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US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 20:47:44

Notice the new peak is now higher than the previous peak of a couple years ago.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 21:01:03

copious.abundance wrote:Notice the new peak is now higher than the previous peak of a couple years ago.

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Peak oils here, there and everywhere!!

As I go back through the archives on occasion looking for truly the trough of silliness, it is amazing, the number of people who were there, in full throated support of herd think, shouting down anyone who even hinted that bell shaped curves might not be all they were cracked up to be, and doom might not be just around the corner. So few of them are left, it would be interesting to hear what they think now, reality having dispatched the groupthink they fell for. Would they be kick the canners, true believers in the few organizations that had the expertise and understanding to not fall for the herd think, would they still be peak fearing churchmembers, and come back and faithfully sing songs in the pews while worshipping the bell shaped curve and still reading from the Bible they were provided by From The Wilderness, The Party's Over, the 2005 DOE Hirsch report?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 18:57:52

US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970
U.S. oil production broke 10 million barrels a day for the first time in 48 years in November, according to new monthly data released by the government on Wednesday.

While U.S. production has been rising as prices rose, the 10 million barrel mark is an important milestone that reinforces America's place in the energy big leagues and also its aspiration to use its new oil dominance in diplomacy.

The U.S. last produced 10 million barrels a day in November, 1970, just when production peaked before a very long decline, according to U.S. Energy Department monthly data. Unlike 1970, U.S. oil production in 2018 is on an upswing, and U.S. shale and other producers are expected to add more than 1 million barrels a day this year alone for an average production rate government forecasts put at 10.3 million barrels a day.

Abundance aplenty. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 19:16:13

copious.abundance wrote:US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970
U.S. oil production broke 10 million barrels a day for the first time in 48 years in November, according to new monthly data released by the government on Wednesday.

While U.S. production has been rising as prices rose, the 10 million barrel mark is an important milestone that reinforces America's place in the energy big leagues and also its aspiration to use its new oil dominance in diplomacy.

The U.S. last produced 10 million barrels a day in November, 1970, just when production peaked before a very long decline, according to U.S. Energy Department monthly data. Unlike 1970, U.S. oil production in 2018 is on an upswing, and U.S. shale and other producers are expected to add more than 1 million barrels a day this year alone for an average production rate government forecasts put at 10.3 million barrels a day.

Abundance aplenty. :)

Before you get too excited about the US production you should look at the net imports which show we are still importing a net 2.6 million barrels a day to meet our own consumption. The numbers are a lot better then they were a few years ago but we are still not self sufficient.
And the real question is, is how long can we keep this level of production up?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... tntus2&f=m
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 20:56:42

copious.abundance wrote:US oil production tops 10 million barrels a day for first time since 1970
U.S. oil production broke 10 million barrels a day for the first time in 48 years in November, according to new monthly data released by the government on Wednesday.

While U.S. production has been rising as prices rose, the 10 million barrel mark is an important milestone that reinforces America's place in the energy big leagues and also its aspiration to use its new oil dominance in diplomacy.

The U.S. last produced 10 million barrels a day in November, 1970, just when production peaked before a very long decline, according to U.S. Energy Department monthly data. Unlike 1970, U.S. oil production in 2018 is on an upswing, and U.S. shale and other producers are expected to add more than 1 million barrels a day this year alone for an average production rate government forecasts put at 10.3 million barrels a day.

Abundance aplenty. :)


On behalf of the Happy McDoomPeaksters that have treated you so poorly over the years, I want to apologize. As you have tracked increasing production, and asked completely reasonable questions, and provided factual information, they have welshed on bets, manufactured entirely new delusional decline claims, denied that a maximum of oil production is even a peak, claimed a peak where it didn't exist, and changed the very definition of oil to do one thing....dodge facing the truth. Thank you for providing the factual counterpoint to their delusions, a consistent snapshot of that reality they choose to avoid, and can't bear to acknowledge.

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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 01 Feb 2018, 22:47:55

:)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 02 Feb 2018, 21:51:44

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 08:12:11

There has been some debate amongst oil insiders on whether the current trajectory of US oil production is a blip or more sustainable. I subscribe to the blip theory (for the next six months at least) since drilling rig counts remained flat from July,2017 until Jan, 2018. The past 3 weeks the EIA has the production flattened.

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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 10:12:16

Goner - Yes, the lag time between the rig count and SIGNIFICANT changes in production is still difficult for some to grasp. First the obvious that some overlook. IOW seeing a rig added to the count just initially means just one new well is being drilled. Which, regardless of how good it comes on, is invisible on the national production ledger. OTOH keep it drilling for a year and you could add 6+ wells depending on the length of each well.

But as explained before rarely does the drill rig complete the well. It moves on to the next well. In a week, or 2 or 3+ weeks a completion rig moves in. But it could be much longer if needs to be frac'd. The completion rig won't move on until the frac crew can arrive. Depending on demand and how many frac crews are still working that could be several weeks to several months. But even after frac'ng is done and the well ready to flow the surface production needs to be set up. That might take a week plus to more then a month.

So now the well is producing. But assume it's the first week of the calendar month. Production is only tallied at the end of the calendar month. It might take a company a week to report that month's production to the regulator, such as the TRRC. But some might take a month...or more. But the regulator might take a month (or 2 or more) to post the data for public access. Now it's a question of how long it take an organization like the EIA to compile the data from all the sources and then publish it for public consumption.

Bottom line: it can take many months (easily 6 months to a year) for the effect of an increase (or decrease) in the published rig count to show up in such reports put out by the EIA et al.
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 10:51:25

to further add uncertainty regarding time to first production many of the shale drillers are now drilling a fair number of wells prior to bringing in a frac crew. "zipper" fracs are quite common now as a means of improving overall production and waiting until there are a number of wells to frac before moving in the crew lowers overall operating costs. It isn't unusual for wells to sit for a couple of months prior to the frac crew coming in.
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 08:57:03

The increase from the Permian from August until February is crazy.

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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 18:17:28

All of February was not just over 10 million bpd, but over 10.2 million bpd! 8O
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=W
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Mar 2018, 23:24:39

rockdoc123 wrote:to further add uncertainty regarding time to first production many of the shale drillers are now drilling a fair number of wells prior to bringing in a frac crew. "zipper" fracs are quite common now as a means of improving overall production and waiting until there are a number of wells to frac before moving in the crew lowers overall operating costs. It isn't unusual for wells to sit for a couple of months prior to the frac crew coming in.


Not just about logistics either. Turns out, when you are designing well drainage by SRV instead of just the old pump and pray routine, the pressure regime suddenly become very important. Frack here first, deplete, and then well #2 finds reduced pressure volume and ZIP goes the frack job, just having been diverted from the specific volume you want to turn into SRV. So do them all at once, and you've artificially created high pressure spread out across the pad in the same place across multiple wells. High pressure then remains and tends to discourage next stages into that volume, so presto, you know have a better induced fracture set across the SRV. First started seeing this issue in 2008, it looks like a decade later they have got it figured out, even if every job doesn't go as planned.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US oil production watch thread Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 04 Aug 2018, 17:18:23

Notice it is now very noticeably above the 1971 peak.

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Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=M
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby GHung » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 17:51:56

....In the meantime, one third of gas and oil production in the United States is a shale.And the bid consumer of energy is not only content to be independent, the country is now even an exporter of energy.


See how they do that? Carries at least the implication that the US is oil independent. Rest easy. Trump's in charge and we can all keep motoring happily into the foreseeable future. On the other hand, the President has too many conflicts of interest in KSA to piss off the House of Saud. The US can have its cake and eat it too, eh?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 10:27:01

Ghung -"...the country is now even an exporter of energy." Obviously based on Btu's that isn't even close to being true. If you believe it's an effort to confuse "exporter" with "net exporter". IOW the US has been an "exporter of energy" for more then 100 years.

The total Btu count of our oil imports greatly exceed even the combined Btu count of our oil and NG exports. Just more spin trying to influence the thoughts of the less informed.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 18 Oct 2018, 15:21:50

"Can the USA run on internally produced energy alone ?"


Of course it can, as long as it keeps importing 8 million barrels a day like it is now doing. Come on pstarr, get with the program here. Just because we import 43% of our oil doesn't mean we need it? Maybe they do it for the fun of it? Never thought of that did you? Didn't you know that Trump is storing all that oil in the basement of the White House. It is going to be a surprise after Peak is reached next year. The US has lots of oil!! It's called NGLs, road tar, horse piss, and camel pee. And, it is all specially formulated, and ready to be shipped to China. We are so rich in energy that Congress is going to enlist another Energizer Bunny!
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