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Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

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Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Ayoob » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 23:30:39

Stupid move on his part! Why would he want to sell our energy resources at the cheapest price we're likely to see ever again? The best move is to cap it and wait, buy up Iran and SA, and maybe take over Venezuela through some kind of banking arrangement that means that VZ is over and we'll be moving in to recover their assets and feed the starving teeming millions who would otherwise be wandering around the zoos and eating penguins or dolphins or whatever.

If only everyone would listen to me.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Cog » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 02:29:08

I used to drink a lot and think people should listen to my ideas. But then I sobered up and realized I was just ranting and no one liked my ideas.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 08:54:43

There is precedent for limiting how much oil can be sold so as to support higher prices. The Texas Railroad Commission intervened during the East Texas oil boom in the 1930's to stop large amounts of oil from being dumped on the market at low cost. More recently, the Alberta government imposed quotas on producers to stop the oil from being exported at ridiculously low prices.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 12:43:07

But the oil market is typically not interfered with.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 13:57:07

Ayoob wrote:Stupid move on his part! Why would he want to sell our energy resources at the cheapest price we're likely to see ever again? The best move is to cap it and wait, buy up Iran and SA, and maybe take over Venezuela through some kind of banking arrangement that means that VZ is over and we'll be moving in to recover their assets and feed the starving teeming millions who would otherwise be wandering around the zoos and eating penguins or dolphins or whatever.

Well, that's one possibility.

OTOH, maybe in 30 years or so, electric transport has 90% of new vehicles sold covered. In that case, the demand from oil for transport would be seriously waning, and look to decline to near zero within another roughly 20 years. (Worsening AGW, politics, etc. could well contribute to this, if it happens due to batteries getting better, cheaper, etc).

So the primary demand for oil would be for petrochemicals, asphalt, etc.

Even though the forecast is for global petrochemical demand to continue to grow quite a bit for decades, that electrification scenario HAS to be a big net decline in the long term picture for global oil demand, vs. the world where 90%+ of motorized transport is powered by hydrocarbons.

By the way, I'm not saying that's in the bag, though I think heading strongly in that direction is highly likely in roughly that timeframe. The point is, that claiming you know for sure what future oil prices will be and that they'll always be higher is pretty much hubris bordering on lunacy, IMO.

It's quite hazardous trying to even forecast the price of oil out a year, much less five. The volatility of oil prices over time prove that. This site's annual oil price picking contests were a decent anecdotal common-sense backup to that idea, IMO.

So while I don't believe in the ETP bozo's prediction that oil plunges to near zero$ within a few years, because "no one can afford to lift it, much less burn it" -- I also don't put a lot of stock in the endless predictions around here that "this is it -- oil prices will never be this low again", yadda, yadda either.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Revi » Wed 01 May 2019, 08:45:54

He's trying to make some money for his pals by selling our resources cheap. It's an old gambit. Remember the Teapot Dome scandal?
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 01 May 2019, 10:05:55

Given that the US is still a net importer of energy, you are really only selling to yourselves. Would you rather pay more or less? Restricting your own resource development and importing from other countries is a poor strategy, it hobbles your domestic industry and allows other countries to enhance theirs and ultimately you become dependent on the imports. I would say Trump's strategy (if he actually has one other than let the free market be free) is the right one.

EIA projects that, for the first time since the 1950s, the United States will export more energy than it imports by 2020 as increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids production outpace growth in U.S. energy consumption.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38152
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 01 May 2019, 11:10:00

The price of oil is controlled by the market, not by Trump. Global and local supply-and-demand balances control the price of EVERY commodity---not just oil.

Sheesh...don't you people know the slightest thing about economics?

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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 06 May 2019, 19:37:30

Cog wrote:I used to drink a lot and think people should listen to my ideas. But then I sobered up and realized I was just ranting and no one liked my ideas.

Keep it up. The first week is the hardest.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 May 2019, 08:21:34

Ayoob wrote:Stupid move on his part! Why would he want to sell our energy resources at the cheapest price we're likely to see ever again?


As far as I am aware, Trump doesn't produce oil or natural gas and can't dictate market prices for oil and gas by fiat...the market does. Therefore he isn't an idiot..at least in this way.
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Re: Trump is an idiot for selling our oil and gas so cheap

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 May 2019, 01:57:36

jawagord wrote:Given that the US is still a net importer of energy, you are really only selling to yourselves. Would you rather pay more or less? Restricting your own resource development and importing from other countries is a poor strategy, it hobbles your domestic industry and allows other countries to enhance theirs and ultimately you become dependent on the imports. I would say Trump's strategy (if he actually has one other than let the free market be free) is the right one.

EIA projects that, for the first time since the 1950s, the United States will export more energy than it imports by 2020 as increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids production outpace growth in U.S. energy consumption.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38152

I'll certainly agree that if the US becomes truly energy independent by being able to produce more than it consumes, that is great news. It's not clear to me that Trump can take much credit for that, however. That trend has been occurring for quite a while now, with or without Trump, and with or without Obama restricting offshore oil leases, etc. It's been about fracking technology enabling much more US production, of both crude oil and NG.

Presidents and political parties love to take credit (or assign blame) for various economic events which occur while they are POTUS, but quite a bit of the big economic picture, frankly, is mostly just luck, as far as they are concerned, as it is driven by much larger and longer term forces than they have any significant control over.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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