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The U.S., energy producing superpower

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 21:10:46

BANKRUPTCY. I'm wondering again if many folks using that word really understand what the f*ck they are talking about? I went over this a few weeks ago...maybe time for a refresher course. LOL.

Being in the biz for 41 years the Rockman can only guess how many companies he recalls that filed "bankruptcy": 20? 30?. But I recall only 2 going out of business. The vast majority came out ahead: reduced debt (often times completely flushing bond holders), reduced interest rates, longer repayment schedules, etc. But some times those bankruptcies led to corporate acquisitions which typically worked out better for the companies owning the notes/bonds: the acquiring companies would take that debt on.

Filing "bankruptcy" in the oil patch doesn't automatically mean a company is going out of business. It often means they get a new breath of life pumped into the while some of their creditors take a hard hit.

Do folks really have that bad a memory? From 2009:

"SINCE the start of the year it had seemed probable, and for several weeks inevitable. General Motors' application on June 1st for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from its creditors, triggering the biggest industrial bankruptcy in history, was nonetheless a momentous event."

And just 8 years later GM has a market cap of $58 BILLION.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 21:18:47

They are the ones that created the first chart that shows the 75% interest expense ratio. But, maybe they are just flunkies who don't know anything about financial balance sheets of energy companies.

simple answer is yes. They look at numbers that make sense to them, not numbers that make sense to oil companies who are actually out there and operating. Look I know this, was involved for many years at a high level. Unless you are inside the company you have absolutely no idea how much money they are churning;, especially if you can't read a balance sheet that is public info and understand it.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 20:02:22

ROCKMAN wrote:BANKRUPTCY. I'm wondering again if many folks using that word really understand what the f*ck they are talking about? I went over this a few weeks ago...maybe time for a refresher course. LOL.

Being in the biz for 41 years the Rockman can only guess how many companies he recalls that filed "bankruptcy": 20? 30?. But I recall only 2 going out of business. The vast majority came out ahead: reduced debt (often times completely flushing bond holders), reduced interest rates, longer repayment schedules, etc. But some times those bankruptcies led to corporate acquisitions which typically worked out better for the companies owning the notes/bonds: the acquiring companies would take that debt on.

Filing "bankruptcy" in the oil patch doesn't automatically mean a company is going out of business. It often means they get a new breath of life pumped into the while some of their creditors take a hard hit.

Do folks really have that bad a memory? From 2009:

"SINCE the start of the year it had seemed probable, and for several weeks inevitable. General Motors' application on June 1st for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from its creditors, triggering the biggest industrial bankruptcy in history, was nonetheless a momentous event."

And just 8 years later GM has a market cap of $58 BILLION.


From what I know, the debt is passed on to others, so it's still in the system and has to be paid one way or another. And that can only be done through the opposite of peak oil and limits to growth in general.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Cog » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 20:32:53

Bankruptcy destroys debt. This does mean the unpaid debt does not have ripple effects downstream. Suppliers do not get paid and therefore have to absorb this cost so its not painless.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 21:31:15

ralfy - As Cog says: bankruptcy destroys debt. Or, in many cases reorganizes it into a more manageable form. And typically it is the unsecured bond holders that take the biggest hit and not the vendors and suppliers.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 08:45:54

ROCKMAN wrote:ralfy - As Cog says: bankruptcy destroys debt. Or, in many cases reorganizes it into a more manageable form. And typically it is the unsecured bond holders that take the biggest hit and not the vendors and suppliers.


Bankruptcy destroys not only debt.

Also, debt becomes more manageable only if the opposite of peak oil takes place.

Finally, vendors and suppliers can be hit if they are eventually forced to rely on the same unsecured bonds to produce and process more oil.

That's why listening to Cog is a waste of time.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 08:55:42

ralfy wrote:Also, debt becomes more manageable only if the opposite of peak oil takes place.


Well, the opposite of peak oil has been happening all those times peak oil hasn't been happening, such as the late 1970's, the late 90's, the one claimed by idiots and LATOC groupies in 2008, etc etc.

ralfy wrote:Finally, vendors and suppliers can be hit if they are eventually forced to rely on the same unsecured bonds to produce and process more oil.


And your experience in the oil field supply industry indicates that they rely on BOND sales to stay alive? As opposed to, you know, the thing they have been doing in a couple centuries now? Did you learn this from your astrologist group leader from LATOC?
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 09:01:29

ralfy - "...vendors and suppliers can be hit if they are eventually forced to rely on the same unsecured bonds to produce and process more oil." I assume the "hit" you're referring to is declined business activity. The decrease in such work is much more a function of lower oil prices.

Actually a company going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy usually means more business and guaranteed payment for vendors and suppliers. The C11 order typically puts those folks ahead of bond holders and requires payment on a set schedule. Oddly many years ago Halliburton didn't want to do any work for a small operator that had built of a lot of debt pre-bankrutcy. But the bankruptcy judge ORDERED Halliburton to work for them since it was GUARENTEED payment for the new charges.

Bankruptcy judges are a lot more powerful then many realize. Especially when it comes to helping companies survey bad debt situations.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 11:14:55

another thing to think about regarding Chapter 11 insolvency is that many companies would actually prefer to take this route as it is often the least painful to solve their cashflow problems and gives them some breathing space to sort out the underlying problems. A number of companies have come out of Chapter 11 stronger and have been successful including GM and Chrysler. On of the main reasons why public companies want to avoid Chapter 11 is that if you are on the Board of Directors or an Officer of the company declaring Chapter 11 sits on your permanent record with the SEC or other trading commissions. That becomes hugely problematic when you want to start up or sit on the Board of another listed company. As a consequence Chapter 11 is the last resort in the minds of Directors and Officers even though it might make the most sense in terms of giving the company a better chance at a future.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 23 Jun 2017, 06:53:56

ROCKMAN wrote:ralfy - "...vendors and suppliers can be hit if they are eventually forced to rely on the same unsecured bonds to produce and process more oil." I assume the "hit" you're referring to is declined business activity. The decrease in such work is much more a function of lower oil prices.

Actually a company going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy usually means more business and guaranteed payment for vendors and suppliers. The C11 order typically puts those folks ahead of bond holders and requires payment on a set schedule. Oddly many years ago Halliburton didn't want to do any work for a small operator that had built of a lot of debt pre-bankrutcy. But the bankruptcy judge ORDERED Halliburton to work for them since it was GUARENTEED payment for the new charges.

Bankruptcy judges are a lot more powerful then many realize. Especially when it comes to helping companies survey bad debt situations.


I am referring to that, junk bonds, and increasing debt.

C11 means less business because vendors and suppliers need the same businesses that are going bankrupt. They also need more consumers to buy more oil in a situation involving less business activity.

In the end, it's nice to imagine that it's only about "bad debt situations" and not a POD that goes in only one direction given limits to growth.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 07 Jul 2017, 17:34:52

At least a super power for a while yet. But:

"Reuters - U.S. oil drillers cut rigs this week for the first time since January and the pace of additions slowed this quarter due to declines in crude prices despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and end a multi-year supply glut. Analysts, however, noted the weekly decline in the rig count was likely just a brief pause in a drilling recovery expected to continue through at least 2019.

Drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to June 30, bringing the total rig count down to 756, still more than double the 341 rigs in the same week a year ago, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc said in its closely followed report on Friday.

That decline followed a record 23 consecutive weeks of rig additions, according to Baker Hughes data going back to 1987. Drillers have added rigs in 52 of the past 57 weeks since the start of June 2016. The pace of those additions, however, has slowed over the past few months with the decline in oil prices."
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 07 Jul 2017, 17:44:30

Rockman.
I think the decrease in drill activity should signal that the best of the "prime locations" identified by companies like EOG have either been drilled or companies are waiting for higher prices so that they don't waste the early flush production on low prices (that is what I would do).

Would be interesting to see where the reductions were and if there were any areas/basins that saw an increase in rig count.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 08 Jul 2017, 21:12:47

Ralfy - "C11 means less business because vendors and suppliers need the same businesses that are going bankrupt.". Actually just the opposite is generally true. If Company A flushes several $billion in bond debt and does so without having to liquidate any of its asserts its net revenue increases as well as its debt rating.

Even if it doesn't completely flush its bond/bank debt the " reorganization " of its debt (Chapter 11 is referred to as a "reorganization") the rates are generally reduced and the repayment period is extended. In essence the primary goal of the debt reorganization is to allow a company to expand operations in hopes of increasing revenue which would allow a greater opportunity to service its debt.

And that is done by Company A taking that increase in net revenue that can then be paid to the vendors and suppliers. IOW Chapter 11 filings will actually benefit those companies: more revenue spent on operations instead of repaying 100% of debt is good for the vendors. Also understand how vendors deal with operators with a problem dealing with their debt: the vendors require payment upfront. I've consulted for many small operators with questionable abilities to pay invoices. IOW more then once I've hand delivered a check to a vendor that then waited for it to clear the check before the followed up on their end.

As I pointed out early folks referring to the number of companies filing bankruptcy (typically Chapter 11) as the "death of the oil patch" have it 100% ass backwards. It actually allows those companies a chance to survive and potentially prosper. In my 41 years I've seen only one company liquidated. It's the bond investors that usually take the big hit: in Chapter 11 they are typically the lowest on the list of repayment priorities.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 08 Jul 2017, 21:32:56

ROCKMAN wrote:Ralfy - "C11 means less business because vendors and suppliers need the same businesses that are going bankrupt.". Actually just the opposite is generally true. If Company A flushes several $billion in bond debt and does so without having to liquidate any of its asserts its net revenue increases as well as its debt rating.

Even if it doesn't completely flush its bond/bank debt the " reorganization " of its debt (Chapter 11 is referred to as a "reorganization") the rates are generally reduced and the repayment period is extended. In essence the primary goal of the debt reorganization is to allow a company to expand operations in hopes of increasing revenue which would allow a greater opportunity to service its debt.

And that is done by Company A taking that increase in net revenue that can then be paid to the vendors and suppliers. IOW Chapter 11 filings will actually benefit those companies: more revenue spent on operations instead of repaying 100% of debt is good for the vendors. Also understand how vendors deal with operators with a problem dealing with their debt: the vendors require payment upfront. I've consulted for many small operators with questionable abilities to pay invoices. IOW more then once I've hand delivered a check to a vendor that then waited for it to clear the check before the followed up on their end.

As I pointed out early folks referring to the number of companies filing bankruptcy (typically Chapter 11) as the "death of the oil patch" have it 100% ass backwards. It actually allows those companies a chance to survive and potentially prosper. In my 41 years I've seen only one company liquidated. It's the bond investors that usually take the big hit: in Chapter 11 they are typically the lowest on the list of repayment priorities.


The magic word is "chance," and that leads to good things only in an imaginary world where there is no POD and no connection whatsoever between the finance and oil industries.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 09 Jul 2017, 19:56:09

ralfy wrote:The magic word is "chance," and that leads to good things only in an imaginary world where there is no POD and no connection whatsoever between the finance and oil industries.


No one ever said that. Can you not read, or did you learn this at LATOC and are just parroting something you heard there?
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 11:48:26

Ralfy - "The magic word is "chance," and that leads to good things only in an imaginary world". I apologize bro...I assumed too much when it comes to yours and others understanding of bankruptcy. So many were running around like their hair was on fire recounting how many energy companies had filed for bankruptcy. I should have explained the real dynamic at that time.

Above all else filing bankruptcy DOES NOT mean a company is going out of business. In fact, often just the opposite. In the case of Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings it is a legal tool used by companies to keep operating. Which is the primary goal of the bankruptcy judge. He will restructure a company's debt, often times completely eliminating obligations to the unsecured investors such as bond holders. The remaining debt is "reorganized" (as I described above) to allow the company to continue operations.

Of course clearing Chapter 11 doesn't mean a company is in great financial shape. But it does mean the have a chance to rebuild and do so in the REAL WORLD and not the imaginary world you mentioned. But don't take my word on it: here are the words directly from the US govt bankruptcy court:

"This chapter {Chapter 11} of the Bankruptcy Code generally provides for reorganization, usually involving a corporation or partnership. A chapter 11 debtor usually proposes a plan of reorganization to keep its business alive and pay creditors over time."

Here are more details then you would ever want to know:

http://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/ ... tcy-basics

And even in the case of a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing

{A chapter 7 bankruptcy case does not involve the filing of a plan of repayment as in chapter 11 or 13. Instead, the bankruptcy trustee gathers and sells the debtor's nonexempt assets and uses the proceeds of such assets to pay holders of claims (creditors) in accordance with the provisions of the Bankruptcy Code.}

the company doesn't necessarily disappear: they may have little or no assets but they have no debt either. They can still raise money from a variety of sources if they have a good enough story to tell. I once consulted for a company that did just that: went thru Chapter 7 (burning me for $11,000 in consulting fees) and then raised tens of $millions for a variety of projects including a big one in Colombia. BTW the SEC eventually charged them with fraud involving the Colombia project. The leopard can't change his spots. LOL.

None of the above is to say the 100+ companies that filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy are in great financial shape when they clear the court. But it certainly doesn't represent the "death of the oil business" as some have tried to portray it. In the real world those companies are actually using federal bankruptcy laws to survive and continue operating. How well they do or don't reform after Chapter 11 is a different issue. But the bankruptcy court allows them to stay in the game.

All those companies filing bankruptcy is not a sign of "death" but in reality a remission of the cancer (the debt) that would have killed those companies had not the federal govt provided them with very effective "chemotherapy". LOL.

I don't mean to be rude but all those pointing to the myriad of bankruptcy filings as the "end of times" have it completely ass backwards. Certainly not a time to party for many of those companies but not a wake either.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 11 Jul 2017, 20:59:01

ROCKMAN wrote:Ralfy - "The magic word is "chance," and that leads to good things only in an imaginary world". I apologize bro...I assumed too much when it comes to yours and others understanding of bankruptcy. So many were running around like their hair was on fire recounting how many energy companies had filed for bankruptcy. I should have explained the real dynamic at that time.

Above all else filing bankruptcy DOES NOT mean a company is going out of business. In fact, often just the opposite. In the case of Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings it is a legal tool used by companies to keep operating. Which is the primary goal of the bankruptcy judge. He will restructure a company's debt, often times completely eliminating obligations to the unsecured investors such as bond holders. The remaining debt is "reorganized" (as I described above) to allow the company to continue operations.

Of course clearing Chapter 11 doesn't mean a company is in great financial shape. But it does mean the have a chance to rebuild and do so in the REAL WORLD and not the imaginary world you mentioned. But don't take my word on it: here are the words directly from the US govt bankruptcy court:

"This chapter {Chapter 11} of the Bankruptcy Code generally provides for reorganization, usually involving a corporation or partnership. A chapter 11 debtor usually proposes a plan of reorganization to keep its business alive and pay creditors over time."

Here are more details then you would ever want to know:

http://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/ ... tcy-basics

And even in the case of a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing

{A chapter 7 bankruptcy case does not involve the filing of a plan of repayment as in chapter 11 or 13. Instead, the bankruptcy trustee gathers and sells the debtor's nonexempt assets and uses the proceeds of such assets to pay holders of claims (creditors) in accordance with the provisions of the Bankruptcy Code.}

the company doesn't necessarily disappear: they may have little or no assets but they have no debt either. They can still raise money from a variety of sources if they have a good enough story to tell. I once consulted for a company that did just that: went thru Chapter 7 (burning me for $11,000 in consulting fees) and then raised tens of $millions for a variety of projects including a big one in Colombia. BTW the SEC eventually charged them with fraud involving the Colombia project. The leopard can't change his spots. LOL.

None of the above is to say the 100+ companies that filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy are in great financial shape when they clear the court. But it certainly doesn't represent the "death of the oil business" as some have tried to portray it. In the real world those companies are actually using federal bankruptcy laws to survive and continue operating. How well they do or don't reform after Chapter 11 is a different issue. But the bankruptcy court allows them to stay in the game.

All those companies filing bankruptcy is not a sign of "death" but in reality a remission of the cancer (the debt) that would have killed those companies had not the federal govt provided them with very effective "chemotherapy". LOL.

I don't mean to be rude but all those pointing to the myriad of bankruptcy filings as the "end of times" have it completely ass backwards. Certainly not a time to party for many of those companies but not a wake either.


The only way to rebuild is for oil prices to go up, and to keep going up due to the need for continuous economic growth. But that can't happen because the global economy needs cheap oil, and more of it each time, to sustain superpowers dependent on growing global consumer markets. Otherwise, one can only "stay in the game" for a short while, and the reason for that involves peak oil, which is part of limits to growth:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse
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The Dark Side of America’s Rise to Oil Superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 11:40:11

The last time U.S. drillers pumped 10 million barrels of crude a day, Richard Nixon was in the White House. The first oil crisis hadn’t yet scared Americans into buying Toyotas, and fracking was an experimental technique a handful of engineers were trying, with meager success, to popularize. It was 1970, and oil sold for $1.80 a barrel. Almost five decades later, with oil hovering near $65 a barrel, daily U.S. crude output is about to hit the eight-digit mark again. It’s a significant milestone on the way to fulfilling a dream that a generation ago seemed far-fetched: By the end of the year, the U.S. may well be the world’s biggest oil producer. With that, America takes a big step toward energy independence. The U.S. crowing from the top of a hill long occupied by Saudi Arabia or Russia would scramble geopolitics.


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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 03:04:06

More Saudi-America nonsense. To be just oil independent the USA would have to produce double that 1970 record every day. Don't get me wrong, I would rather send my money to producers employing Americans to get the fuel I need for my lifestyle than send that money overseas to people who dislike me for that very lifestyle. But it is a far cry from setting a new domestic production record to being energy independent when we are still importing millions of barrels of oil every day while also drawing down the commercial stockpile and the SPR. Once those commercial stocks are gone and the SPR sale legislation expires we will either need to import another MM/bbl/d or produce it domestically just to maintain current levels of consumption.
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EIA Production estimates are way off the mark and so too may

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 14:50:52


The term energy dominance has been eschewed by the US Department of Energy as the end game of the shale revolution with the resurgence of production to all time highs (oil, natural gas and NGL’s). Politicians and the media are singularly focused on when, not if US oil production will eclipse Russia (at 11.3 million bpd) and Saudi Arabia at (10.0 million bpd constrained). This viewpoint is understandable as oil is the largest hydrocarbon energy source and is fungible and easily transported. Furthermore, as we all know, production and control of oil has been one of the most important if not the most important geo-political levers throughout history, with strategic alliances and wars fought over it. So, it is understandable why the US is rightfully pleased as punch that its shale oil resources are increasingly being developed creating monthly record


EIA Production estimates are way off the mark and so too may be future United States energy dominance
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