpose.

[Newfie]

Shooting your self in the foot then denying it with a hole in your pants.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in Iran. The psychology. I would think the Iranian regime will be looking kind of foolish back at home, once the news gets out. That could work in different ways, but likely not to strengthen their position. Which could mean that they now be pressed to take an ever harder stance with the US. Or that they could retreat and try to get domestic affairs under control.

Trump seems to be playing this who affair cooly, if the current trend continues it will be a huge gift to his campaign. He still has time to blow it, let’s hope not.

Just my idle speculation.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Shooting your self in the foot then denying it with a hole in your pants.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in Iran. The psychology. I would think the Iranian regime will be looking kind of foolish back at home, once the news gets out. That could work in different ways, but likely not to strengthen their position. Which could mean that they now be pressed to take an ever harder stance with the US. Or that they could retreat and try to get domestic affairs under control.

Trump seems to be playing this who affair cooly, if the current trend continues it will be a huge gift to his campaign. He still has time to blow it, let’s hope not.

Just my idle speculation.

It looks like killing one general have unleashed a chain of events where remaining Iranians will kill each other.
Stampede during burial ceremony, shot down airliner and also there are reports of a bus falling down in mountain upon returning people from some national ceremony.
But many Iranians can view this airliner shooting favourably because about 80 or so of Canadians and few Brits were also killed and these are nearly as good as dead Americans would be.

[Cog]

Those Brits and Canadians had Muslim names so they most likely originally from Iran.

[Newfie]

^ Almost exclusively so.

I think the events of this week will shake Iran up a good bit. How it settles? Another story to be told.

[rockdoc123]

Those Brits and Canadians had Muslim names so they most likely originally from Iran.

The Canadian passengers were all of Iranian origin. Not surprising as Canada and the UK were destinations for a lot of Iranians who fled the country when the Shah was deposed and subsequently many of their relatives have followed them. There are a few small communities of Persians throughout the country. It's funny how folks seem to equate "Iranian" with "fundamentalist" or "terrorist". I know a few who many years ago I played rugby with. One had fled the country to attend university in the UK when the Shah was overthrown as his father was one of the generals. A nicer guy who couldn't give a stuff about religion you will never meet. Always a few fanatics who wreak it for everyone.

[vtsnowedin]

Way to make your brain drain permanent. It would be a real kicker if they took out a couple of there own deep embedded spies before they ever got into a place with sensitive information.

[Plantagenet]

There is political split in Iran between people who support the Islamic theocracy and people who don't.

In the last year the Iranian regime killed over a thousand people who were demonstrating in Iran for regime change. Gen Solemanni and his Al Quds force did the shooting.

I believe the Iranian regime shot down the airliner on purpose to kill ex-pat Iranians who also don't support the current regime. The plane was still climbing just after take-off and was only a few miles away from the airport. The fact that US intelligence detected two missiles being fired at the jet shows it wasn't an accidental firing, and the proximity to the airport makes it very unlikely that the plane could've been confused with an incoming US military attack.

The Iranians are denying that any missiles were fired at all. Clearly they are lying.


I suspect that the Iranian regime intentionally shot down the Ukrainian airliner to kill a large number of Iranian expats who mostly don't support the current government of Iran.

[tita]

I believe the Iranian regime shot down the airliner on purpose to kill ex-pat Iranians who also don't support the current regime. The plane was still climbing just after take-off and was only a few miles away from the airport. The fact that US intelligence detected two missiles being fired at the jet shows it wasn't an accidental firing, and the proximity to the airport makes it very unlikely that the plane could've been confused with an incoming US military attack.

The Iranians are denying that any missiles were fired at all. Clearly they are lying.

It wouldn't be the first time a civilian airplane would be shot by mistake. We can easily think that Iran defense were on full alert, expecting some retaliation after their attack 4 hours before.

In 1988, a civilian airplane from Iran was shot accidentally by US Navy.

But so far, this is just speculations... Spreading them only increase the amount of wrong conclusions and rumors regarding what really happened.

[Newfie]

Correct, speculation.

There is the possibility that BOTH Iran and the USA are telling the truth. Consider this scenario:

The plane is climbing out and suffers some major mechanical failure. It could be a catastrophic engine failure or a terrorist bomb, but it severely impacted the electronics.

The plane makes a deviation from course and attempts to make its way back to the airport.

The AA guys pick up in an unscheduled aircraft, no transponder. So they shoot.

I haven’t read the professional pilots forum yet this am but that was my thought as of last night. I’m still struggling with the apparent time gap between when the plane went dark and when the missiles were fired. I’m not sure that there is a time gap, but there seems to be one.

So Iran could be correct that there was an mechanical problem and the USA correct that Iranian missiles finished her off.

2¢

[Azothius]

Did the plane turn back before or after the missiles were fired?

The way the following reads, it suggests the plane turned back only after it had been damaged by the missiles:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/worl ... raine.html

And video verified by The New York Times appeared to show an Iranian missile exploding near a plane above Parand, near Tehran’s airport, the area where the jetliner, Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, stopped transmitting its signal before it crashed.

Those aboard the plane most likely faced horrifying final moments, starting with an explosion as the missiles detonated just outside it, sending shrapnel and debris spiraling through the fuselage. The plane turned back toward the airport, then began its uncontrolled descent toward the ground.

This also seems to account for the "time gap". The gap was between when it stopped transmitting its signal and when it hit the ground, the gap did not occur before being struck by the missiles.

That's the way I read it. Though I suppose this could be read in 2 different ways, and is thus ambiguous.

Newfie, you created and entirely plausible and sensible scenario, but it may not fit what actually happened.

Please provide link to a report that states the plane turned back before being damaged.

[Newfie]

Az,

I can’t, it’s buried somewhere in the other forum and they are at about 400 posts on this topic.

The most recent posts I’m reading over there now seem to think it was hit by 2 missiles:
1 took out the electronics and made a big explosion
2 about 20-25 seconds later then hits the plane.

But there was also some people saying that there were reports of an engine overheat before the incident, and reports Iran is saying the local authorities wanted the plane grounded but the pilot over rode their concerns and took off. And I don’t have links to that either, only second hand reports.

Note I’m not saying “This DID happen.” Only that it is a possible solution that best fits the reports from all circumstances.

At this point I’m leaning toward it just being a simple SNAFU.

Iran may be in more political turmoil than we know and not able to control the information flow as closely as we give them credit for.

Which would be a second SNAFU.

[Plantagenet]

We can easily think that Iran defense were on full alert, expecting some retaliation after their attack 4 hours before. .

Of course. But this wasn't the only airplane that flew through that air space during those four hours.

Have you ever been to an airport?

Airplanes take off and land all the time.

So why did the Iranians wait four hours after their attack and then shoot down this particular airplane rather then any of the other airplanes that had been using the Tehran airport for the preceding four hours?

This plane was shot down a very short distance after take off. It was only at 4000 feet elevation and still climbing....i.e. it had obviously just left the Tehran airport.

I think the targeting was deliberate. The Mullahs don't like the expat Iranian community because it aids dissidents within Iran and so they struck at the expats, just like they've been beating and jailing and shooting down people who dare to demonstrate against the regime within Iran.

Cheers!

[EnergyUnlimited]

So why did the Iranians wait four hours after their attack and then shoot down this particular airplane rather then any of the other airplanes that had been using the Tehran airport for the preceding four hours?

You cannot place such an argument.
Someone could ask why did they wait 2, 3, or exactly 2.56.07 before shooting down any given aircraft?
One can also argue that most of planes taking off had expats on board.
The reality is that due to some unknown chain of events one aircraft have been shot and it happened to be this one. It was a night time. Maybe commander of AA defence was tired and sleepy or just got up after a nap, was confused and gave haphazard order.
Bad luck.

[Outcast_Searcher]

At this point I’m leaning toward it just being a simple SNAFU.

Iran may be in more political turmoil than we know and not able to control the information flow as closely as we give them credit for.

Which would be a second SNAFU.

Sure. Seems likely. OTOH, Iran blatantly lying that there were no missiles fired by Iran re the incident doesn't exactly make them look good. It's not like there aren't other sources which could glean such data.

Kinds of reminds me of a certain POTUS who frequently lies, and then expects the world to consider him credible.

[Yoshua]

I think that Iran shoot down the jet on purpose. Iran wanted to show that they are ready to kill their own. Iran is ready to do terror and suicide attacks.

I think the target was Boeing.

Five months after the U.S shoot down an Iranian airliner... Lockerbie terrorist attack took place. The U.S intelligence community thinks that Iran was behind the attack by using terrorist proxies.

That U.S airline company went bankrupt after the Lockerbie attack.

Boeing is already in trouble.

[careinke]

I saw a report on Fox that said the video showed the hit, and then the bang sound came 10 seconds later, proving the airplane was only two miles away. Frankly, that just doesn't line up with physics. Last time I checked the speed of sound is right around 600 mph (depending on atmospheric density), which means if it was a ten second "flash to bang", the plane would have been 10 miles away, not 2.

Basic NBC training; Flash, drop and start counting, Boom, whatever number you are at is how many miles you are from it, move perpendicular to the wind to avoid fallout. It is also useful to tell how far away lightning is from you...

[Outcast_Searcher]

I saw a report on Fox that said the video showed the hit, and then the bang sound came 10 seconds later, proving the airplane was only two miles away. Frankly, that just doesn't line up with physics. Last time I checked the speed of sound is right around 600 mph (depending on atmospheric density), which means if it was a ten second "flash to bang", the plane would have been 10 miles away, not 2.

Basic NBC training; Flash, drop and start counting, Boom, whatever number you are at is how many miles you are from it, move perpendicular to the wind to avoid fallout. It is also useful to tell how far away lightning is from you...

So you can't do fifth grade math and check before claiming that?

I remember as a child knowing that a rough guess for lightning distance re time to the thunderclap, was 5 seconds per mile. So I checked (given how uneven my memory is at age 60).

There are 3600 seconds per hour.

Looking it up to verify, instead of guessing, speed of sound roughly 750 mph. (It varies based on conditions, but this is a decent figure for back-of-the-envelope sanity checking). 700 is a far better round figure to use for many conditions than 600, BTW.

For example:

https://www.engineersedge.com/physics/s ... _13241.htm

750 mph / 3600 seconds per hour = .20833 miles per second, or call it .21 rounded.

So, certainly close enough to a mile per 5 seconds to call that a good rule of thumb.

...

Seriously. THIS IS THE INTERNET. Is basic fact / sanity checking SO HARD, before blaring how wrong figures you have doubts about are, before showing you're completely clueless yourself?

Again, credit to asg, for pointing out how much "The Death of Expertise" should be reading and applying the principles used, by the vast majority of would-be experts in "all things" on the web.

https://www.amazon.com/Death-Expertise- ... B01MYCDVHH

[EnergyUnlimited]

I saw a report on Fox that said the video showed the hit, and then the bang sound came 10 seconds later, proving the airplane was only two miles away. Frankly, that just doesn't line up with physics. Last time I checked the speed of sound is right around 600 mph (depending on atmospheric density), which means if it was a ten second "flash to bang", the plane would have been 10 miles away, not 2.

Basic NBC training; Flash, drop and start counting, Boom, whatever number you are at is how many miles you are from it, move perpendicular to the wind to avoid fallout. It is also useful to tell how far away lightning is from you...

Your estimations are wrong.
Speed of sound at sea level is approximately 330m/s
It drops with density of air but up to ~2 miles above sea level change is rather small.
So 10 seconds is 3300m, means ~2 miles (1 mile is 1609 meters).

@OS,
You are just beating this dead horse (or a camel) too much. It is enough to point out obvious math error.