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Tropics Expand

Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 22:37:52

AgentR wrote:There is no law you can pass that will change the roasting that is on the way.

Tropical climate zones are expanding, that is as clear as can be. Take some of that rage and put it to work finding out what to plant, when to plant, and how to bring something worthwhile to harvest under the new conditions. Because you sure as heck aren't going to push back an expansion of this magnitude.


Thank you. Placing blame will do no good. (Other than the satisfaction for those who have been right all along.) Some of that should be expected. (You don't really expect that those that prevented any action until it was too late should not face censure, do you?)

After all, they did bring about the end of the world.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 23:35:53

Expatriot wrote:The science is weak because it relies on a very large serving of assumptions. There are assumptions in the placement of weather stations, assumptions in the culling of raw data, assumptions in the creation of modeling programs, and so on.

So all we need to do to debunk AGW is to show that equally plausible assumptions on selection of data and creation of models yields contrary results. That's the scientific process.

Why don't the denialists do that, instead of writing ad-hominem blogs?
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Roy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 06:47:29

Plant Hardiness zone maps


I was going to post same. Good one.

We can argue all day about what's causing it, but it won't change the fact that it's happening.

Extreme weather events are indicative of climate change. Flooding, torrential downpours, droughts, heat waves, etc.

Humans have an amazing capacity to deny reality even at their own peril. This is well documented in disasters. This is a slow motion disaster. And its just getting started.

It doesn't matter if it's caused by solar activity, burning of carbon, or whatever.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 07:24:51

Cid_Yama wrote:USDA to update Plant Hardiness zone maps to reflect climate change
USDA commissioned the revision after a flap in 2003, when the American Horticultural Society released a draft update based on 16 years of temperature data. USDA had funded the project but the Bush Administration rejected the update, which was configured differently and showed significant warming over the 1990 version, with many parts of the nation shifted into warmer climate zones. (The Arbor Day Foundation displays a modified version of the rejected map on its web site, along with an animation that shows the foundation’s estimate of warming since 1990.)


If not for Arborday releasing the rejected map, we would have been without a new plant Hardiness map for 20 years because the Bush Administration did not want to admit that the zones had shifted northward, confirming climate change.


Before you get all so happy blaming George W. Bush for the lack of a modern map remember two things. George H. W. Bush released the 1990 map and Bill Clinton did not release the 2000 map. To my way of thinking Bill Clinton could have released the 2000 map and we would be on schedule for the 2010 map decadal update. I am all for blaming those in charge when they screw up, but it is extremely important to make sure we point the finger at the right people. Sure George W. Bush could have released the updated map any time while he was in office, that is from January 2001 to January 2009. Blame him all you want for what he did or didn't do during those 8 long years, but never forget Bill Clinton was in control until January 20, 2001 and Barak Obama has been in charge since January 20, 2009. I find it unconscionable that the map is being delayed until 2011! There should have been a new map around May 2000 and another around May 2010!
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby sparky » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 07:57:13

.
Keith_McClary
" I suppose you believe they actually went to the Moon? :roll:"

well , someone left a laser reflector out there and Australians physicist transmitted the landing picture from the moon at Parkes radio telescope , and we don't take crap from no nobodies


"I think they use models of airflow around aircraft to predict lift, stability, etc."

they always use wind tunnel to work out how wrong their calculations are , same for naval designers for the hull of ships , they use hydraulic basins
a little bit of reality is worth ten tons of theoretical scribbling

The tensile strength of aluminum cannot be used as a political tool to force an aluminum tax on every American.
"How are we going to make them drive lightweight cars, then?"

whoever " we " is is beside the point ,or the politics of consumption
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 10:55:22

They are not released decadally. There was NO 2000 map. AHS presented their map to the USDA in 2003. Which is when it was rejected. During the Bush Administration.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 12:45:25

Cid_Yama wrote:They are not released decadally. There was NO 2000 map. AHS presented their map to the USDA in 2003. Which is when it was rejected. During the Bush Administration.


So do you think something in the Clinton Administration, which included Albert Gore Jr., prevented them from having the USDA draw up a decadal map in the year 2000? Since when does the Government wait for an outside organization to prompt it to do its job? The USDA should be putting out hardiness maps regularly as part of what they do.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby AgentR » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 15:02:30

Cid_Yama wrote:(You don't really expect that those that prevented any action until it was too late should not face censure, do you?)
After all, they did bring about the end of the world.


Personally, I blame the folks that were most interested in insuring a "per capita equitable" answer. Making sure Bobby didn't get any more than Joseph when the whole candy factory was burning down around their ears isn't what I'd call action free from blame.

That said, I don't place much value in "blame" to begin with. Things are fixable or not. Survivable or not. The GCC result seems unfixable as far as I can tell; I still believe that some measure of survival is possible for some (albeit small) number of humans, and I do everything I can to tip the scales in the favor of those I care most about. If, in the end, the effort is futile, I will have no regrets concerning the actions I took toward that end.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 15:51:49

Keith_McClary wrote:So all we need to do to debunk AGW is to show that equally plausible assumptions on selection of data and creation of models yields contrary results. That's the scientific process. Why don't the denialists do that, instead of writing ad-hominem blogs?


Several prominent and well-credentialed scientists have concluded that GW is not significantly caused by human behavior.

Several have tried to get their results published in what you would consider quality journals.

But you know where I'm going with this, right?

One of the Cult's charlatan leaders orchestrated the blackballing of competing theories.

Why don't you start there if you're looking for denial.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 15:53:13

Roy wrote:Extreme weather events are indicative of climate change. Flooding, torrential downpours, droughts, heat waves, etc.


Nonsense.

If not nonsense, then you'll agree that last year's tepid hurricane season is indicative of lack of climate change?
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 17:23:01

Blah blah blah.

If there is a group of scientists that want to publish AGW skeptic papers, they can put together their own first class journal to publish the science and rake in boatloads of industry money to finance it.

It only takes a couple thousand dollars and a few hundred hours of the spare time of a couple people to set up a fully respectable on-line journal publishing peer reviewed science.

There's no cabal that controls these things. Saying that they are being suppressed by some sort of conspiracy is like claiming Martians are beaming thought control waves into your brain.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby dissident » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 17:33:30

Rabid global warming skeptics are also conspiracy schizophrenics. Most of the casual skeptics out there have been politically agitated by talk radio (e.g Limbaugh). This denial is political noise and not science.

Lindzen can write anything he wants. Let's have some more Lindzens instead of these uneducated twits and their ignorant prattle.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Shar_Lamagne » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 22:41:10

Cid_Yama wrote:
“THE PROMISE of food lies in the tropics,” the UN Food and Agriculture Organization director general said at the University of the Philippines. “Here in this sun-drenched belt of land, temperature is benign and rainfall abundant. These could be the food granaries for the world of our children.”

Not anymore. Rising temperatures have widened the “Tropical Belt,” notes Nature Geoscience. Since the FAO official delivered his address in Los Baños in May 1979, the tropics expanded by between 2 and 4.8 degrees latitude. As the world warms, edges of the “Belt”—outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones—drift toward the poles.

Temperature and rainfall changes are altering yields. Affected are politically volatile crops like corn and rice. “In the Philippines, rice yields drop by 10 percent for every one degree centigrade increase in night-time temperature,” BBC’s environment correspondent Richard Black writes.

The slump is region-wide. As droughts dry reservoirs, yields have fallen by 10 to 20 percent over the last 25 years. More declines are ahead.

“We found that as the daily minimum temperature increases, or as nights get hotter, rice yields drop,” researcher Jarrod Welch said. “Where temperature increases more than 3 °C, impacts are stressful to all crops and in all regions,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded.

There are biological limits to what can be done. “We can’t just move all our crops north or south because a lot of crops are photosensitive,” notes Dr. Geoff Hawtin at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. “Flowering is triggered by day length.”

We don’t know where the tipping points are,” Hawtin adds. “They could come quite quickly.”

link


Cid_Yama wrote:In the very article quoted it defines the "tropical belt," Where the "edges of the Belt” are the outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones.

Here is the actual article from Nature Geoscience.

Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

And, of course, this is also happening faster than projected. The IPCC predicted a 2 degree latitude expansion by 2100. It has actually expanded several degrees since 1979.
The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century.

As summarized in Box 1, several recent studies found that in climate model simulations the jet streams and the associated wind and precipitation patterns tend to move poleward under global warming. As the jet streams are indicators of the poleward limits of the tropics, this implies that the tropics will expand as the Earth warms. Based on these studies, it appears that climate forcings over the twenty-first century would be expected to lead to an expansion of the tropics by as much as 2 degrees latitude.

Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded — during only the last few decades of the twentieth century — by at least the same margin as models predict for this century. Several recent studies, using independent datasets, show robust trends in different measures of the width of the tropical belt. Based on five different types of measurement, they find a widening of several degrees latitude since 1979.


Cid_Yama wrote:
The edges of the tropical belt are the outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones (Fig. 1) and their poleward shift could lead to fundamental shifts in ecosystems and in human settlements.

Shifts in precipitation patterns would have obvious implications for agriculture and water resources and could present serious hardships in marginal areas. Of particular concern are the semi-arid regions poleward of the subtropical dry belts, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa, and parts of South America. A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increased moisture to other areas. Widening of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement of major extratropical climate zones due to changes in the position of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position of high and low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes. An increase in the width of the tropics could bring an increase in the area affected by tropical storms, or could change climatological tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.

Widening of the tropics may also lead to changes in the distribution of climatically important trace gases in the stratosphere. The Brewer–Dobson circulation moves air upwards from the troposphere into the stratosphere in the tropics. If the area over which this upwelling occurs increases, transport of water vapour into the stratosphere might be enhanced. This could lead to an enhanced greenhouse effect, including tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, and reduced ozone.

More far-reaching changes in the climate system include the oceans and biosphere. Because atmospheric winds and air-sea exchanges drive the ocean currents, changes in the Hadley circulation may induce changes in the ocean circulation. These may have important feedbacks on tropospheric climate, marine ecosystems (including fisheries) and biogeochemical cycles, which have been hypothesized to lead to irreversible climate change.

link


bluekachina wrote:
Researchers at James Cook University concluded the tropics had widened by up to 500 kilometres (310 miles) in the past 25 years after examining 70 peer-reviewed scientific articles.

They looked at findings from long-term satellite measurements, weather balloon data, climate models and sea temperature studies to determine how global warming was impacting on the tropical zone.

The findings showed it now extended well beyond the traditional definition of the tropics, the equatorial band circling the Earth between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.

Professor Steve Turton said that meant the subtropical arid zone which borders the tropics was being pushed into temperate areas, with potentially devastating consequences.

"Such areas include heavily-populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America," he said.

"All of (them) are predicted to experience severe drying.

"If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications."

Turton said tropical diseases such as dengue fever were likely to become more prevalent.

"Some models predict the greatest increase in the annual epidemic potential of dengue will be into the subtropical regions, including the southern United States, China and northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and South America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere," he said.

link


Ok, I think I got the important stuff from this thread.

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 00:57:53

Expatriot wrote:Several have tried to get their results published in what you would consider quality journals.

But you know where I'm going with this, right?

One of the Cult's charlatan leaders orchestrated the blackballing of competing theories.
During the denialist Bush II regime? I thought they had power over research and journal funding.

Anyway there are hundreds of respectable independent science journals in the world, you imagine a really big conspiracy.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 11:37:49

Keith_McClary wrote:Anyway there are hundreds of respectable independent science journals in the world


There are only a few climate journals. Most other journals wouldn't be interested in publishing climate material.

It would only take a handful of people working together to stifle competing thought. This has been done before. I can't remember names, but some guy dug up an early human skeleton and the top names in human ancestry prevented his theory from getting traction. He died unrecognized.

From my years in science I'd say that 95% of science professors were liberals. That means that it would only take a few guiding hands to sway the journals, as most are already leaning a certain way.

In any event, for all you card carrying democrats out there, aren't you glad to see how much the sock puppet Obama has done for your GW cause? :roll:
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 12:00:14

Expatriot wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:Anyway there are hundreds of respectable independent science journals in the world


............From my years in science I'd say that 95% of science professors were liberals.........

You're saying there is a conspiracy that only targets white conservatives but gives women, Indians, Jews, and Chinese a free ride? Just trying to wrap my head around this.....
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 13:35:42

When what you believe isn't true, the vast majority don't believe what you do, because it isn't true.

Not because there is some vast global conspiracy to get everyone to believe something that's not true.

With all the money that big oil and big coal are pumping into the conservative meme, don't you think that if it were true, everyone would already believe it.

It's an uphill battle for you, because you are pushing an ideology that's complete nonsense, is not internally consistent, and makes no logical sense whatsoevever.

It's whatever is best for the corporations, and those with great wealth. Without regard for anything else.

It's whatever your masters want.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 14:21:06

PrestonSturges wrote:
Expatriot wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:Anyway there are hundreds of respectable independent science journals in the world


............From my years in science I'd say that 95% of science professors were liberals.........

You're saying there is a conspiracy that only targets white conservatives but gives women, Indians, Jews, and Chinese a free ride? Just trying to wrap my head around this.....


I'm uncertain what you're asking here.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 14:27:01

Cid_Yama wrote:When what you believe isn't true, the vast majority don't believe what you do, because it isn't true.

Cid, what are you saying here?

Are you saying that the fact that a "vast majority" of people believe in something means that it's true? Because it sure looks like you're saying that.

And let's apply you bizarre syllogism to peak oil.

Cid Yama believes peak oil is nigh. The vast majority don't believe that. It isn't true Cid.

Jeez Lou-eeze
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 14:35:48

That's a logical fallacy and a straw man argument.

The fact that most people will not believe something that is untrue, does not lead to what most people believe must be true.

Then to accuse me of habouring the false analogy and attacking that, is a straw man.

You also used a red herring by mentioning peak oil to distract from the original point, that the hash of positions held by conservatives are not internally consistent, in some cases are contradictory, and mearly represent the desires of corporations and the mega-wealthy.
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Like I said, it's whatever your masters want.
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