[REAL Green]

“Over 100,000 Chinese Evacuated As Floods Continue Pressuring Three Gorges Dam”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... gorges-dam
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=YTyx1IIa

[sparky]

.
I'm following it too , the dam basin will experience small tremors due to the extra weight of the water
if it mesh with an imminent Earthquake this could be a problem

[dissident]

If there is a risk of failure for the Three Gorges dam outside of China hate propaganda fantasies, then it is related to estimates of the hydrological regimes in the catchment. The dam is only able to withstand a certain level of water load. It needs any excess to be effectively diverted downstream past the dam. If this offloading is undersized due to a failure of engineering, then the whole dam can fail.

[Newfie]

A fairly well written article with some deeper details.

https://medium.com/@guanvideo/the-truth ... 8843975923

[Plantagenet]

This is one of the most important stories in the world, and the US media is barely covering it. The bottom line is the water in the dam is getting very close to the top of the dam, and if it overtops the dam then the damn dam will fail with utterly catastrophic results.

The water level behind the dam is going up about half a foot per hour, and is now at about 543 feet. The maximum level it can reach before the dam fails is 574 feet.

water-china-gorges-dam-nears-maximum-levels-

When you do the math, if nothing changes the dam would fail in about 60 more hours.

However the Chinese can increase the discharge from the dam a bit more, but then they flood more area below the dam. And even if they increase the discharge from the dam to the maximum, there is still more water coming into the dam pond then they can release.

Like the incredible heat waves and fires we've seen all around the world over the last year, the huge amount of rainfall hitting central China seems to be a manifestation of climate change.

This is the year climate change has reached the point that the weather has gone hellish all around the world, all at once.......


Its gonna blow!!!! Run away run away run away aaaaaaaaghggghghghghhhhhhhh!

Cheers!

[Newfie]

I read more heavy rain predicted for Sunday.

We shall see.

[Subjectivist]

It amazes me how incompetent members here believe engineers in China are.

In objective terms any large hydro dam project has a ton of studies that deal with flood control. As for the fact that releasing water faster flood land downstream well yeah, what did you think would be the result? The point is a low energy flood is survivable while allowing a dam failure to avoid low scale flooding would be catastrophic.

The Three Gorges Dam is not just a water retention dam, it is one of the largest hydroelectric generation projects on the planet. Losing the dam would force China to restart dozens of coal power plants to make up the loss in generation. Building flood diversion system into any large dam is a standard procedure. In addition to the generator sets every big dam has 'flood gates' that divert flow when the pool gets too full.

Also Three Gorges is a gravity dam, which means even if it does get overtopped the main lump of the structure will still be in the canyon where it was poured and will prevent the pool from draining more than part way to the historic river level before the dam way built.


As is shown here the reservoir has been maxed out before with the gate system keeping things under control.

[Outcast_Searcher]

It amazes me how incompetent members here believe engineers in China are.

In objective terms any large hydro dam project has a ton of studies that deal with flood control. As for the fact that releasing water faster flood land downstream well yeah, what did you think would be the result? The point is a low energy flood is survivable while allowing a dam failure to avoid low scale flooding would be catastrophic.

The Three Gorges Dam is not just a water retention dam, it is one of the largest hydroelectric generation projects on the planet. Losing the dam would force China to restart dozens of coal power plants to make up the loss in generation. Building flood diversion system into any large dam is a standard procedure. In addition to the generator sets every big dam has 'flood gates' that divert flow when the pool gets too full.

Also Three Gorges is a gravity dam, which means even if it does get overtopped the main lump of the structure will still be in the canyon where it was poured and will prevent the pool from draining more than part way to the historic river level before the dam way built.


As is shown here the reservoir has been maxed out before with the gate system keeping things under control.

Thanks for dealing in facts and science (re engineering).

The usual suspects are more about "reporting" on the possibility of doom than on facts or statements from engineers that might actually be credible.

Whether it's claiming that more people would die from a failure than live in the ENTIRE area that would potentially be flooded, or falsely claiming that it's about to "collapse" is all they care about.

And when they're wrong, as usual, they just go on to the next topic to bray about.

I've already put all the total clowns on ignore, but it's getting to the point that the signal to noise ratio on this site is so low, my time isn't worth it to come here.

Unfortunate, but predictable, I suppose given what has happened over time to other sites like "The Oil Drum".

[sparky]

.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 310455.htm
" WUHAN, Aug. 22 (Xinhua) -- Yangtze River's fifth flood of this year has smoothly passed the Three Gorges Dam after pushing the reservoir's water level to a record high.

The water level at the Three Gorges reservoir started to recede after reaching 167.65 meters at 8 a.m. Saturday, the highest since the reservoir was built in 2003, according to the Changjiang Water Resources Commission.

The reservoir saw an inflow of 75,000 cubic meters per second at the peak of the flood and a maximum outflow at 49,400 cubic meters per second, with some of the floodwater contained in the reservoir.

Yangtze River, China's longest, on Aug. 17 recorded the fifth flood of the year in its upper reaches after a spell of heavy rainfall, three days after the fourth flood was recorded on Aug. 14."

[Plantagenet]

In objective terms any large hydro dam project has a ton of studies that deal with flood control.

Of course.

But nonetheless there have been a number of catastrophic dam failures through the years at dam sites all around the world.

.... allowing a dam failure to avoid low scale flooding would be catastrophic.

The whole idea that the Chinese are thinking about "allowing a dam failure" is ridiculous.

If the three Gorge Dam fails it won't be because the Chinese "allowed it." It will be because the record precipitation they are seeing in central China causes the lake level to exceed the design parameters for the dam.

China is by no means immune from dam failures and similar catastrophes..... One of the worse dam failure floods in history occurred in 1975 when the Banqiao dam in China collapsed, causing as many as 240,000 casualties downstream.

Banqiao_Dam_failure

A collapse of the Three Gorges dam would be much much worse then the earlier Banqiao Dam failure in China.

As-water-rises-Three-Gorges-Dam-crisis-puts-400m-at-risk]

Hopefully the lake will stop rising and the Three Gorges dam won't collapse but the Chinese have already bungled things by not emptying the reservoir enough months ago to accommodate this years rainfall and runoff. Now they have no choice but to release as much water from the dam as they can, causing flooding in areas downstream as they attempt to keep the lake level from exceeding the dam's design parameters.

Cheers!

[Tanada]

Three Gorges Dam waters drop from peak, but flood risk persists

CHONGQING -- The water level at China's Three Gorges Dam has dropped from its record peak over the weekend, although the risk of flooding lingers as heavy rains continue.

The water receded to 165 meters Monday after reaching 167.65 meters Saturday, the highest since the hydroelectric dam opened in 2003, Xinhua News Agency reported.

But the water line remains far above the 145-meter limit set to control flooding during the summer and fall rainy season.

Authorities remain vigilant as heavy rains are expected to persist upstream on the Yangtze River through Wednesday. Floodwaters have inundated parts of Sichuan Province, the metropolis of Chongqing and other areas upstream from the dam.

The floods have affected almost 4 million people and caused nearly 20 billion yuan ($2.89 billion) in direct damage, with crops and commercial buildings among the hardest hit.

Water levels have fallen in upstream cities, and floodwaters continue to recede from roads and other affected areas. In Chongqing, a commercial development that was flooded has partially reopened, according to local media.

LINKY

[sparky]

.
We've had some issue with flooding in Queensland , suburbs of Brisbane got flooded after a severe rainfall in spite of a big dam upstream
an inquiry was held
It turned out that the dam was told it's purpose was to hold as much water as possible for supply during the frequent dry spells
so the dam was pretty full , filled some more and when the bulk of the runoff happened could hold no more
the dam operators said that if the dam had to protect homes from flooding when they had been build in a notorious flood plain ,
maybe their purpose had to be changed and the drought protection part removed

it's a big issue with dams , what do you want them to do , power , water reserve or flood control

[yellowcanoe]

China is by no means immune from dam failures and similar catastrophes..... One of the worse dam failure floods in history occurred in 1975 when the Banqiao dam in China collapsed, causing as many as 240,000 casualties downstream.

Banqiao_Dam_failure

That's an apples and oranges comparison. The Banqiao dam was an earth fill structure with an insufficient number of sluice gates to pass the peak water flow. Once water starts to overflow an earth fill dam a catastrophic failure is the most likely result. The Three Gorges dam is a steel reinforced concrete gravity dam. Even in the case where the sluice gates are unable to release enough water, water overflowing the dam is not going to result in a catastrophic failure. I highly doubt the sluice gates on the Three Gorges dam were operating at full capacity since the dam was built to handle a 10,000 year flood.

[dissident]

The current hysteria about this dam is politically motivated BS. But what happens in the long term is another issue. A 10,000 year flood is not such a safe outlier in the era of global warming. Much like those "unlikely" floods on the Mississippi. So any real risk from this dam comes down to what the engineers estimated for the catchment water loading. Current engineering estimates are likely to be inadequate for situations arising even before 2060.

[Outcast_Searcher]

The current hysteria about this dam is politically motivated BS. But what happens in the long term is another issue. A 10,000 year flood is not such a safe outlier in the era of global warming. Much like those "unlikely" floods on the Mississippi. So any real risk from this dam comes down to what the engineers estimated for the catchment water loading. Current engineering estimates are likely to be inadequate for situations arising even before 2060.

There is NO question that there are big implications and risks for a project like that -- as MSM articles (vs. random hysteria and FUD) have clearly shown. Over a million people being displaced (even temporarily) or massively inconvenienced and $billions in economic consequences is no small thing, for example.

My objection to the empty arm waving is that the prediction by the usual suspects that ALL of the 400 million plus people living in the ENTIRE Yangtze basin are going to die from THIS flood real soon now is the usual hard crash permadoomer endless nonsense.

For one thing, in the modern world, things like TV, radio, and the internet exist, and warnings can be sent out if things badly worsen. For another glaringly obvious thing, some of that basin is upstream from the dam. But who wants facts when there's empty imminent doom to sell?

And sadly, I'll predict that despite multiple big warnings on the dam and area re flooding risks roughly once a decade -- that once things calm down again, people will go back to sleep and little will actually be done. Same as it ever was globally with thousands of significant and obvious problems.

[Plantagenet]

I highly doubt the sluice gates on the Three Gorges dam were operating at full capacity since the dam was built to handle a 10,000 year flood.

Actually no.

Its mathematically meaningless to talk about a 10,000 year flood because flood magnitudes change in response to climate change, and the climate of central China is changing and becoming much wetter. Even previous estimates of the 100 or 500 or 1000 year floods for this drainage are wrong, because as the climate gets wetter the river will produce larger and more frequent floods then would've been estimated using the existing flood time series.

AND, the sluice gates at the Three Gorges dam actually were operating at full capacity, but more water was entering the dam reservoir then could be released through the dam sluice gates. Thats why the water level behind the dam was rising to dangerous levels AND at the same time there were very damaging floods downstream from the dam ---- they were forced to release too much water in order to slow the rise of the reservoir which was reaching dangerous levels.

The Chinese engineers and hydrologists totally screwed things up this year Hundreds of people have died so far in the flooding and there has been billions of dollars of damage downstream from the dam.

One of the main reasons to build dams is to prevent floods, and Ideally they should release enough water from the dam BEFORE the rainy season to catch the runoff from the drainage basin and PREVENT Flooding. But the Chinese engineers and hydrologists failed to lower the dam level to safe levels before the rainy season and then they had so much rain that they had to release much more water then they wanted to, flooding cities and huge areas downstream from the dam resulting in the deaths of Hundreds of people and billions of dollars in damages from the floods hitting cities all down the Yangtze.


Those incompetent #@%&$ idiots at the Three Gorges Dam really screwed up this year....they didn't lower the reservoir enough before the rainy season and now they have no choice but release too much water and flood cities all down the river!

Cheers!

[jedrider]

I suspect that the Chinese engineers used historical data to figure out how to control flooding. You can throw that out the window. I finally agree with Plantagenet!

[Outcast_Searcher]

Or, climate change is a thing AND this year has been unprecedented re flooding in the China in the past 60 years, and so bad things are happening.

OTOH, 400+ million people aren't going to die when the dam bursts (which it almost certainly won't), so there's that.

...

But it's a good thing the US never makes mistakes re building or managing things.

NEVER a problem from say, Hurricane Katrina and poorly constructed levees. And NEVER rebuilding them insufficiently so that disaster couldn't be repeated, even as climate change worsens. And there's NEVER EVER be a problem with US infrastructure. Like much of our road system and dam system being poorly maintained and in need of repair. And NEVER EVER EVER a recent example of that (including problems with dam design / construction) in that ever-present liberal reminder of lots of PERFECT government in action, California. Oh, and never ANY problems with the US power grid, speaking of infrastructure, in that massive-government-induced utopia of CA.

Funny how easy it is for certain Americans to whine about China, but ignore how pathetically the US has run (and run down) it's OWN shop for the 6 decades I've been alive to notice.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I suspect that the Chinese engineers used historical data to figure out how to control flooding.

It's fairly safe to bet that when the Three Gorges Dam was designed and started, the Chinese engineers didn't BEGIN to know what we know today about global warming (just like 99.9% of the rest of the world). It's also highly likely that those engineers don't manage day to day (or season to season) decisions on flood management.

[bochen777]

I suspect that the Chinese engineers used historical data to figure out how to control flooding.

It's fairly safe to bet that when the Three Gorges Dam was designed and started, the Chinese engineers didn't BEGIN to know what we know today about global warming (just like 99.9% of the rest of the world). It's also highly likely that those engineers don't manage day to day (or season to season) decisions on flood management.

Short wet dream is for Trump to tactical nuke the dam, thats why he is always talking about it collapsing and killing 400 million Chinese.... he pretends to care about Chinese citizens.... laughable...


Short aka Real Green may get his wish soon

https://forum.ascendchina.ch/t/americas ... n-earth/85